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MLB · Track Record

MLB Projection Accuracy

Every morning we archive the projections we published. Every night the box scores grade them. This page is that ledger: no cherry-picking, no retro edits, updated daily.

Scoring window: Apr 24, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026 · DraftKings main slates · players who took the field only

10,049
Player-games scored
across 81 slate days
7.28
Avg error (DK pts)
mean absolute error, projection vs actual
0.345
Correlation
projection to actual, all scored players
1.38x
Top-10 value edge
our top value plays averaged 10.1 actual DK pts vs the 7.3 slate average

Measured against winners

The test that matters: when a lineup actually cashed at the top of a GPP, were its players on our board that morning?

3.1 of 10

Average number of players from a top GPP finish that sat in our top-30 board (by projection or value) the same morning, across 148 top-finishing lineups we could grade against our archive.

23%

of those lineups had 6 or more of their 10 players on our board. A winning roster is mostly findable before lock; the optimizer's job is assembling it.

Slate sizeWinning scores studiedMedian winnerBest
2-4 games 66 223.4 DK pts 358.0
5-7 games 44 308.8 DK pts 395.8
8-10 games 6 390.3 DK pts 396.7

What first place has actually required, from the corpus of real DraftKings GPP results behind the optimizer's Historical Pattern Score.

Week by week

Recent scoring weeks. Baseball is loud; the sample sizes are the point.

Week ofSlate daysPlayers scoredAvg error (DK pts)
Aug 10, 2026 5 794 7.09
Aug 3, 2026 6 886 7.39
Jul 27, 2026 7 1,102 6.91
Jul 20, 2026 7 1,231 7.08
Jul 13, 2026 2 382 7.37
Jul 6, 2026 6 820 7.52
Jun 29, 2026 5 800 7.23
Jun 22, 2026 4 508 6.97
Jun 15, 2026 1 206 7.10
Jun 8, 2026 5 726 7.45

How this is scored

The methodology, including the parts that do not flatter us.

  • What gets graded: the projections we published to the DraftKings main slate each morning, archived at publish time. The grade is each player's actual DraftKings score that night.
  • Late scratches are excluded, not zeroed. A player who never took the field is a lineup-news problem, not a projection error. 3,295 player-slate entries were excluded on that basis and are counted here so you can see the size of it.
  • Our projections run optimistic. On average, actuals come in about 4.2 DK points below projection. They are a ranking tool: the correlation and the value edge above are the honest measures of whether the ORDER is right, and the order is what builds lineups.
  • The winners corpus is the set of top-finishing lineups from real DraftKings GPPs, the same data behind the optimizer's Historical Pattern Score. Coverage is only computed where a lineup's exact slate exists in our archive, matched by date and slate size.
  • Nothing is regenerated after the fact. The archive is written before lock; this page cannot be improved retroactively, only by projecting better tomorrow.
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