MLB · Track Record
MLB Projection Accuracy
Every morning we archive the projections we published. Every night the box scores grade them. This page is that ledger: no cherry-picking, no retro edits, updated daily.
Scoring window: Sep 22, 2026 to Sep 23, 2026 · DraftKings main slates · players who took the field only
399
Player-games scored
across 2 slate days
5.58
Avg error (DK pts)
mean absolute error, projection vs actual
0.343
Correlation
projection to actual, all scored players
0.46x
Top-10 value edge
our top value plays averaged 3.3 actual DK pts vs the 7.2 slate average
Measured against winners
The test that matters: when a lineup actually cashed at the top of a GPP, were its players on our board that morning?
| Slate size | Winning scores studied | Median winner | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-4 games | 468 | 215.6 DK pts | 450.3 |
| 5-7 games | 327 | 307.9 DK pts | 444.1 |
| 8-10 games | 33 | 303.7 DK pts | 407.6 |
What first place has actually required, from the corpus of real DraftKings GPP results behind the optimizer's Historical Pattern Score.
Week by week
Recent scoring weeks. Baseball is loud; the sample sizes are the point.
| Week of | Slate days | Players scored | Avg error (DK pts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2026 | 2 | 399 | 5.58 |
How this is scored
The methodology, including the parts that do not flatter us.
- What gets graded: the projections we published to the DraftKings main slate each morning, archived at publish time. The grade is each player's actual DraftKings score that night.
- Late scratches are excluded, not zeroed. A player who never took the field is a lineup-news problem, not a projection error. 3 player-slate entries were excluded on that basis and are counted here so you can see the size of it.
- Our projections run optimistic. On average, actuals come in about 0.7 DK points below projection. They are a ranking tool: the correlation and the value edge above are the honest measures of whether the ORDER is right, and the order is what builds lineups.
- The winners corpus is top-finishing lineups from real DraftKings GPPs, the same data behind the optimizer's Historical Pattern Score. Coverage is only computed where a lineup's exact slate exists in our archive, matched by date and slate size.
- Nothing is regenerated after the fact. The archive is written before lock; this page cannot be improved retroactively, only by projecting better tomorrow.