Pirates vs Phillies Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Apr 12th 2024

Alright sports junkies, strap in, because we’re setting sail on the high seas of baseball as the 9W-4L Pittsburgh Pirates drop anchor at Citizens Bank Park, ready to cross bats with the 7W-6L Philadelphia Phillies. The first pitch is set to fly at 06:40PM EST, so make sure you’re planted firmly on your barstool, beer in hand. Both teams are hot on the heels of the National League conference leaders, with the Pirates just a whisper away and the Phillies trailing by a single game. The over/under is pegged at 9.0, and if you’re a betting man or woman, the Pirates are sitting pretty at +134 while the Phillies are the chalk at -160. The Phillies are riding high on their recent 5-1 victory over the Pirates, who will be looking to turn the tide after their loss. The weather’s shaping up to be a classic baseball evening; partly cloudy skies, a brisk westerly wind at 17.4 mph, and a comfortable 60.1°. Just remember, in this battle of Pirates and Phillies, it’s not just about stealing bases, it’s about stealing the show!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 12, 2024 06:40PM EST

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the W at 17.4 mph. Temperature is at 60.1° with 86% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	PIT ML	PHI ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+134	-160	9.0	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+139	-165	9.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+5	-5	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

91W-155L

41.8% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

143W-101L

58.2% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/11/24	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	1	Under	-3.0
04/11/24	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	5	Under	-3.0
07/28/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	2	Under	-6.0
07/28/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	1	Under	-6.0
07/29/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	6	Over	+4.0
07/29/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	7	Over	+4.0
07/30/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	4	Over	+1.0
07/30/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	6	Over	+1.0
09/26/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	2	Under	-4.0
09/26/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	3	Under	-4.0
09/27/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	6	Over	+4.0
09/27/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	7	Over	+4.0
09/28/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	3	Under	-4.0
09/28/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	2	Under	-4.0

Pirates Vs Over/Under

Phillies Vs Over/Under

Bailey Falter

ERA 5.355 | IP 80.7 | 2.0W-9.0L | KO 60.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-06-24	vsBAL	4-5W	6.0	1	0	1	Push
03-31-24	@MIA	9-7W	4.0	5	6	2	Over
09-23-23	@CIN	13-12W	2.0	9	8	1	Over
09-19-23	@CHC	1-14L	1.0	1	2	1	Over
09-12-23	vsWAS	1-5W	6.0	4	1	4	Under
09-06-23	vsMIL	4-5W	3.7	1	0	3	Push
09-02-23	@STL	7-6W	3.7	1	1	2	Over
08-27-23	vsCHC	10-1L	4.7	7	6	3	Over
08-21-23	vsSTL	1-11W	6.0	3	1	8	Over
08-15-23	@NYM	7-4W	5.3	4	1	5	Over

Ranger Suarez

ERA 4.176 | IP 125.0 | 4.0W-6.0L | KO 119.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-07-24	@WAS	2-3L	4.3	6	3	1	Under
04-01-24	vsCIN	6-3L	5.0	5	2	8	Push
09-30-23	@NYM	4-11L	1.0	0	0	1	Over
09-24-23	vsNYM	2-5W	7.0	3	2	10	Under
09-19-23	@ATL	3-9L	4.0	7	3	2	Over
09-13-23	vsATL	4-1L	7.3	8	4	10	Under
09-08-23	vsMIA	3-2L	5.0	4	0	4	Under
08-30-23	vsLAA	10-8L	4.7	7	5	5	Over
08-25-23	vsSTL	2-7W	6.0	5	2	6	Push
08-19-23	@WAS	12-3W	6.0	7	3	5	Over
04-11-24	vsPIT	1-5W	6.0	2	0	8	Under
04-06-24	@WAS	5-2W	6.0	4	2	4	Under
03-31-24	vsATL	4-5W	5.0	3	3	7	Push
09-27-23	vsPIT	6-7W	4.7	9	6	4	Over
09-21-23	vsNYM	4-5W	6.7	5	4	6	Push
09-16-23	@STL	6-1W	6.0	4	1	5	Under
09-10-23	vsMIA	5-4L	6.3	2	3	10	Push
09-03-23	@MIL	4-2W	4.0	5	2	5	Under
08-13-23	vsMIN	3-0L	6.3	6	2	8	Under
08-08-23	vsWAS	5-4L	5.7	6	2	5	Push

Pirates Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/13	vs PHI	1-5L	7	0	Under
04/11	@ DET	3-5L	8	2	Under
04/10	@ DET	7-4W	12	1	Over
04/09	@ BAL	3-2W	7	0	Under
04/08	@ BAL	5-4W	11	1	Push
04/07	@ BAL	2-5L	6	2	Under
04/06	vs WAS	7-4W	11	1	Over
04/05	vs WAS	3-5L	4	1	Under
04/03	vs WAS	8-4W	15	0	Over
04/02	vs MIA	9-7W	11	1	Over
04/01	vs MIA	9-3W	16	0	Over
03/31	vs MIA	7-2W	10	0	Push
03/30	vs MIA	6-5W	9	3	Over
10/03	@ MIA	3-0W	6	0	Under
10/02	@ MIA	3-7L	12	0	Over

Phillies Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/13	@ PIT	5-1W	7	3	Under
04/12	vs STL	4-3W	8	0	Under
04/11	vs STL	0-3L	8	0	Under
04/10	vs STL	5-3W	10	1	Under
04/09	vs WAS	2-3L	5	1	Under
04/08	vs WAS	5-2W	9	1	Under
04/07	vs WAS	4-0W	9	0	Under
04/05	@ CIN	1-4L	6	1	Under
04/04	@ CIN	9-4W	9	4	Over
04/03	@ CIN	3-6L	7	0	Push
04/02	@ ATL	5-4W	9	1	Push
04/01	@ ATL	4-12L	8	1	Over
03/31	@ ATL	3-9L	5	1	Over
10/03	vs NYM	9-1W	12	2	Over
10/02	vs NYM	3-4L	7	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Pittsburgh Pirates	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Connor Joe	9.0	11.8	0.244	0.416	38.4%	80.0%	2.7%
#2 Bryan Reynolds	8.4	11.0	0.264	0.464	37.0%	83.4%	4.2%
#3 Ke’Bryan Hayes	8.2	10.5	0.271	0.449	32.7%	77.6%	2.9%
#4 Andrew McCutchen	8.2	10.8	0.256	0.391	45.9%	85.0%	2.8%
#5 Edward Olivares	7.2	9.3	0.263	0.452	34.5%	79.7%	3.4%
#6 Henry Davis	6.7	8.8	0.215	0.354	33.6%	69.1%	3.1%
#7 Oneil Cruz	6.6	8.7	0.25	0.375	46.9%	84.4%	3.1%
#8 Michael A. Taylor	6.4	8.4	0.218	0.441	29.9%	74.0%	5.9%
#9 Jared Triolo	5.5	7.2	0.299	0.401	45.2%	85.3%	1.7%

Philadelphia Phillies	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Kyle Schwarber	9.4	13.0	0.198	0.477	42.5%	90.2%	8.1%
#2 Trea Turner	9.0	11.6	0.268	0.461	34.8%	80.9%	4.1%
#3 Bryce Harper	8.9	11.8	0.293	0.499	47.9%	97.8%	4.6%
#4 J.T. Realmuto	8.4	11.0	0.252	0.454	34.4%	79.8%	4.1%
#5 Alec Bohm	6.8	9.0	0.276	0.44	35.9%	79.8%	3.6%
#6 Brandon Marsh	7.4	9.8	0.279	0.461	43.6%	89.8%	3.0%
#7 Nick Castellanos	6.6	8.6	0.273	0.478	33.4%	81.2%	4.7%
#7 Whit Merrifield	6.9	8.9	0.271	0.382	34.3%	72.5%	2.0%
#8 Edmundo Sosa	6.7	8.6	0.25	0.417	31.2%	72.8%	3.3%
#8 Bryson Stott	6.5	8.3	0.278	0.418	35.6%	77.3%	2.6%
#9 Johan Rojas	6.0	7.7	0.302	0.43	36.2%	79.2%	1.3%