Strategy and Stats for 05/09/24 MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

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As the clocks strike 1:10 PM EST today, the Major League Baseball universe gears up for an exhilarating slate of 7 games, promising a spectacle of fantasy riches. Among these, the spotlight beams brightest on Coors Field where the San Francisco Giants clash with the Colorado Rockies at 3:10 PM EST. With the Over/Under tantalizingly set at 9.5, fantasy managers are buzzing, anticipating a high-scoring affair. This game not only promises to be the epicenter of today’s action but also a fertile ground for drafting hitters who could amass significant points. As we dive deeper into today’s matchups, keep an eye on the top projected players at each position, whose recent performances and matchups suggest they are poised to dominate. This introduction sets the stage for a detailed breakdown of each game, helping you craft the ultimate lineup.

GameTime Away Team Home Team O/U Fav
1:10 PM EST Diamondbacks 17-20 Reds 16-20 9.0 CIN -124
1:10 PM EST Mariners 20-17 Twins 21-15 7.0 MIN -132
3:10 PM EST Giants 17-21 Rockies 8-28 9.5 SF -158
5:05 PM EST Astros 12-24 Yankees 25-13 9.0 NYY -133
7:40 PM EST Guardians 24-13 White Sox 9-28 8.0 CLE -149
7:40 PM EST Cardinals 15-21 Brewers 21-15 8.5 MIL -116
9:38 PM EST Royals 22-16 Angels 14-23 8.5 KC -116

Top 1B Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Christian Walker ($4800), Diamondbacks – Projected 12.8 pts

Christian Walker has shown a notable uptick in his performance over the recent games, making him a compelling choice in today’s DFS lineup. Over the last ten games, Walker has averaged 9.3 DraftKings points per game, a 19.5% increase from his previous ten-game stretch. His matchup against Hunter Greene, who ranks #8 in hits allowed per game, positions Walker favorably to exploit these weaknesses. Given his recent surge in home runs and total bases, Walker’s 2.7 DFS value score indicates a strong value at his current salary.

None ($4500), Royals – Projected 11.3 pts

Despite the Royals’ overall lower ranking in MLB for generating fantasy points, the player known as None has demonstrated significant improvement in his recent outings. With an average of 7.5 DraftKings points in the last ten games—a 34.9% increase—None is showing potential. Facing Reid Detmers, who is #5 in hits allowed per game, could provide None with opportunities to maintain or even exceed his recent performance levels. His DFS value score of 2.5 classifies him as having strong value, making him a viable pick for today’s games.

Top Second Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Ketel Marte ($5200), Arizona Diamondbacks – Projected 12.1 pts

Ketel Marte’s recent performance indicates a slight downturn, with a -35.1% drop in DraftKings points per game over the last 10 games compared to the previous set. Despite this, Marte’s matchup against Hunter Greene, who ranks #8 in hits allowed per game, positions him to potentially exploit these stats for a rebound. His current DFS value score stands at 2.3, categorizing him as a core value pick. Marte’s ability to capitalize on Greene’s susceptibility to giving up hits could be key in today’s game, making him a strategic, if somewhat risky, play.

Thairo Estrada ($4200), San Francisco Giants – Projected 11.9 pts

Thairo Estrada shows a promising uptrend with a 62.4% increase in DraftKings points per game in his last 10 outings compared to the 10 games prior. Facing Cal Quantrill, who is #2 in hits allowed per game, Estrada’s opportunity to score is significantly high. His DFS value score of 2.8 places him in the strong value category. Estrada’s consistent hitting and the favorable pitcher matchup make him an attractive option for today’s DFS lineups, offering both reliability and upside.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Jose Ramirez ($6000), Cleveland – Projected 12.8 pts

Jose Ramirez, despite a recent dip in his performance metrics, remains a pivotal player for DFS lineups today. Over his last 10 games, Ramirez has seen a decrease in production across most categories, including a significant drop in hits per game and total bases. However, his ability to draw walks has impressively increased, suggesting a potential for high on-base percentage. Facing Erick Fedde, who ranks sixth in hits allowed per game, Ramirez has a favorable matchup that could see him bounce back. His DFS value score of 2.1 positions him as a core value pick at third base.

Matt Chapman ($5100), San Francisco – Projected 11.6 pts

Matt Chapman’s recent performance has been less than stellar, with a notable decline in his DraftKings points per game and total bases. However, his matchup against Cal Quantrill, who is second in hits allowed per game, provides a silver lining for potential improvement. Despite the downturn, Chapman has managed to increase his singles and walks, which could hint at an upcoming positive regression. With a DFS value score of 2.3, Chapman offers core value and could be a strategic, lower-cost inclusion in today’s fantasy lineups.

Analyzing Top Shortstops for Today’s DFS Slate

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6300), Royals – Projected 13.8 pts

Bobby Witt Jr. has been a beacon of consistency for the Royals, especially in his recent performances. Over his last ten games, Witt Jr. has notched an impressive 13.6 DraftKings points per game, a significant increase from the 9.44 points in the previous ten-game stretch. This uptick of 44.1% in fantasy points is particularly noteworthy. His ability to connect with the ball has improved, with a 17.1% increase in hits per game, and his discipline at the plate is evident from a 263.6% increase in walks per game. Facing Reid Detmers, who ranks fifth in hits allowed per game, Witt Jr.’s prospects look promising. His DFS value score stands at 2.2, positioning him as a core value pick for today’s games.

Elly De La Cruz ($6000), Reds – Projected 13.1 pts

Elly De La Cruz, on the other hand, presents a more challenging case. His recent performance has seen a drastic downturn, with only 6.1 DraftKings points on average over the last ten games, a sharp decline of -63.4% compared to his previous form. His hit rate has dropped by -45.9%, and his runs scored have plummeted by -66.3%. Despite these struggles, De La Cruz is facing Slade Cecconi, who is ranked eleventh in hits allowed per game, which might offer some room for recovery. However, his current DFS value score is 2.2, categorizing him as a core value player but with significant risks attached.

Top Catcher Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

William Contreras ($5600), Brewers – Projected 10.0 pts

William Contreras has been a consistent performer for the Brewers, averaging 8.2 DraftKings points over his last 10 games. Despite a slight dip in performance compared to his previous 10 games, where he averaged 9.56 points, Contreras remains a viable option. His matchup against Sonny Gray, who ranks #10 in hits allowed per game, presents both challenges and opportunities. Contreras has shown resilience, particularly in doubles where he’s seen a significant increase of 127.3%. However, his overall hitting and run production have decreased, which is reflected in his DFS value score of 1.8. This score suggests caution, as his current form and matchup might not justify his $5600 salary in today’s slate.

Willson Contreras ($5300), Cardinals – Projected 10.0 pts

Willson Contreras, playing for the Cardinals, comes into this game with an average of 8.6 DraftKings points in his last 10 appearances, slightly down from 9.33 in the games prior. Facing Tobias Myers of the Brewers, who is notably generous in allowing hits, could be advantageous for Contreras. He has shown an ability to capitalize on such matchups, notably improving his home run rate by 81.8%. Despite a decrease in singles and doubles, his total bases per game have only slightly decreased, and his runs per game have notably increased by 42.9%. With a DFS value score of 1.9, Contreras is another player where careful consideration is advised given the cost-performance ratio in today’s DFS context.

Top Outfielder Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Yordan Alvarez ($8400), Astros – Projected 14.5 pts

Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros shows a mixed bag of recent performances but remains a critical player in daily fantasy sports. Over his last ten games, Alvarez has seen an increase in DraftKings points per game, rising to 5.8 from 4.89, marking an 18.6% improvement. His FanDuel points also surged by 25.8%. Despite a decrease in singles and runs scored, Alvarez has notably increased his home runs per game by 81.8% and walks by the same margin. Facing Marcus Stroman, who ranks fourth in hits allowed per game, Alvarez’s potential for high fantasy points could be significant. However, his DFS value score of 1.7 suggests caution, as his high salary might not translate into equivalent fantasy points.

Corbin Carroll ($5000), Diamondbacks – Projected 14.1 pts

Corbin Carroll offers a promising option for DFS players looking for value. With a DraftKings salary of just $5000, Carroll has maintained a steady performance, averaging 5.5 points over his last ten games. Although this represents a slight decrease of -10.0% from his previous ten-game stretch, his total bases per game have significantly increased by 79.1%. Facing Hunter Greene, who is ranked eighth for hits allowed per game, Carroll’s ability to capitalize on this matchup could be key. His DFS value score of 2.8 indicates strong potential for return on investment, making him an attractive pick in today’s slate.

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