Arizona Diamondbacks

59-52

Cleveland Guardians

56-56

1:40 PM ET Progressive Field DBACKS.TV Day GameWeekend

Back the under at 8.0 with Gavin Williams overmatching a strikeout-prone Arizona lineup on a day the market barely sees value on either side.

Williams brings elite swing-and-miss against two offenses that combine for a 4.3-run ceiling and a league-worst Cleveland bat.

SidePASS, CLE -168 is too steep for a league-worst offense.

TotalBET UNDER 8.0, Williams neutralizes a whiff-heavy Arizona bat.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Williams owns a 3.71 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 133.1 innings.
Cleveland ranks dead last, 30/30, at 3.94 runs per game.
Arizona whiffs often, 28/30 with 7.24 strikeouts per game.

Best Bet Under 8.0 is the highest-conviction play with Williams facing two low-output offenses.

Total8.0

ARI Win39%

CLE Win63%

Implied ARI3.7

Implied CLE4.3

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

CLE 1.5

ARI ML

+156 39%

CLE ML

-168 63%

ARI3.7

CLE4.3

The de-vigged implied totals sit at ARI 3.7 and CLE 4.3, and Cleveland is priced up to -168 largely on the pitching mismatch. That number feels rich for a bottom-ranked offense, so the moneyline is not where the value lives. The total at 8.0 is the cleaner angle, sitting right at both teams' combined implied ceiling.

Pitching Matchup

ARI

Merrill Kelly

8-8 · 109.1 IP

ERA

4.86

WHIP

1.45

K/9

5.9

BB/9

3.5

CLE

Gavin Williams

10-6 · 133.1 IP

ERA

3.71

WHIP

1.07

K/9

11.4

BB/9

2.6

Williams is the clear edge with an 11.36 K/9 and tidy 2.57 BB/9, missing bats and limiting hits at a 7.10 H/9 clip. Kelly profiles as the softer arm, walking 3.46 per nine and surrendering a 9.57 H/9 with just a 5.86 K/9. Command and stuff both tilt decisively to Cleveland's starter here.

Offense Comparison

ARIrank of 30CLE

4.6 12 Runs / G 30 3.9

0.243 18 AVG 28 0.230

0.96 27 HR / G 28 0.96

7.24 28 K / G 15 8.29

Arizona's higher-ranked offense faces a buzzsaw in Williams, and its 28th-ranked strikeout tendency plays right into his swing-and-miss profile. Cleveland's lineup is the league's worst run producer and 28th in average, so even against a hittable Kelly the ceiling is capped. Neither side offers a slam-dunk stack, though Kelly's walks give Cleveland's on-base bats a path.

Weather & Park

4 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Patchy rain nearby

Temp

76°

Humidity

85%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Outdoor day game at 76F with a light 4 mph breeze out to left field flagged as a slight positive for offense, but patchy rain lingers nearby. The wind nudge is modest and does not override two weak-scoring profiles.

DFS Angles

If forced into a stack, lean Cleveland's on-base bats against Kelly's 3.46 BB/9, with the light wind to left offering marginal help. Arizona hitters are tougher to trust into Williams' strikeout profile.

Target Gavin Williams as the premier arm with double-digit strikeout upside; fade Merrill Kelly given his 4.86 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

ARI top bats

Corbin Carroll 11.7 proj · $5,700 · 2.1x
Gabriel Moreno 10.4 proj · $4,600 · 2.3x
Ketel Marte 10.1 proj · $5,100 · 2.0x
Geraldo Perdomo 9.9 proj · $4,300 · 2.3x
Nolan Arenado 8.3 proj · $3,700 · 2.3x

CLE top bats

Jose Ramirez 12.5 proj · $5,200 · 2.4x
Chase DeLauter 11.0 proj · $4,200 · 2.6x
Steven Kwan 10.0 proj · $3,300 · 3.0x
Kyle Manzardo 9.2 proj · $3,100 · 3.0x
Travis Bazzana 9.1 proj · $4,400 · 2.1x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Gavin Williams - strikeouts over lean - 11.36 K/9 against a 28th-ranked whiff offense.
Steven Kwan - hits over lean - projects a slate-best 1.81 hits at league-min value.
Jose Ramirez - total bases lean - top projected bat at 12.5 fpts versus soft Kelly.
Corbin Carroll - muted expectations - 11.7 fpts but faces Williams' elite stuff.

On watch