Atlanta Braves

62-43

New York Mets

44-62

7:10 PM ET Citi Field SNY Divisional

Back the Braves on the moneyline at -118, the sharper offense against a thin sample arm.

Atlanta's top-6 lineup faces a Mets starter with only 23.1 innings of track record.

SideBET AWAY ML at ATL -118.

TotalPASS, the 8.5 matches the combined implied 8.5.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Braves score 4.95 runs/game, rank 6, versus Mets rank 27.
Thornton owns just 23.1 IP, a tiny sample to trust.
ATL implied 4.3 edges NYM 4.2 despite home field.

Best Bet Braves moneyline at -118 is the highest-conviction play tonight.

Total8.5

ATL Win54%

NYM Win50%

Implied ATL4.3

Implied NYM4.2

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

NYM 1.5

ATL ML

-118 54%

NYM ML

+100 50%

ATL4.3

NYM4.2

The de-vigged team totals sit nearly even at ATL 4.3 and NYM 4.2, and ATL -118 barely prices in the offensive gap. That looks like a soft number given the lineup rank disparity, offering slight value on the Braves side. The total of 8.5 sits right at the combined implied 8.5, so there is no clear edge on the number itself.

Pitching Matchup

ATL

Martin Perez

6-6 · 85.1 IP

ERA

3.38

WHIP

1.20

K/9

6.9

BB/9

3.8

NYM

Zac Thornton

1-1 · 23.1 IP

ERA

1.93

WHIP

0.86

K/9

6.6

BB/9

2.3

Thornton flashes elite ratios, a 1.93 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, but across only 23.1 innings that number invites heavy regression. Perez is the more established arm at 3.38 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 85.1 frames, though his 3.81 BB/9 and 6.87 K/9 signal a contact profile. Neither misses many bats, so the command edge tilts to the small-sample Thornton on paper while Perez carries the safer volume.

Offense Comparison

ATLrank of 30NYM

5.0 6 Runs / G 27 4.1

0.249 9 AVG 26 0.233

1.32 4 HR / G 14 1.18

8.10 23 K / G 13 8.42

Atlanta brings real thump with 1.32 HR/game, rank 4, led by Acuna, Olson, and Baldwin, giving strong stack appeal against an unproven starter. The Mets counter with a rank-26 average and rank-27 scoring, leaning on Lindor and Alvarez to spark a lineup that struggles to string hits. Braves' power depth outmatches New York's more punchless contact shape here.

Weather & Park

5 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

74°

Humidity

76%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Outdoor at Citi Field with sunny skies, 74F, and a 4 mph wind out to center flagged as a positive for run scoring. Conditions modestly favor the ball carrying rather than suppressing offense.