Los Angeles Dodgers

69-44

Chicago Cubs

64-49

8:05 PM ET Wrigley Field SportsNet LA

Back Tarik Skubal and the Dodgers on the road, with LAD -198 the cleanest lean on the board.

Skubal's elite strikeout and command profile towers over Assad while both offenses rank top-3 in runs.

SideBET AWAY ML at LAD -198

TotalPASS on the total of 9.0

Strong7/10

Confidence

Skubal's 2.79 ERA and 0.91 WHIP dwarf Assad's 3.75 and 1.16.
Skubal fans 10.85 per nine versus Assad's modest 6.24 K/9.
LAD implied 5.0 runs beats CHC's 4.0 in the market.

Best Bet Los Angeles moneyline at -198, riding Skubal's clear pitching advantage.

Total9.0

LAD Win66%

CHC Win35%

Implied LAD5.0

Implied CHC4.0

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

CHC 1.5

LAD ML

-198 66%

CHC ML

+182 35%

LAD5.0

CHC4.0

The de-vigged implied totals sit at LAD 5.0 and CHC 4.0, and given Skubal's mound edge that CHC number looks fair to slightly generous. LAD -198 is a steep price but aligns with the pitching gap. The total of 9.0 offers no obvious soft side worth chasing.

Pitching Matchup

LAD

Tarik Skubal

7-5 · 96.2 IP

ERA

2.79

WHIP

0.91

K/9

10.9

BB/9

1.3

CHC

Javier Assad

6-1 · 69.2 IP

ERA

3.75

WHIP

1.16

K/9

6.2

BB/9

2.3

Skubal is the far superior arm, pairing a 10.85 K/9 with elite 1.31 BB/9 command over 96.2 innings, giving Los Angeles a decisive edge on the mound. Assad misses fewer bats at 6.24 K/9 and allows more traffic with a 1.16 WHIP and 8.19 H/9. Advantage clearly LAD.

Offense Comparison

LADrank of 30CHC

5.1 3 Runs / G 2 5.1

0.263 1 AVG 10 0.248

1.28 7 HR / G 9 1.23

7.86 25 K / G 11 8.61

The Dodgers own the league-best 0.263 team AVG and rank 3rd in runs, a deep contact lineup that punishes a lower-strikeout starter like Assad. Chicago counters as the 2nd-ranked scoring offense at 5.13 runs per game but strikes out more often at 8.61 per game, a tougher matchup against Skubal's swing-and-miss stuff. Both lineups carry stack appeal, but LAD's contact profile fits the matchup better.

Weather & Park

7 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

70°

Humidity

87%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Wrigley is outdoor with sunny 70F skies and a 7 mph wind blowing out to left field, a positive-impact breeze that can nudge fly balls and modestly aid run scoring.

DFS Angles

Stack the Dodgers against Assad's contact-friendly profile, as LAD's league-best 0.263 AVG plays up with the wind blowing out to left. A secondary Cubs mini-stack is viable given their 2nd-ranked offense and the positive breeze.

Skubal is the premium DFS target given his 10.85 K/9 and 0.91 WHIP against a lineup that whiffs 8.61 times per game. Assad is a fade at his strikeout rate facing the top contact offense in baseball.

LAD top bats

Shohei Ohtani 16.7 proj · $6,400 · 2.6x
Freddie Freeman 13.6 proj · $5,400 · 2.5x
Andy Pages 12.0 proj · $4,900 · 2.5x
Tommy Edman 11.5 proj · $4,800 · 2.4x
Kyle Tucker 11.0 proj · $4,200 · 2.6x

CHC top bats

Seiya Suzuki 9.6 proj · $5,200 · 1.8x
Pete Crow-Armstrong 9.2 proj · $6,300 · 1.5x
Alex Bregman 8.7 proj · $4,200 · 2.1x
Michael Busch 8.2 proj · $4,300 · 1.9x
Carson Kelly 8.2 proj · $3,300 · 2.5x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Shohei Ohtani - over hits lean - projects a team-high 1.90 hits atop the order.
Freddie Freeman - RBI lean - 0.75 projected RBI hitting third for a top-3 offense.
Andy Pages - over total bases lean - 0.29 projected HR with wind blowing out.
Seiya Suzuki - hits lean - leads Cubs bats at 9.6 projected fpts.

On watch