Los Angeles Dodgers

64-38

Philadelphia Phillies

56-46

6:40 PM ET Citizens Bank Park NBCSP

Back Philadelphia at even money with Zack Wheeler on the mound as the market's best value.

Wheeler is the clear pitching edge yet the Phillies sit as a home pick-em at +100.

SideBET HOME ML at PHI +100.

TotalPASS at 9.5, the price fairly balances Wheeler against the wind.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Wheeler owns a 2.16 ERA and 0.88 WHIP versus Wrobleski's 1.01.
Wheeler's 10.53 K/9 dwarfs Wrobleski's modest 6.78 mark.
Phillies land +100 despite implied totals nearly even at 4.7-4.8.

Best Bet Phillies moneyline at +100 with Wheeler pitching at home is the highest-conviction play.

Total9.5

LAD Win54%

PHI Win50%

Implied LAD4.8

Implied PHI4.7

Vegas / Market

Total

9.5

Run line

PHI 1.5

LAD ML

-118 54%

PHI ML

+100 50%

LAD4.8

PHI4.7

The de-vigged team totals sit almost level at LAD 4.8 and PHI 4.7, yet Philadelphia is priced at +100 while carrying the stronger starter, which reads as a soft home number. Getting even money on the side with the pitching edge beats my read. The total at 9.5 is efficiently priced given the offset of Wheeler's ceiling and the positive wind.

Pitching Matchup

LAD

Justin Wrobleski

11-2 · 106.2 IP

ERA

2.62

WHIP

1.01

K/9

6.8

BB/9

1.8

PHI

Zack Wheeler

10-2 · 100.0 IP

ERA

2.16

WHIP

0.88

K/9

10.5

BB/9

2.0

Wheeler is the superior arm here, missing bats at a 10.53 K/9 clip with elite command at 1.98 BB/9 and league-best contact suppression. Wrobleski has been excellent in his own right with a 1.01 WHIP and tiny 1.78 BB/9, but his 6.78 K/9 means he relies on soft contact rather than swing-and-miss. Edge to Wheeler on raw stuff and strikeout upside.

Offense Comparison

LADrank of 30PHI

5.2 3 Runs / G 18 4.3

0.260 2 AVG 24 0.236

1.29 8 HR / G 7 1.30

7.93 25 K / G 7 8.86

The Dodgers bring the deeper, more balanced lineup, ranking 3rd in runs and 2nd in average, but their 25th-ranked strikeout tendency plays right into Wheeler's whiff profile. Philadelphia is more boom-or-bust, ranking 7th in homers but only 24th in average and 7th-most in strikeouts, making them a spot-stack against Wrobleski's contact-oriented approach. Both offenses have real power, so single-game leverage swings on who avoids the punchout.

Weather & Park

9 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Partly cloudy

Temp

78°

Humidity

79%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Cit=zens Bank Park is outdoors with 78F, 79% humidity, and a 9 mph wind blowing out to center noted as a positive run influence, a mild boost to fly-ball carry.

DFS Angles

Lean a Phillies mini-stack against Wrobleski's low-strikeout profile, with the wind out to center aiding their 7th-ranked power; Schwarber and Harper anchor it.

Target Wheeler as the premium DFS arm given his 10.53 K/9 and matchup with a strikeout-prone Dodgers lineup; Wrobleski is a riskier, lower-ceiling contact play.

LAD top bats

Shohei Ohtani 14.7 proj · $6,700 · 2.2x
Freddie Freeman 11.9 proj · $5,700 · 2.1x
Kyle Tucker 10.2 proj · $4,700 · 2.2x
Max Muncy 10.0 proj · $5,400 · 1.9x
Andy Pages 9.8 proj · $5,200 · 1.9x

PHI top bats

Kyle Schwarber 14.2 proj · $6,000 · 2.4x
Bryce Harper 11.8 proj · $5,500 · 2.1x
Trea Turner 10.7 proj · $5,000 · 2.1x
Alec Bohm 9.6 proj · $3,100 · 3.1x
J.T. Realmuto 8.9 proj · $3,400 · 2.6x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Kyle Schwarber - HR lean - top projected homer rate at 0.53 and wind out to center.
Trea Turner - hits lean - team-best 1.60 projected hits against a contact pitcher.
Shohei Ohtani - hits lean - 1.68 projected hits leads all bats despite tough matchup.
Zack Wheeler - strikeouts over lean - 10.53 K/9 versus a whiff-prone Dodgers lineup.

On watch