Miami Marlins

58-55

Atlanta Braves

67-45

7:15 PM ET Truist Park BravesVision Divisional

Back the Braves at home behind the better arm and deeper power lineup against a struggling Gusto.

Atlanta pairs the superior starter with a top-six offense while Miami sends a winless right with a 5.31 ERA.

SideBET HOME ML at ATL -142.

TotalPASS at 9.0 with implied totals matching the market.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Holmes owns a 3.88 ERA against Gusto's 5.31 mark.
Atlanta ranks 6th in runs at 4.90 per game.
Braves hold a 5-2 season series edge.

Best Bet Atlanta moneyline at -142 is the highest-conviction play given the pitching and offensive edges.

Total9.0

MIA Win43%

ATL Win59%

Implied MIA4.3

Implied ATL4.7

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

ATL 1.5

MIA ML

+132 43%

ATL ML

-142 59%

MIA4.3

ATL4.7

The de-vigged implied totals sit at ATL 4.7 and MIA 4.3, a tight one-run gap that matches the -142 price fairly. There is no glaring value on the side, and the 9.0 total lines up close to the combined implied 9.0. This is an efficiently priced number with little edge to hammer.

Pitching Matchup

MIA

Ryan Gusto

0-2 · 39.0 IP

ERA

5.31

WHIP

1.44

K/9

7.9

BB/9

3.0

ATL

Grant Holmes

6-4 · 102.0 IP

ERA

3.88

WHIP

1.36

K/9

7.7

BB/9

4.0

Holmes is the clear edge with more innings, a lower WHIP at 1.36, and steadier command despite a modest 3.97 BB/9. Gusto's 1.44 WHIP and 9.92 H/9 signal traffic, and he remains winless at 0-2 across 13 outings. Both sit near 7.7 to 7.9 K/9, so the separation is run prevention, not swing-and-miss.

Offense Comparison

MIArank of 30ATL

4.4 16 Runs / G 6 4.9

0.250 8 AVG 9 0.248

1.04 22 HR / G 4 1.34

8.12 21 K / G 24 8.01

Atlanta brings the power profile with 1.34 HR/game and a stacked righty core in Acuna, Olson, and Harris that can punish a hittable Gusto. Miami is more contact-leaning with a .250 team average but just 1.04 HR/game, leaning on table-setters Lopez and Edwards ahead of Stowers. The Braves offer the more dangerous top-to-bottom stack tonight.

Weather & Park

3 mph R to L cross · neutral

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

77°

Humidity

82%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny and warm at 77F with a neutral 3 mph cross breeze at outdoor Truist Park, so no meaningful boost or drag on run scoring.

DFS Angles

Stack the Braves against Gusto, whose 1.44 WHIP and 9.92 H/9 invite the 4th-ranked HR offense to do damage in warm outdoor conditions.

Target Holmes as the more reliable arm at a strong value; fade Gusto given his 5.31 ERA and winless record.

MIA top bats

Kyle Stowers 13.4 proj · $3,800 · 3.5x
Heriberto Hernandez 11.7 proj · $3,700 · 3.2x
Otto Lopez 11.6 proj · $4,300 · 2.7x
Xavier Edwards 11.2 proj · $4,000 · 2.8x
Griffin Conine 10.9 proj · $3,200 · 3.4x

ATL top bats

Matt Olson 14.5 proj · $4,800 · 3.0x
Ronald Acuna Jr. 14.3 proj · $5,500 · 2.6x
Drake Baldwin 14.2 proj · $4,900 · 2.9x
Michael Harris II 13.1 proj · $4,300 · 3.1x
Ozzie Albies 11.8 proj · $4,100 · 2.9x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Matt Olson - over hits/total bases lean - top ATL projection at 14.5 fpts with 1.77 projected hits.
Ronald Acuna Jr. - HR/total bases lean - 0.37 projected homers against a homer-prone Gusto.
Drake Baldwin - RBI lean - 1.12 projected RBI leading off the Braves order.
Otto Lopez - hits lean - 1.87 projected hits atop the Miami lineup.

On watch