Miami Marlins

56-55

New York Mets

47-64

4:10 PM ET Citi Field SNY DivisionalDay GameWeekend

Back the Mets at home behind Zac Thornton, the clear arm advantage at Citi Field.

Thornton has been sharp while Tyler Phillips leaks free passes against a divisional foe he splits 4-4.

SideBET HOME ML at -126

TotalPASS, market efficient at 9.0

Lean6/10

Confidence

Thornton owns a 2.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP this year.
Phillips walks 4.07 per nine with 1.36 WHIP.
Mets sit -126 with a 4.6 implied total.

Best Bet Mets moneyline at -126 behind Thornton's stronger command.

Total9.0

MIA Win46%

NYM Win56%

Implied MIA4.4

Implied NYM4.6

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

NYM 1.5

MIA ML

+118 46%

NYM ML

-126 56%

MIA4.4

NYM4.6

The de-vigged team totals of MIA 4.4 and NYM 4.6 add up to exactly the posted 9.0, so the number is efficiently priced with no obvious total edge. New York at -126 lines up with its slight implied edge, making the moneyline the fairer entry than laying the 1.5. There is no soft side worth attacking hard here.

Pitching Matchup

MIA

Tyler Phillips

2-5 · 84.1 IP

ERA

3.52

WHIP

1.36

K/9

6.7

BB/9

4.1

NYM

Zac Thornton

2-1 · 29.2 IP

ERA

2.43

WHIP

0.91

K/9

6.8

BB/9

2.2

Thornton carries the crisper profile with a 0.91 WHIP and 2.16 BB/9, though it rests on just 29.2 innings across five games, so the sample is thin. Phillips misses fewer bats and his 4.07 BB/9 invites traffic despite a respectable 3.52 ERA. The edge tilts to Thornton on command and run prevention.

Offense Comparison

MIArank of 30NYM

4.4 16 Runs / G 27 4.1

0.250 8 AVG 26 0.233

1.04 22 HR / G 14 1.17

8.15 20 K / G 13 8.47

Miami brings the better contact bat at 0.250 and rank 8 in average, but they hit for little power at rank 22 in HR/game, so their upside against Thornton leans single-driven. New York ranks 27th in runs and 26th in average, a bottom-tier group whose main path is the long ball at rank 14. Neither lineup screams elite stack, though Phillips's walk rate gives the Mets extra baserunner chances.

Weather & Park

5 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Smoky haze

Temp

76°

Humidity

79%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Outdoor day game at 76F with a 5 mph wind blowing out to center, flagged as a positive influence on run scoring. Smoky haze is present but no park-factor number is provided.

DFS Angles

Lean a light Mets stack around Lindor and Robert Jr. given Phillips's walk issues and the wind blowing out to center. Miami is a secondary contact-based option if you want cheaper exposure.

Target Zac Thornton as the top DFS arm on his 2.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP against a bottom-tier offense. Phillips is a risky play given his 4.07 BB/9.

MIA top bats

Heriberto Hernandez 11.5 proj · $3,500 · 3.3x
Otto Lopez 10.8 proj · $4,500 · 2.4x
Liam Hicks 9.6 proj · $4,200 · 2.3x
Kyle Stowers 9.4 proj · $3,800 · 2.5x
Javier Sanoja 9.3 proj · $3,000 · 3.1x

NYM top bats

Francisco Lindor 14.1 proj · $4,300 · 3.3x
Carson Benge 11.6 proj · $3,700 · 3.1x
Bo Bichette 11.1 proj · $4,200 · 2.6x
Luis Robert Jr. 10.7 proj · $3,300 · 3.2x
A.J. Ewing 10.2 proj · $4,100 · 2.5x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Francisco Lindor - over hits lean - top projected bat at 14.1 fpts, 1.65 projected hits.
Otto Lopez - over hits lean - 1.73 projected hits leading Miami's contact attack.
Luis Robert Jr. - HR sprinkle - 0.31 projected homers with wind out to center.
Carson Benge - over hits lean - 1.68 projected hits at value.

On watch