Minnesota Twins

56-56

Seattle Mariners

54-58

4:10 PM ET T-Mobile Park Twins.TV Presented by Progressive Day GameWeekend

Take Minnesota's arm and lineup edge with the plus-money underdog at +124.

Bradley's sharper ratios and a top-nine offense face the majors' worst-hitting club priced as a home favorite.

SideBET AWAY ML at MIN +124.

TotalPASS, the 7.5 sits exactly on implied runs.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Bradley's 3.65 ERA and 1.21 WHIP top Kirby's 3.98 and 1.30.
Seattle offense ranks 28th in runs, dead-last 30th in AVG.
Minnesota bats rank 9th scoring, 4.70 runs per game.

Best Bet Minnesota moneyline at +124 is the highest-conviction play.

Total7.5

MIN Win45%

SEA Win57%

Implied MIN3.6

Implied SEA3.9

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

SEA 1.5

MIN ML

+124 45%

SEA ML

-134 57%

MIN3.6

SEA3.9

The de-vigged team totals sit at MIN 3.6 and SEA 3.9, giving Seattle the home edge despite the worse offense and pitcher on my read. That gap looks generous to a bottom-three scoring club, making the Twins at +124 the value side. The 7.5 total lands right on the combined implied runs, offering no clear edge.

Pitching Matchup

MIN

Taj Bradley

9-4 · 120.2 IP

ERA

3.65

WHIP

1.21

K/9

10.4

BB/9

3.7

SEA

George Kirby

8-9 · 120.0 IP

ERA

3.98

WHIP

1.30

K/9

8.0

BB/9

1.9

Bradley brings the swing-and-miss with a 10.41 K/9, though his 3.67 BB/9 hints at traffic. Kirby is the polar opposite profile, elite command at 1.88 BB/9 but hittable with a 9.82 H/9 and matching 8.03 K/9. The edge tilts to Bradley on ERA and WHIP, though Kirby's control keeps this close.

Offense Comparison

MINrank of 30SEA

4.7 9 Runs / G 28 4.0

0.244 16 AVG 30 0.229

1.18 13 HR / G 15 1.17

8.13 21 K / G 11 8.62

Minnesota's lineup is the deeper unit and should test Kirby's contact-prone approach, with Larnach setting the table and power spread through Clemens, Bell, and Lewis. Seattle counters with Arozarena, Rodriguez, and Cal Raleigh, but the group's leaguewide contact issues make it a boom-or-bust stack against Bradley's whiffs. Twins hold the better matchup on paper.

Weather & Park

4 mph in from RF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Cloudy

Temp

57°

Humidity

87%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

T-Mobile Park has a retractable roof, so treat weather as a non-factor with no wind or temperature angle to price in.

DFS Angles

Lean a Minnesota stack against Kirby's 9.82 H/9, with Larnach, Clemens, and Josh Bell offering cheap contact upside in a roofed, neutral setting.

Target Taj Bradley for his 10.41 K/9 ceiling against a strikeout-prone Seattle lineup; Kirby is a riskier play given his elevated hit rate.

MIN top bats

Kody Clemens 10.2 proj · $5,200 · 2.0x
Josh Bell 9.7 proj · $3,600 · 2.7x
Ryan Jeffers 9.7 proj · $6,100 · 1.6x
Royce Lewis 9.4 proj · $3,900 · 2.4x
Trevor Larnach 9.0 proj · $3,800 · 2.4x

SEA top bats

Randy Arozarena 10.3 proj · $4,800 · 2.1x
Cal Raleigh 10.0 proj · $4,200 · 2.4x
Julio Rodriguez 10.0 proj · $4,500 · 2.2x
Dominic Canzone 9.4 proj · $3,700 · 2.5x
Josh Naylor 9.2 proj · $3,400 · 2.7x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Taj Bradley - over strikeouts lean - 10.41 K/9 versus a whiff-heavy Seattle offense.
Josh Bell - hits lean - 2.69x value at $3600 projecting 1.22 hits.
Randy Arozarena - hits lean - top Seattle projection at 1.35 hits.
Cal Raleigh - home run lean - team-best 0.30 HR projection against Bradley.

On watch