New York Mets

48-66

Cleveland Guardians

57-57

6:40 PM ET Progressive Field Guardians.TV Presented by Progressive

Christian Scott's swing-and-miss edge over two bottom-three offenses points to value on the under 8.0.

Both lineups sit near the league floor while the away arm carries the night's best strikeout stuff.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 8.0

Lean6/10

Confidence

Scott owns a 2.99 ERA and 11.07 K/9.
Mets rank 27th and Guardians 29th in runs/game.
De-vigged team totals both sit at just 4.0.

Best Bet Under 8.0 is the play given both lineups rank near the league floor in scoring.

Total8.0

NYM Win51%

CLE Win51%

Implied NYM4.0

Implied CLE4.0

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

CLE 1.5

NYM ML

-104 51%

CLE ML

-104 51%

NYM4.0

CLE4.0

The line is a true pick'em at NYM -104 / CLE -104 with both team totals pegged at exactly 4.0, so there is no sided value to chase. The total of 8.0 looks generous for two offenses ranked 27th and 29th, making the under the softer number. My read beats the posted 8.0 more than it beats either moneyline.

Pitching Matchup

NYM

Christian Scott

3-3 · 69.1 IP

ERA

2.99

WHIP

1.24

K/9

11.1

BB/9

3.9

CLE

Tanner Bibee

4-11 · 132.1 IP

ERA

3.81

WHIP

1.15

K/9

6.8

BB/9

2.6

Scott brings the louder profile with an 11.07 K/9 and 2.99 ERA, though his 3.91 BB/9 hints at command wobble. Bibee counters with sharper control at 2.59 BB/9 and a tidy 1.15 WHIP, but only a 6.81 K/9. Edge to Scott on raw stuff and missing bats.

Offense Comparison

NYMrank of 30CLE

4.1 27 Runs / G 29 3.9

0.233 26 AVG 27 0.231

1.18 14 HR / G 28 0.96

8.44 14 K / G 15 8.28

Neither lineup scares anyone, with the Mets hitting .233 and the Guardians .231, both near the bottom in average. Cleveland's 0.96 HR/game (28th) offers little power to punish Scott, while New York's 1.18 HR/game gives Robert and Lindor modest upside against Bibee. Stack appeal is thin on both sides.

Weather & Park

3 mph out to RF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

85°

Humidity

67%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny and hot at 85F with a light 3 mph wind out to right, a mild positive for run scoring in this outdoor park. That breeze is a minor factor, not a green light for a shootout.

DFS Angles

Light stacking only, but the Mets are the marginally better bet against Bibee's contact profile, with Lindor and Robert offering the modest power edge. Cleveland's 28th-ranked power output limits any home stack.

Target Christian Scott for strikeout upside behind that 11.07 K/9 in a favorable matchup. Bibee is a cheaper cash-game option given his control, but his low K/9 caps ceiling.

NYM top bats

Francisco Lindor 11.9 proj · $4,200 · 2.8x
Bo Bichette 10.3 proj · $4,000 · 2.6x
A.J. Ewing 10.1 proj · $3,900 · 2.6x
Carson Benge 9.9 proj · $3,700 · 2.7x
Luis Robert Jr. 9.7 proj · $3,500 · 2.8x

CLE top bats

Jose Ramirez 11.2 proj · $5,100 · 2.2x
Chase DeLauter 10.1 proj · $4,300 · 2.4x
Travis Bazzana 9.7 proj · $4,500 · 2.1x
Steven Kwan 9.2 proj · $3,400 · 2.7x
Nathaniel Lowe 8.4 proj · $3,300 · 2.6x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Luis Robert Jr. - HR lean - team-best 0.32 projected homers with the wind out to right.
Steven Kwan - hits over lean - top projected 1.54 hits at just $3400.
Francisco Lindor - hits lean - 1.42 projected hits atop a value $4200 tag.
Jose Ramirez - RBI lean - highest Guardians floor at 0.65 projected RBI.

On watch

Christian Scott - his 3.91 BB/9 could undercut the strikeout upside if command slips.
Tanner Bibee - low 6.81 K/9 leans on soft contact against a weak lineup.
Chase DeLauter - team-high 0.78 projected RBI makes him Cleveland's run driver.
Nathaniel Lowe - 0.23 projected HR gives cheap power upside at $3300.

View all NYM & CLE props →