New York Mets

49-66

Cleveland Guardians

57-58

1:10 PM ET Progressive Field Guardians.TV Presented by Progressive Day Game

Two sub-3.30 ERA arms against two bottom-five offenses point straight to the under 7.5.

Both starters miss bats or limit hits while neither lineup can consistently score.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 7.5

Strong7/10

Confidence

Mets rank 27th in runs at 4.08 per game.
Guardians rank 29th in runs at 3.94 per game.
De-vigged team totals sit low at 3.7 and 3.8.

Best Bet Under 7.5 is the highest-conviction play given both starters' sub-3.30 ERAs versus bottom-five scoring units.

Total7.5

NYM Win48%

CLE Win54%

Implied NYM3.7

Implied CLE3.8

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

CLE 1.5

NYM ML

+110 48%

CLE ML

-118 54%

NYM3.7

CLE3.8

The de-vigged team totals of 3.7 and 3.8 add up right around the posted 7.5, so the number is close to efficient. The ML is nearly a coinflip at NYM 110 / CLE -118, offering no clear edge on either side. The total is where the softness leans, sitting slightly higher than the pitching quality warrants.

Pitching Matchup

NYM

Nolan McLean

7-7 · 125.2 IP

ERA

3.29

WHIP

1.12

K/9

10.6

BB/9

3.2

CLE

Foster Griffin

12-3 · 129.1 IP

ERA

3.06

WHIP

1.07

K/9

8.1

BB/9

2.1

McLean brings the swing-and-miss profile with a 10.64 K/9, though his 3.23 BB/9 leaves some traffic. Griffin is the cleaner operator, walking just 2.09 per nine with a 1.07 WHIP behind a 3.06 ERA. Slight command edge to Griffin, but both arms are firmly capable of suppressing runs.

Offense Comparison

NYMrank of 30CLE

4.1 27 Runs / G 29 3.9

0.232 26 AVG 27 0.231

1.19 12 HR / G 29 0.95

8.50 13 K / G 15 8.32

Both lineups are contact-challenged and low-average, with the Mets hitting .232 (26th) and the Guardians .231 (27th). New York has modest pop at 1.19 HR/game (12th) led by Alvarez and Lindor, while Cleveland's 0.95 HR/game (29th) makes them a weak stack against a strike-thrower. Neither offense profiles as a strong play against opposing quality.

Weather & Park

5 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

78°

Humidity

67%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny 78F with a 5 mph breeze out to center is a mild positive for the ball carrying, but not enough to override two strong starters and two feeble offenses.

DFS Angles

If forced to stack, lean lightly Mets given their 12th-ranked 1.19 HR/game and the CF breeze, but neither offense is a premium tournament target.

Griffin is the value target at low ownership with a 3.06 ERA and 1.07 WHIP against a weak lineup, while McLean's 10.64 K/9 offers strikeout upside as a pivot.

NYM top bats

Francisco Lindor 10.9 proj · $4,300 · 2.5x
Francisco Alvarez 9.9 proj · $3,300 · 3.0x
Bo Bichette 9.9 proj · $4,000 · 2.5x
A.J. Ewing 9.1 proj · $3,900 · 2.3x
Luis Robert Jr. 8.7 proj · $3,500 · 2.5x

CLE top bats

Chase DeLauter 10.0 proj · $4,300 · 2.3x
Steven Kwan 8.9 proj · $3,400 · 2.6x
Travis Bazzana 8.9 proj · $4,600 · 1.9x
Nathaniel Lowe 8.7 proj · $3,300 · 2.6x
Jo Adell 8.5 proj · $3,600 · 2.4x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Francisco Alvarez - hits/power lean - top projected HR bat at 0.29 for the Mets.
Steven Kwan - hits over lean - team-best 1.56 projected hits with contact profile.
Chase DeLauter - hits lean - Guardians' top projection at 1.46 hits.
Bo Bichette - RBI lean - 0.75 projected RBI batting third for New York.

On watch

Foster Griffin - 12-3 record and 2.09 BB/9 command make him the game's steadiest arm.
Nolan McLean - 10.64 K/9 gives strikeout ceiling if command holds.
Francisco Lindor - top Mets projection at 10.8 fpts hitting second.
Nathaniel Lowe - 0.23 projected HR provides Guardians' main power source.

View all NYM & CLE props →