New York Yankees

61-48

Chicago Cubs

62-47

2:20 PM ET Wrigley Field YES Day Game

Back the Cubs at home behind the sharper arm and the deeper offense against Will Warren.

Imanaga's command edge plus Chicago's top-tier lineup gives the home side the cleaner path in a wind-aided park.

SideBET HOME ML at CHC -148.

TotalPASS

Lean6/10

Confidence

Cubs score 5.17 runs/game, rank 2/30, versus Yankees' 10th.
Imanaga's 2.16 BB/9 and 1.10 WHIP dwarf Warren's 1.41.
De-vigged implied totals favor Chicago 4.7 to 4.3.

Best Bet Cubs moneyline at -148, leaning on Imanaga's command and Chicago's second-ranked offense.

Total9.0

NYY Win44%

CHC Win60%

Implied NYY4.3

Implied CHC4.7

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

CHC 1.5

NYY ML

+126 44%

CHC ML

-148 60%

NYY4.3

CHC4.7

The de-vigged implied totals (NYY 4.3, CHC 4.7) line up with the pitching gap, so CHC -148 looks fairly priced rather than soft. The Yankees at +126 offer value only if you trust the homer variance, and the total at 9.0 sits right on the combined implied number. No standout price edge on either the side or the number here.

Pitching Matchup

NYY

Will Warren

7-5 · 102.0 IP

ERA

4.41

WHIP

1.41

K/9

9.0

BB/9

3.2

CHC

Shota Imanaga

7-8 · 121.0 IP

ERA

3.79

WHIP

1.10

K/9

8.4

BB/9

2.2

Imanaga is the clear edge with a 3.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and elite 2.16 BB/9 that limits free baserunners. Warren misses bats at 9.00 K/9 but his 3.18 BB/9 and 1.41 WHIP mean traffic, and his 9.53 H/9 invites hard contact. Command tilts this matchup firmly toward the home starter.

Offense Comparison

NYYrank of 30CHC

4.6 10 Runs / G 2 5.2

0.233 26 AVG 9 0.249

1.40 2 HR / G 10 1.23

9.14 5 K / G 11 8.59

New York is a boom-or-bust group, ranking 2nd in HR/game but 26th in AVG and 5th in strikeouts, so they live and die on the long ball against Imanaga. Chicago pairs a better contact profile (9th in AVG) with balanced power, making them the more reliable stack facing Warren's walk-prone approach. The Cubs' lefty-heavy top order can attack Warren's traffic.

Weather & Park

6 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

72°

Humidity

81%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny and 72F with a 6 mph wind blowing out to left field is a mild positive for run scoring at Wrigley. Conditions lean toward carry rather than suppression.

DFS Angles

Stack the Cubs against Warren's 3.18 BB/9 and 9.53 H/9, with the wind out to left aiding the top of the order. Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki, and Busch anchor the best stack on the slate.

Target Imanaga as the top SP play given his 3.79 ERA and elite walk rate against a strikeout-heavy Yankees lineup. Fade Warren, whose 1.41 WHIP makes him risky versus a top-two offense.

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 12.3 proj · $9,000 · 1.4x
Paul Goldschmidt 11.7 proj · $6,400 · 1.8x
Trent Grisham 9.8 proj · $7,200 · 1.4x
Jasson Dominguez 9.3 proj · $5,800 · 1.6x
Anthony Volpe 8.9 proj · $5,000 · 1.8x

CHC top bats

Pete Crow-Armstrong 14.0 proj · $9,600 · 1.5x
Michael Busch 12.7 proj · $7,800 · 1.6x
Seiya Suzuki 12.3 proj · $8,800 · 1.4x
Ian Happ 12.0 proj · $7,400 · 1.6x
Alex Bregman 11.1 proj · $8,000 · 1.4x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Michael Busch - over hits/RBI lean - projects 1.61 H and 1.08 RBI batting third.
Pete Crow-Armstrong - HR/total bases lean - 0.33 projected HR with wind out to left.
Paul Goldschmidt - hits lean - 1.39 projected H and strong 1.83x value.
Seiya Suzuki - total bases lean - 0.28 projected HR at 12.3 fpts.

On watch