New York Yankees

62-49

Chicago Cubs

63-48

2:20 PM ET Wrigley Field YES Day GameWeekend

Back the Yankees behind Gerrit Cole at -122, with the wind knocking down the total.

Cole's command and strikeout edge over Colin Rea headlines a run-suppressing day at Wrigley.

SideBET AWAY ML at -122.

TotalBET UNDER 6.5.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Cole's 3.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP dwarf Rea's 4.67 and 1.40.
Cole's 1.85 BB/9 versus Rea's 3.24 BB/9 is a huge command gap.
14 mph wind in from CF flags a negative scoring impact.

Best Bet Yankees ML at -122 with Cole outclassing Rea in a run-suppressing wind.

Total6.5

NYY Win55%

CHC Win47%

Implied NYY3.4

Implied CHC3.1

Vegas / Market

Total

6.5

Run line

CHC 1.5

NYY ML

-122 55%

CHC ML

+112 47%

NYY3.4

CHC3.1

The de-vigged implied totals sit at NYY 3.4 and CHC 3.1, a tight split that undersells Cole's edge over Rea. With NYY at -122 the price looks fair to slightly soft given the pitching gap. The total of 6.5 lines up with the wind-suppressed environment, leaving little value chasing overs.

Pitching Matchup

NYY

Gerrit Cole

4-5 · 68.0 IP

ERA

3.57

WHIP

1.09

K/9

9.7

BB/9

1.9

CHC

Colin Rea

8-7 · 111.2 IP

ERA

4.67

WHIP

1.40

K/9

6.7

BB/9

3.2

Cole is the clear edge with a 9.66 K/9 and elite 1.85 BB/9, missing bats while limiting free passes. Rea profiles as a contact-prone innings-eater at 6.72 K/9 and 3.24 BB/9, giving up hits at a 9.39 H/9 clip. This is a decisive mismatch in stuff and command favoring the visitor.

Offense Comparison

NYYrank of 30CHC

4.6 11 Runs / G 3 5.1

0.232 27 AVG 10 0.248

1.41 2 HR / G 11 1.22

9.13 5 K / G 12 8.59

New York is a top-heavy power club, ranking 2nd in HR/game but just 27th in AVG, so their upside leans on the long ball against a hittable Rea. Chicago is more balanced, ranking 3rd in runs/game and 10th in AVG, and fits as a stack-friendly lineup that must chip away rather than slug against Cole. The Cubs' contact profile is better suited to grinding out at-bats than launching against Cole's whiff rate.

Weather & Park

15 mph in from CF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

71°

Humidity

84%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny and 71F at outdoor Wrigley, but a 14 mph wind blowing in from center is flagged as a negative for run scoring. That headwind clips fly-ball carry and argues against big power output.

DFS Angles

Lean a modest Yankees stack against Rea's 3.24 BB/9 and 9.39 H/9, though the in-blowing wind caps the ceiling on their power bats. Keep Cubs stacks limited given Cole's dominance and the negative-wind park read.

Target Cole as the premium play given his 9.66 K/9 in a suppressed environment. Fade or downgrade Rea, whose 4.67 ERA and low strikeout rate cap safe DFS upside.

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 12.3 proj · $6,000 · 2.0x
Trent Grisham 10.7 proj · $4,300 · 2.5x
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 10.1 proj · $4,700 · 2.1x
Jasson Dominguez 9.4 proj · $3,900 · 2.4x
Paul Goldschmidt 8.6 proj · $3,800 · 2.3x

CHC top bats

Pete Crow-Armstrong 9.8 proj · $6,900 · 1.4x
Seiya Suzuki 9.0 proj · $5,400 · 1.7x
Michael Busch 8.7 proj · $4,800 · 1.8x
Alex Bregman 8.4 proj · $4,700 · 1.8x
Ian Happ 8.2 proj · $4,600 · 1.8x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Gerrit Cole - over strikeouts lean - 9.66 K/9 against a Cubs lineup that whiffs.
Ben Rice - hit prop lean - projects a team-best 1.28 hits at 2.04x value.
Trent Grisham - hit prop lean - leadoff bat projecting 1.13 hits at 2.50x value.
Colin Rea - under strikeouts lean - modest 6.72 K/9 limits whiff volume.

On watch