Philadelphia Phillies

57-52

Baltimore Orioles

53-55

7:05 PM ET Oriole Park at Camden Yards NBCSP

Lean UNDER 9.0 with two strikeout-heavy, low-average offenses facing arms carrying sub-3.15 ERAs.

Both lineups whiff at elite rates and neither hits for average, capping the run environment.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 9.0

Lean6/10

Confidence

PHI strikes out 8.86/game (7th) and hits .236 (24th).

Best Bet Under 9.0 is the highest-conviction play given the strikeout rates on both sides.

Total9.0

PHI Win50%

BAL Win54%

Implied PHI4.4

Implied BAL4.6

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

BAL 1.5

PHI ML

+100 50%

BAL ML

-118 54%

PHI4.4

BAL4.6

The de-vigged team totals of 4.4 and 4.6 add cleanly to the posted 9.0, so the number is efficient with no obvious soft side. The moneyline is near a coin flip at PHI +100 and BAL -118, reflecting Young's edge in track record. Nothing here beats the read strongly enough to hammer a side.

Pitching Matchup

PHI

Brian Keller

0-0 · 3.0 IP

ERA

3.00

WHIP

0.67

K/9

9.0

BB/9

0.0

BAL

Brandon Young

8-2 · 97.2 IP

ERA

3.13

WHIP

1.29

K/9

7.4

BB/9

3.2

Young is the proven arm with 97.2 innings, a 3.13 ERA and 7.41 K/9, though his 3.15 BB/9 leaves some free traffic. Keller shows dazzling ratios, a 0.67 WHIP and 9.00 K/9, but across just 3.0 innings in one game that is close to meaningless for projection. Edge to Young on reliability alone.

Offense Comparison

PHIrank of 30BAL

4.3 19 Runs / G 11 4.6

0.236 24 AVG 23 0.237

1.27 8 HR / G 13 1.17

8.86 7 K / G 4 9.18

Both offenses are contact-poor and swing-and-miss heavy, limiting sustained rallies against quality strike-throwers. Philadelphia carries the modest power edge at 1.27 HR/game (8th) with a Schwarber-Harper-Turner top of the order, while Baltimore leans on Alonso and Henderson for its thump. Neither profiles as a slam-dunk stack given the low team averages.

Weather & Park

6 mph L to R cross · neutral

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

76°

Humidity

76%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny, 76F at outdoor Camden Yards with a 6 mph left-to-right crosswind graded neutral, so no meaningful push on run scoring either way.

DFS Angles

Lean a light Phillies stack around Schwarber, Harper and Turner for the small power edge, but keep exposure modest since both offenses hit under .240.

Target Young as a stable points-and-win floor with 8 prior wins; treat Keller as a boom-bust cheap dart given his 3.0-inning sample.

PHI top bats