San Diego Padres

49-51

Atlanta Braves

58-42

7:15 PM ET Truist Park Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health

Back Atlanta at home as Reynaldo Lopez outclasses a struggling Walker Buehler.

Lopez owns the run-prevention edge while Atlanta's top-6 offense feasts on a wobbly Padres arm.

SideBET HOME ML at -118

TotalBET UNDER 8.5

Lean6/10

Confidence

Lopez ERA 3.95 and WHIP 1.36 tops Buehler's 5.23 and 1.43.
Atlanta ranks 6th in runs, 4th in HR/game at 1.32.
San Diego offense sits 25th in runs, 28th in AVG.

Best Bet Atlanta ML at -118 backed by the Lopez-over-Buehler pitching gap.

Total8.5

SD Win50%

ATL Win54%

Implied SD4.2

Implied ATL4.3

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

ATL 1.5

SD ML

+100 50%

ATL ML

-118 54%

SD4.2

ATL4.3

De-vigged team totals are nearly level at SD 4.2 and ATL 4.3, yet ATL is only -118 despite the pitching and offense gaps. That price feels a touch soft given Lopez's edge, so the home ML offers modest value. The 8.5 total sits slightly high for a wind-suppressed park.

Pitching Matchup

Walker Buehler

6-5 · 94.2 IP

ERA

5.23

WHIP

1.43

K/9

8.0

BB/9

3.8

ATL

Reynaldo Lopez

4-3 · 66.0 IP

ERA

3.95

WHIP

1.36

K/9

8.2

BB/9

3.8

Lopez holds the clear advantage with a 3.95 ERA and 1.36 WHIP against Buehler's 5.23 and 1.43, and both punch out hitters at a similar clip near 8.1 K/9. Buehler's 9.08 H/9 signals plenty of contact allowed, while the pair share identical 3.82 BB/9 command marks. Edge firmly to Lopez on results.

Offense Comparison

SDrank of 30ATL

4.1 25 Runs / G 6 5.0

0.230 28 AVG 9 0.248

1.11 20 HR / G 4 1.32

8.27 17 K / G 23 8.05

Atlanta's lineup carries real thump with power bats like Olson, Riley, and Baldwin, giving it strong stack appeal against a hittable Buehler. San Diego leans on Tatis, Machado, and Merrill but the group has scuffled overall and faces a pitcher who limits hits. The Braves are the deeper, more dangerous card top to bottom.

Weather & Park

7 mph in from LF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Partly cloudy

Temp

77°

Humidity

82%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Wind is blowing 7 mph in from left field with a noted negative impact on scoring, which should knock down some fly balls at outdoor Truist Park. That leans mild suppression on power despite the warm 77F feel.

DFS Angles

Stack Atlanta bats against Buehler's 9.08 H/9, with the wind favoring line-drive contact over deep fly balls. Olson, Riley, and Baldwin anchor the core.

Target Lopez as the tournament SP given his 3.95 ERA and matchup versus a 25th-ranked offense. Fade Buehler despite the strikeouts, as his 5.23 ERA and this lineup carry blow-up risk.

SD top bats

Fernando Tatis Jr. 12.1 proj · $5,500 · 2.2x
Jackson Merrill 11.4 proj · $4,300 · 2.7x
Manny Machado 11.2 proj · $4,500 · 2.5x
Jake Cronenworth 10.8 proj · $2,800 · 3.9x
Ty France 10.0 proj · $3,200 · 3.1x

ATL top bats

Matt Olson 12.9 proj · $5,100 · 2.5x
Drake Baldwin 12.8 proj · $4,600 · 2.8x
Michael Harris II 11.7 proj · $4,500 · 2.6x
Austin Riley 11.7 proj · $3,800 · 3.1x
Ozzie Albies 11.6 proj · $4,000 · 2.9x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Matt Olson - hits/total bases over lean - top projected bat at 12.9 fpts, 0.30 HR.
Austin Riley - HR lean - 0.23 projected homers at strong 3.07x value.
Drake Baldwin - RBI over lean - projects 1.00 RBI, 0.33 HR.

On watch