Seattle Mariners

53-56

Los Angeles Dodgers

68-40

10:10 PM ET Dodger Stadium SportsNet LA

Back the under 8.5 with Ohtani carving up a Seattle offense that ranks 28th in runs.

Ohtani's 1.79 ERA against a bottom-three bat pool caps Seattle's side of the ledger.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 8.5

Lean6/10

Confidence

Ohtani owns a 0.95 WHIP and 10.04 K/9 at home.
Seattle sits 29th in AVG at .230 and 28th in runs.
De-vigged implied totals are just SEA 4.0, LAD 4.5.

Best Bet Under 8.5 is the play, banking on Ohtani limiting Seattle well below their 4.0 implied total.

Total8.5

SEA Win43%

LAD Win61%

Implied SEA4.0

Implied LAD4.5

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

LAD 1.5

SEA ML

+132 43%

LAD ML

-156 61%

SEA4.0

LAD4.5

The market pegs Los Angeles at -156 with a 4.5 implied total, which feels fair given the pitching mismatch. Seattle's 4.0 implied number looks generous against Ohtani, so the value leaks toward the under rather than the side. The total of 8.5 is the softest number on the board.

Pitching Matchup

SEA

Bryan Woo

7-7 · 115.1 IP

ERA

4.37

WHIP

1.14

K/9

8.9

BB/9

1.9

LAD

Shohei Ohtani

8-2 · 85.2 IP

ERA

1.79

WHIP

0.95

K/9

10.0

BB/9

2.8

Ohtani is the clear edge with elite swing-and-miss (10.04 K/9) and pristine command reflected in his 0.95 WHIP. Woo is no pushover, posting a strong 1.88 BB/9 and 1.14 WHIP, but his stuff plays a tier below tonight's opponent. Advantage firmly to the home arm.

Offense Comparison

SEArank of 30LAD

4.0 28 Runs / G 4 5.2

0.230 29 AVG 1 0.261

1.16 16 HR / G 7 1.28

8.56 12 K / G 25 7.92

The Dodgers lineup is the deeper, more dangerous group, leading the majors in average and striking out the fifth-fewest times, giving them a real shot to string hits off Woo. Seattle brings pop from Rodriguez and Raleigh but too many empty at-bats to sustain rallies against Ohtani. Stack appeal tilts heavily to Los Angeles.

Weather & Park

3 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Cloudy

Temp

66°

Humidity

94%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Cloudy and cool at 66F with a light 3 mph breeze out to left, a mildly positive nudge for fly balls but not a dome-buster. Dodger Stadium plays fair, so no extreme run inflation expected.

DFS Angles

Prefer a Dodgers mini-stack against Woo, with Freeman, Edman, and Tucker in the majors' top-ranked contact offense and a breeze aiding fly balls to left.

Ohtani is the premium DFS target given his 1.79 ERA and 10.04 K/9 versus a strikeout-prone opponent; treat Woo as a risky play facing the league's best average.

SEA top bats

Julio Rodriguez 12.2 proj · $4,200 · 2.9x
Randy Arozarena 11.6 proj · $4,600 · 2.5x
Cal Raleigh 11.0 proj · $3,900 · 2.8x
Dominic Canzone 10.1 proj · $3,500 · 2.9x
Josh Naylor 10.1 proj · $3,700 · 2.7x

LAD top bats

Freddie Freeman 11.5 proj · $5,500 · 2.1x
Andy Pages 9.9 proj · $4,900 · 2.0x
Tommy Edman 9.6 proj · $4,700 · 2.0x
Kyle Tucker 9.3 proj · $4,500 · 2.1x
Mookie Betts 8.9 proj · $4,800 · 1.9x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Shohei Ohtani - over strikeouts lean - 10.04 K/9 against a 12th-ranked whiff offense.
Freddie Freeman - hits lean - top projected Dodger bat at 1.32 projected hits.
Julio Rodriguez - under RBI lean - Seattle faces Ohtani with a thin supporting cast.
Josh Naylor - hits lean - team-high 1.42 projected hits among Mariners.

On watch

Cal Raleigh - power source with a 0.35 projected HR against Ohtani.
Tommy Edman - 1.41 projected hits and multi-position DFS flexibility.
Randy Arozarena - Seattle's priciest bat at $4600 needs to justify it.
Bryan Woo - his 1.88 BB/9 command must hold against baseball's best-hitting lineup.

View all SEA & LAD props →