St. Louis Cardinals

56-57

New York Yankees

63-50

7:05 PM ET Yankee Stadium YES

Back the Yankees at home, where their number-2 HR offense targets Hunter Dobbins over a thin 33.2-inning sample.

New York carries the pitching edge and the power to punish a small-sample arm at a 4.6 implied total.

SideBET HOME ML at NYY -164, backing the superior arm and power.

TotalPASS

Lean6/10

Confidence

Yankees rank 2/30 at 1.43 HR/game, elite pop.
Weathers posts 9.86 K/9 and 1.24 WHIP, cleaner than Dobbins.
NYY implied 4.6 runs versus STL's 3.9.

Best Bet Yankees moneyline at -164 is the highest-conviction play given the pitching and power edges.

Total8.5

STL Win40%

NYY Win62%

Implied STL3.9

Implied NYY4.6

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

NYY 1.5

STL ML

+150 40%

NYY ML

-164 62%

STL3.9

NYY4.6

The de-vigged team totals of STL 3.9 and NYY 4.6 line up cleanly with an 8.5 total, leaving little air on the number. NYY at -164 fairly prices the home edge, so there is no obvious value screaming off the board. This one reads efficient rather than soft.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Hunter Dobbins

2-1 · 33.2 IP

ERA

3.74

WHIP

1.34

K/9

8.7

BB/9

3.0

NYY

Ryan Weathers

4-7 · 115.0 IP

ERA

3.99

WHIP

1.24

K/9

9.9

BB/9

2.6

Weathers owns the profile edge with a 9.86 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, and 1.24 WHIP across a full 115-inning workload. Dobbins flashes strikeout ability at 8.67 K/9 but a 1.34 WHIP and 9.22 H/9 over just 33.2 innings leave real uncertainty. The larger, sharper body of work belongs to New York's starter.

Offense Comparison

STLrank of 30NYY

4.4 18 Runs / G 11 4.6

0.240 20 AVG 27 0.232

1.04 23 HR / G 2 1.43

7.72 27 K / G 5 9.12

The Yankees are a power-first, all-or-nothing lineup ranking 2/30 in homers and 27/30 in average, ideal to punish a hittable arm with lift from Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, and Spencer Jones. St. Louis is more contact-oriented but strikeout-prone at 27/30, and it must solve a starter posting nearly a strikeout per inning. New York carries the clearer stack appeal.

Weather & Park

2 mph R to L cross · neutral

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

73°

Humidity

82%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny and 73F with a light 2 mph cross breeze graded neutral, so the outdoor Yankee Stadium setting neither suppresses nor inflates run scoring tonight.

DFS Angles

Stack the Yankees against Dobbins, leaning on their 1.43 HR/game power to exploit a small-sample arm in neutral conditions.

Target Ryan Weathers as your SP given the 9.86 K/9 and 1.24 WHIP; Dobbins is a riskier, thinner-sample play best faded.

STL top bats

Ivan Herrera 11.1 proj · $4,100 · 2.7x
Jordan Walker 10.8 proj · $5,400 · 2.0x
Alec Burleson 9.5 proj · $4,600 · 2.1x
JJ Wetherholt 9.4 proj · $5,100 · 1.9x
Masyn Winn 8.8 proj · $3,200 · 2.8x

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 13.7 proj · $5,800 · 2.4x
Trent Grisham 11.9 proj · $4,200 · 2.8x
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 10.9 proj · $4,800 · 2.3x
Heliot Ramos 10.4 proj · $4,100 · 2.5x
Spencer Jones 9.4 proj · $3,200 · 3.0x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Ben Rice - HR lean - projects a team-high 0.45 HR versus a hittable arm.
Trent Grisham - total bases lean - 11.9 fpts and 0.31 projected HR atop the order.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - HR lean - 0.29 projected homer from a power bat.
Ivan Herrera - hits lean - 1.53 projected hits leads the Cardinals bats.

On watch