St. Louis Cardinals

56-58

New York Yankees

64-50

7:05 PM ET Yankee Stadium Amazon Prime Video

Wind blowing in from right at Yankee Stadium points to value on the under 8.5.

New York's homer-reliant offense loses its main weapon in a run-suppressing environment.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 8.5

Lean6/10

Confidence

Wind 4 mph in from RF carries a negative run impact.
Yankees rank 1/30 in HR but 28/30 in AVG.
Combined de-vigged team totals sit at 8.5, no cushion.

Best Bet Under 8.5, backing the wind-suppressed environment against two flawed lineups.

Total8.5

STL Win41%

NYY Win61%

Implied STL4.0

Implied NYY4.5

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

NYY 1.5

STL ML

+142 41%

NYY ML

-154 61%

STL4.0

NYY4.5

The de-vigged team totals of STL 4.0 and NYY 4.5 add up to exactly the posted 8.5, leaving no margin baked in for the run-suppressing wind. NYY at -154 implies a solid favorite, but Pallante's superior ratios make the Cardinals live dogs at +142. The total looks the softer number given the environmental drag.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Andre Pallante

11-6 · 118.2 IP

ERA

3.72

WHIP

1.22

K/9

6.6

BB/9

2.6

NYY

Will Warren

8-5 · 108.2 IP

ERA

4.14

WHIP

1.36

K/9

9.1

BB/9

3.0

Pallante brings the sharper ratios with a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, though his 6.55 K/9 means he pitches to contact. Warren misses far more bats at 9.07 K/9 but carries a heavier 4.14 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with shakier command. Edge to Pallante on run prevention, edge to Warren on strikeout upside.

Offense Comparison

STLrank of 30NYY

4.4 20 Runs / G 11 4.6

0.239 20 AVG 28 0.231

1.04 23 HR / G 1 1.44

7.74 27 K / G 5 9.09

New York is a boom-or-bust bunch, leading the league in home runs while ranking 28th in average and posting the 5th-most strikeouts, a profile that gets neutralized when the ball does not carry. St. Louis is a contact-first group that whiffs a lot itself (27th) but hits for little power (23rd in HR/game), leaving neither lineup a clean stack against these arms. Warren's high-K profile actually fits a Cardinals offense prone to strikeouts.

Weather & Park

4 mph in from RF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

85°

Humidity

69%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny and hot at 85F (feels 92F), but the 4 mph wind blowing in from right field is flagged as a negative for run scoring in this outdoor park.

DFS Angles

If chasing upside, a mini Yankees stack around Ben Rice and Trent Grisham still carries the league-best power, but temper expectations with the ball not carrying to right. Cardinals bats are better as cheap one-off value than a full stack against Warren's strikeouts.

Pallante is the cleaner cash-game arm given his 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP against a whiff-prone Cardinals-style opponent. Warren is a GPP-only strikeout dart at 9.07 K/9 but risky given his 4.14 ERA.

STL top bats

Alec Burleson 11.8 proj · $4,800 · 2.5x
Jordan Walker 10.6 proj · $5,400 · 2.0x
JJ Wetherholt 10.5 proj · $4,800 · 2.2x
Ivan Herrera 9.9 proj · $4,400 · 2.3x
Masyn Winn 8.1 proj · $3,200 · 2.5x

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 13.3 proj · $5,900 · 2.3x
Trent Grisham 12.0 proj · $4,300 · 2.8x
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 10.7 proj · $4,700 · 2.3x
Heliot Ramos 10.5 proj · $4,200 · 2.5x
Spencer Jones 9.1 proj · $3,300 · 2.8x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Ben Rice - HR upside lean tempered - team-high 0.44 projected HR but wind fights him.
Trent Grisham - hits under lean - only 1.22 projected hits atop the order.
Alec Burleson - RBI interest - 0.93 projected RBI leads the Cardinals.
Masyn Winn - hits over interest - 1.43 projected hits at a cheap $3200.

On watch