St. Louis Cardinals

54-57

Toronto Blue Jays

52-59

1:37 PM ET Rogers Centre Sportsnet Day GameWeekend

Back the Cardinals as +110 road dogs against a Max Scherzer sporting a 9.49 ERA.

St. Louis owns the better offense and gets the far shakier arm at a plus price.

SideBET AWAY ML at +110

TotalPASS on 9.0 with two bottom-tier offenses

Lean6/10

Confidence

Scherzer carries a 9.49 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over 24.2 innings.
STL offense ranks 19th at 4.31 runs, above TOR's 29th.
STL priced at +110 despite superior implied total math.

Best Bet St. Louis moneyline at +110 is the highest-conviction play given Scherzer's collapse.

Total9.0

STL Win48%

TOR Win55%

Implied STL4.4

Implied TOR4.6

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

TOR 1.5

STL ML

+110 48%

TOR ML

-120 55%

STL4.4

TOR4.6

The de-vigged team totals sit at STL 4.4 and TOR 4.6, a narrow home edge that feels generous given Scherzer's numbers versus Liberatore. Getting the stronger offense at +110 looks like the softer side of this line. The 9.0 total is priced fairly for two shaky arms, so the value is on the moneyline rather than the number.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Matthew Liberatore

5-8 · 102.2 IP

ERA

5.26

WHIP

1.56

K/9

8.8

BB/9

3.5

TOR

Max Scherzer

1-4 · 24.2 IP

ERA

9.49

WHIP

1.82

K/9

6.7

BB/9

5.2

Scherzer has been a mess in a small 24.2-inning sample, walking 5.21 per nine while allowing 11.53 hits per nine, so command is the glaring red flag. Liberatore is no ace with a 1.56 WHIP, but his 8.81 K/9 and steadier profile give St. Louis the clear rotation edge here. If either arm gets chased early, it is far likelier to be the Toronto side.

Offense Comparison

STLrank of 30TOR

4.3 19 Runs / G 29 4.0

0.239 20 AVG 17 0.244

1.02 24 HR / G 29 0.96

7.70 27 K / G 30 7.16

St. Louis brings a slightly deeper attack that whiffs a lot (27th at 7.70 K/game), which could play into Scherzer's remaining swing-and-miss, but his walk issues open the door for traffic. Toronto owns the league's most contact-oriented lineup (30th at 7.16 K/game) yet ranks 29th in both runs and homers, limiting its ceiling against Liberatore. Neither stack is elite, though the Jays' contact bats fit better for singles than the power upside DFS craves.

Weather & Park

Indoor / climate-controlled stadium: weather is a non-factor.

Rogers Centre is a retractable-roof park, so treat weather as a non-factor with no wind or temperature influence on scoring.

DFS Angles

Lean a St. Louis mini-stack against Scherzer's walks, though Toronto's Guerrero-Okamoto-Springer trio offers cheap salary relief if you pivot to the home side.

Fade Scherzer entirely given the 9.49 ERA, and treat Liberatore only as a cheap tournament dart with his 8.81 K/9 upside.

STL top bats