Toronto Blue Jays

54-61

Chicago Cubs

66-49

2:20 PM ET Wrigley Field Marquee Sports Network Day Game

Back the under 7.5 and Toronto at -112, as Dylan Cease is by far the best arm on the mound today.

Cease's 2.41 ERA and 13.15 K/9 tower over Peterson's profile, capping Chicago's elite bats.

SideBET AWAY ML at -112.

TotalBET UNDER 7.5.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Cease owns a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 119.1 innings.
Peterson sits at 4.36 ERA with a weak 6.00 K/9.
De-vigged totals are near-even at TOR 3.8, CHC 3.7.

Best Bet Under 7.5, backed by Cease's 2.41 ERA and 13.15 K/9 suppressing Chicago's bats.

Total7.5

TOR Win53%

CHC Win50%

Implied TOR3.8

Implied CHC3.7

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

CHC 1.5

TOR ML

-112 53%

CHC ML

+102 50%

TOR3.8

CHC3.7

The de-vigged team totals are nearly identical at 3.8 and 3.7, yet Cease's dominance argues Chicago should be marked lower than 3.7. Toronto at -112 gives fair value on the superior pitcher, and the 7.5 total looks vulnerable given the mound mismatch. The number is soft on the under side.

Pitching Matchup

TOR

Dylan Cease

7-5 · 119.1 IP

ERA

2.41

WHIP

1.08

K/9

13.2

BB/9

3.9

CHC

David Peterson

3-1 · 33.0 IP

ERA

4.36

WHIP

1.12

K/9

6.0

BB/9

2.7

Cease is the clear edge with elite swing-and-miss stuff, though his 3.85 BB/9 leaves some traffic. Peterson misses far fewer bats at 6.00 K/9 but has kept walks and hits reasonable in a small 33-inning sample. Advantage firmly to Toronto's ace on strikeout upside and run prevention.

Offense Comparison

TORrank of 30CHC

3.9 30 Runs / G 2 5.2

0.241 19 AVG 9 0.249

0.96 28 HR / G 10 1.24

7.23 29 K / G 11 8.58

Chicago's lineup is deep and dangerous, top-heavy with Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki and Busch offering real stack appeal against a walk-prone Cease. Toronto's contact-first bats, led by Guerrero and Springer, face a hittable Peterson but the offense lacks power and firepower to fully exploit him.

Weather & Park

6 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

70°

Humidity

91%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny 70F at Wrigley with a 6 mph wind blowing out to left, a modestly positive factor for run scoring that slightly helps the home power bats.

DFS Angles

Lean a modest Cubs stack of Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki and Busch, since Peterson's soft support and the wind out to left favor Chicago's offense over Toronto's league-worst bats.

Target Cease as a premium DFS play given his 13.15 K/9 upside against a high-strikeout Cubs lineup; fade Peterson given his 6.00 K/9 and pricier matchup.

TOR top bats

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 12.2 proj · $4,500 · 2.7x
George Springer 11.4 proj · $4,200 · 2.7x
Kazuma Okamoto 11.0 proj · $3,900 · 2.8x
Alejandro Kirk 10.2 proj · $3,400 · 3.0x
Ernie Clement 9.4 proj · $3,500 · 2.7x

CHC top bats

Pete Crow-Armstrong 11.5 proj · $6,000 · 1.9x
Michael Busch 10.7 proj · $4,100 · 2.6x
Ian Happ 10.4 proj · $4,000 · 2.6x
Seiya Suzuki 10.2 proj · $5,000 · 2.0x
Alex Bregman 9.2 proj · $4,200 · 2.2x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Dylan Cease - over strikeouts lean - 13.15 K/9 versus a lineup that whiffs 8.58 times per game.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - hits lean - 1.59 projected hits against a hittable Peterson.
Pete Crow-Armstrong - total bases lean - 0.26 projected HR with wind blowing out.
Kazuma Okamoto - RBI lean - 1.00 projected RBI at $3900 value.

On watch

Dylan Cease - his 3.85 BB/9 could invite trouble against a patient Cubs lineup.
Pete Crow-Armstrong - top-of-order bat with the highest Cubs projection at 11.5 fpts.
George Springer - power source who could flip the under with one swing.
David Peterson - small 33-inning sample makes his true form uncertain.

View all TOR & CHC props →