Cincinnati Reds

74-85

Toronto Blue Jays

77-82

7:07 PM ET Rogers Centre Sportsnet

Back Toronto on the moneyline at -142 behind the cleaner arm and the softer opposing lineup.

Soriano's command edge over Lodolo is the difference in a game between two bottom-tier offenses.

SideBET HOME ML at TOR -142.

TotalPASS

Lean5/10

Confidence

Soriano's 2.82 BB/9 dwarfs Lodolo's 3.84 walk rate.
Cincinnati's bats whiff at 9.52 K/game, second-most in baseball.
Lodolo's 1.46 WHIP and 9.33 H/9 invite Toronto contact.

Best Bet Toronto moneyline at -142 is the highest-conviction play behind Soriano's command edge.

Total7.5

CIN Win45%

TOR Win59%

Implied CIN3.6

Implied TOR3.9

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

TOR 1.5

CIN ML

+120 45%

TOR ML

-142 59%

CIN3.6

TOR3.9

The de-vigged team totals of CIN 3.6 and TOR 3.9 sum exactly to the posted 7.5, meaning the total is priced efficiently with no edge to chase. Toronto's -142 price and 3.9 implied runs sit right where the arm edge suggests they should, so the moneyline is fair rather than a gift. There is no soft number worth attacking on the total.

Pitching Matchup

CIN

Nick Lodolo

3-6 · 103.2 IP

ERA

5.04

WHIP

1.46

K/9

7.0

BB/9

3.8

TOR

Jose Soriano

3-2 · 51.1 IP

ERA

4.73

WHIP

1.29

K/9

7.1

BB/9

2.8

Soriano owns the clear edge here, pairing a similar strikeout profile with far tidier control and a 1.29 WHIP that keeps traffic down. Lodolo has a marginally higher K/9 but leaks baserunners at a 1.46 WHIP with nearly four walks per nine, a recipe for stress innings. Advantage Toronto's righty on both stuff efficiency and command.

Offense Comparison

CINRank of 30TOR

4.1 #26 Runs / G 4.0 #30

0.228 #30 AVG 0.248 #9

1.33 #4 HR / G 0.94 #30

9.52 #2 K / G 7.10 #29

Cincinnati brings power-or-nothing thump, ranking 4th in HR/game but dead last in AVG and near the top in strikeouts, a shape Soriano's contact suppression can exploit. Toronto is the opposite, a high-contact, low-power group that ranks 29th in strikeouts and can nickel-and-dime Lodolo's hittable arsenal. The Blue Jays' bat-to-ball profile stacks better against this specific matchup than Cincinnati's boom-or-bust approach.

Weather & Park

Indoor / climate-controlled stadium: weather is a non-factor.

Rogers Centre is a retractable-roof park, so treat weather as a non-factor with no wind or temperature swing on run scoring.

DFS Angles

Stack Toronto against Lodolo's 1.46 WHIP, leaning on the contact core of Guerrero, Springer and Kirk who profile to pepper his hittable stuff.

Target Soriano as the tournament-friendlier arm given his command edge and a Cincinnati lineup fanning 9.52 times per game; fade Lodolo's WHIP against a contact offense.

CIN top bats

Elly De La Cruz 8.7 proj · $5,900 · 1.5x
Sal Stewart 7.6 proj · $4,900 · 1.5x
JJ Bleday 7.0 proj · $3,700 · 1.9x
Tyler Stephenson 7.0 proj · $3,300 · 2.1x
Eugenio Suarez 6.9 proj · $3,900 · 1.8x

TOR top bats

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 9.0 proj · $4,400 · 2.1x
George Springer 8.9 proj · $4,600 · 1.9x
Kazuma Okamoto 8.4 proj · $4,100 · 2.1x
Alejandro Kirk 7.8 proj · $3,800 · 2.1x
Ernie Clement 7.1 proj · $3,500 · 2.0x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - hits over lean - projects a team-best 1.31 hits against Lodolo.
George Springer - hits over lean - 1.12 projected hits atop a contact lineup.
Elly De La Cruz - HR interest - 0.18 projected homers from Cincinnati's power source.
Jose Soriano - strikeouts lean - faces the second-highest team K rate in baseball.

On watch