Back Milwaukee at home behind the better bat-missing arm, though the -190 price caps the edge.
The Brewers pair a top-two offense with a strikeout pitcher against a soft, whiff-prone Cardinals lineup.
- Milwaukee offense ranks 2/30 in runs at 5.13 per game.
- St. Louis whiffs a lot, 7.99 K/game ranked 24/30.
- De-vigged implied totals favor Milwaukee 4.1 to 3.4.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged implied totals of 4.1 to 3.4 point Milwaukee's way, but the -190 price already bakes in most of that roughly 0.7-run projected margin. The market total of 7.5 sits right on the model's combined 7.5, offering no soft edge. The line looks efficient, not exploitable.
Pitching Matchup
Gasser owns the clear stuff edge with an 8.21 K/9 against a lineup that strikes out often, while McGreevy is more of a contact manager at just 6.20 K/9 with tidy 2.52 BB/9. Their run prevention is close on paper, ERA 4.01 versus 3.84, but Gasser misses more bats and that matters against a low-power Cardinals group. Advantage Milwaukee's arm here.
Offense Comparison
Milwaukee's contact-heavy lineup, hitting .258 as a team, is built to punish McGreevy's pitch-to-contact profile even without much thump. St. Louis brings a middling, low-average and strikeout-prone bat order that projects to struggle against Gasser's swing-and-miss. The Brewers are the far more appealing stack side tonight.
Weather & Park
American Family Field is a retractable-roof park, so treat weather as a non-factor with no wind or temperature influence on scoring.
DFS Angles
Stack Milwaukee against McGreevy's low-strikeout profile; Turang (9.8 fpts), Mitchell (9.4), and Bauers (9.1) headline a contact-strong, top-two run offense.
Target Gasser as the higher-upside strikeout arm facing a whiff-prone St. Louis lineup; McGreevy is a fade with only 6.20 K/9 against a top-two offense.
- Jordan Walker 8.3 proj · $4,900 · 1.7x
- Ivan Herrera 8.0 proj · $4,100 · 2.0x
- Leo Bernal 7.0 proj · $3,600 · 1.9x
- JJ Wetherholt 6.9 proj · $4,100 · 1.7x
- Alec Burleson 6.9 proj · $4,700 · 1.5x
- Brice Turang 9.8 proj · $5,600 · 1.8x
- Garrett Mitchell 9.4 proj · $4,000 · 2.4x
- Jake Bauers 9.1 proj · $4,500 · 2.0x
- Jackson Chourio 8.9 proj · $6,000 · 1.5x
- Christian Yelich 8.3 proj · $4,200 · 2.0x
Players to Watch
- Garrett Mitchell - hits/total bases over lean - 2.35x value flags a strong projected 1.14 H.
- Jake Bauers - home run/RBI lean - team-high 0.21 projected HR at $4500.
- Brice Turang - RBI lean - 0.68 projected RBI atop the value board.
- Christian Yelich - hits lean - 1.03 projected hits at 1.96x value.
- Jackson Chourio - priciest MIL bat at $6000, key to any stack ceiling.
- Robert Gasser - strikeout upside sets his DFS floor and the total.
- Michael McGreevy - contact profile makes him vulnerable to a MIL breakout.
- Ivan Herrera - top STL value at 1.95x if the Cardinals push back.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: STL 2 – MIL 8
Milwaukee dominates the season series 8-2 over St. Louis.
Today's MLB Slate
CHC @ BOS
BAL @ NYY
CHC @ BOS
PIT @ DET
TB @ PHI
NYM @ WAS
BAL @ NYY
CIN @ TOR
ATL @ MIA
CLE @ KC
COL @ CWS
STL @ MIL
TEX @ MIN
HOU @ ATH
ARI @ SD
LAA @ SEA
LAD @ SF
