New York Yankees

58-45

Philadelphia Phillies

56-48

6:05 PM ET Citizens Bank Park NBCSP Weekend

Take the under 9.0 with wind blowing in and Weathers missing bats against a strikeout-prone Phillies lineup.

A negative-wind park effect plus Weathers' swing-and-miss profile caps a top-heavy Philadelphia offense.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 9.0

Lean6/10

Confidence

Weathers posts a 10.14 K/9 versus Phillies' 8.90 K/game, rank 7.
Wind 6 mph in from left field flags a negative run impact.
Combined implied 9.0 sits above de-vigged 4.6 plus 4.4.

Best Bet Under 9.0 is the highest-conviction play given negative wind and Weathers' 10.14 K/9 against a rank-7 strikeout lineup.

Total9.0

NYY Win56%

PHI Win48%

Implied NYY4.6

Implied PHI4.4

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

PHI 1.5

NYY ML

-126 56%

PHI ML

+108 48%

NYY4.6

PHI4.4

The de-vigged implied totals are 4.6 for New York and 4.4 for Philadelphia, summing right at the posted 9.0. With wind suppressing offense, the true number feels lower than 9.0, making the under the value side. The ML at NYY -126 is close to efficient and offers no clear edge.

Pitching Matchup

NYY

Ryan Weathers

3-7 · 102.1 IP

ERA

4.40

WHIP

1.27

K/9

10.1

BB/9

2.6

PHI

Probable not confirmed

Weathers brings genuine swing-and-miss with a 10.14 K/9 and a manageable 2.56 BB/9, so his command backs the strikeout stuff, though a 4.40 ERA shows he is hittable. The Phillies starter is probable not confirmed, so no comparison is possible on the home arm. Edge on the mound leans to the only known quantity, Weathers, purely on profile.

Offense Comparison

NYYrank of 30PHI

— Runs / G 19 4.3

— AVG 24 0.235

— HR / G 7 1.30

— K / G 7 8.90

Philadelphia is power-first but contact-poor, hitting .235 (rank 24) while whiffing at a rank-7 clip, a shape that plays right into Weathers' strikeout arsenal. New York's offense data is not available, so lineup handedness and stack appeal cannot be assessed here. The Phillies' real threat is the long ball at 1.30 HR/game (rank 7), but that path narrows tonight.

Weather & Park

6 mph in from LF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Partly Cloudy

Temp

78°

Humidity

50%

moderate

Citizens Bank Park is outdoor at 78F with 6 mph wind blowing in from left field, a flagged negative for run scoring that should knock down fly balls. That directly undercuts Philadelphia's homer-reliant offense.

DFS Angles

If forced to stack Philadelphia, lean on Schwarber and Harper for their raw power (1.30 HR/game, rank 7), but the wind blowing in from left tempers ceiling tonight. New York bat quality is unclear without offense data, so treat their stack cautiously.

Weathers is a viable strikeout target given his 10.14 K/9 against a rank-7 whiff Phillies lineup. The Phillies starter is not confirmed, so avoid rostering that slot until named.

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 13.7 proj · $5,900 · 2.3x
Trent Grisham 12.2 proj · $4,200 · 2.9x
Cody Bellinger 12.0 proj · $4,800 · 2.5x
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 11.5 proj · $4,400 · 2.6x
Paul Goldschmidt 11.1 proj · $3,600 · 3.1x

PHI top bats

Kyle Schwarber 12.8 proj · $6,000 · 2.1x
Bryce Harper 11.3 proj · $5,400 · 2.1x
Trea Turner 11.1 proj · $5,100 · 2.2x
Alec Bohm 10.1 proj · $3,300 · 3.1x
J.T. Realmuto 9.3 proj · $3,200 · 2.9x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Ryan Weathers - over strikeouts lean - 10.14 K/9 meets a rank-7 strikeout Phillies offense.
Trea Turner - hits lean - projects a team-best 1.66 hits despite the low-power environment.
Kyle Schwarber - under HR lean - wind in from left field suppresses his fly-ball power.
Paul Goldschmidt - value hits lean - 1.36 projected hits at just DK $3600 (3.09x).

On watch