Thu Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Ready
Jacksonville Jaguars
5-2 · 5-2 last season
Implied25.0
At
JAX -9.5 Total 40.5 Live line · JAX -520 · BAL +400
Baltimore Ravens
4-4 · 4-4 last season
Implied15.5
Line movement open Nov 3
BAL spread
+9.5 +9.5
no move
Total
42.5 40.5
2.0
FanDuel
The angle
Play · 6/10
JAX -9.5 with Lamar out and Fagnano under center, implied 25-15.5 split.
SidePASS9.5 is steep with Henry facing the #1 run D and no reliable line move.
TotalBET UNDER 40.5Fagnano projects 11.3, BAL implied 15.5, total already dropped 2.0.
Best bet
Under 40.5: a backup Ravens QB and league-best Jaguars run defense cap the scoring.
Quick hits
- JAX -9.5, total 40.5, implied JAX 25.0 / BAL 15.5.
- Low scoring: Fagnano projects 11.3, Ravens offense dropped to backup QB.
- JAX WRs vs Baltimore #26 pass D is the soft spot, Washington SMASH.
- Jaguars lead and lean balanced; Ravens trail, forced to pass with Fagnano.
- Tuten questionable at RB shifts the Jacksonville ground script.
Key matchups
- Parker Washington vs BAL #26 WR: 35.9 fpa, SMASH, elite spot.
- Zay Flowers vs JAX #29 WR: 36.9 fpa, SMASH, softest Ravens edge.
- Derrick Henry vs JAX #1 RB: 17.5 fpa, TOUGH, league-best run wall.
- Trevor Lawrence vs BAL #21 QB: 19.0 fpa, FAVORABLE, exploitable secondary.
- Bhayshul Tuten vs BAL #8 RB: 20.7 fpa, NEUTRAL, and questionable tag.
- Mark Andrews vs JAX #9 TE: 12.6 fpa, NEUTRAL, limited ceiling.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX |
Trevor Lawrence | QB | 19.8 | $6,400 | BAL #21 of 32 | 19.0 | Favorable |
| JAX |
Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 14.1 | $6,400 | BAL #8 of 32 | 20.7 | Neutral |
| JAX |
Parker Washington | WR | 13.3 | $6,300 | BAL #26 of 32 | 35.9 | Smash |
| JAX |
Brenton Strange | TE | 9.2 | $4,300 | BAL #13 of 32 | 13.6 | Neutral |
| BAL |
Zay Flowers | WR | 13.8 | $7,400 | JAX #29 of 32 | 36.9 | Smash |
| BAL |
Derrick Henry | RB | 11.8 | $6,700 | JAX #1 of 32 | 17.5 | Tough |
| BAL |
Joe Fagnano | QB | 11.3 | $4,300 | JAX #15 of 32 | 17.3 | Neutral |
| BAL |
Mark Andrews | TE | 7.1 | $3,400 | JAX #9 of 32 | 12.6 | Neutral |
JAX skill positions vs BAL defenseQB
#21/32
19.0 fpa
RB
#8/32
20.7 fpa
WR
#26/32
35.9 fpa
TE
#13/32
13.6 fpa
BAL skill positions vs JAX defenseQB
#15/32
17.3 fpa
RB
#1/32
17.5 fpa
WR
#29/32
36.9 fpa
TE
#9/32
12.6 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- Both teams run 50% pass rate; JAX 59 plays, BAL 60, slow pace.
- JAX favored by 9.5 leads and leans run; BAL trails and must throw with Fagnano.
- Points tilt JAX 25.0 implied; BAL 15.5 implied capped by backup QB.
Projected points (market implied)
JAX25.0
BAL15.5
Offense profile
JAXRank of 32BAL
28.0
#5
Pts / G
22.4
#19
242.6
#16
Pass yds / G
223.1
#22
122.9
#13
Rush yds / G
133.5
#6
59.1
#26
Plays / G
60.1
#23
50%
Pass rate
50%
2.4
Pass TD / G
1.2
0.9
Rush TD / G
1.2
1.9
Sacks taken / G
2.8
0.6
INT thrown / G
0.4
Defense profile
JAXRank of 32BAL
15.9
#2
Pts allowed / G
25.4
#22
264.3
#28
Pass yds allowed
242.1
#19
77.4
#1
Rush yds allowed
102.8
#13
2.1
Sacks / G
2.1
1.3
INT / G
0.5
1.1
Pass TD allowed
1.4
0.6
Rush TD allowed
1.2
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 8 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-11-05 20:00 local
No weather factor
Conditions
Patchy rain nearby
Temp
66°F
feels 65°
Wind
9 mph S
gusts 23 mph
Rain
31%
0.00 in
Humidity
83%
- Patchy rain nearby, 66F, wind 8 mph: no weather factor
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- F, wind 9 mph S, 31% rain, 0.00 in/hr: DraftEdge reads no weather factor.
- Gusts to 23 worth a glance but passing and kicking unaffected.
DFS
- Stack: Lawrence with Washington against the #26 pass defense.
- Value: Fagnano $4300 at 2.63x, cheapest QB with a passing floor.
- Fade: Henry $6700 into JAX #1 run D, 1.75x value.
- Contrarian: Zay Flowers $7400 as the lone Ravens pass-game anchor vs #29 WR.
JAX projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | 19.8 | 18.1 / 18.1 | $6,400 | 3.09x | $7,800 | #21 |
| RB | Bhayshul Tuten questionable | 14.1 | 13.2 / 13.2 | $6,400 | 2.20x | $7,100 | #8 |
| WR | Parker Washington | 13.3 | 12.5 / 12.5 | $6,300 | 2.11x | $7,200 | #26 |
| TE | Brenton Strange | 9.2 | 8.6 / 8.6 | $4,300 | 2.15x | $5,200 | #13 |
| WR | Jakobi Meyers questionable | 8.9 | 9.1 / 9.1 | $4,200 | 2.11x | $5,700 | #26 |
| RB | Chris Rodriguez Jr. questionable | 6.7 | 6.7 / 6.7 | $4,900 | 1.37x | $5,400 | #8 |
| WR | Brian Thomas Jr. | 4.7 | 4.6 / 4.6 | $3,700 | 1.26x | $5,400 | #26 |
BAL projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Zay Flowers | 13.8 | 12.8 / 12.8 | $7,400 | 1.86x | $7,300 | #29 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | 11.8 | 12.5 / 12.5 | $6,700 | 1.75x | $9,000 | #1 |
| QB | Joe Fagnano | 11.3 | 10.7 / 10.7 | $4,300 | 2.63x | $6,500 | #15 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | 7.1 | 6.8 / 6.8 | $3,400 | 2.09x | $5,000 | #9 |
| RB | Justice Hill | 6.2 | 6.1 / 6.1 | $4,200 | 1.48x | $4,800 | #1 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | 5.0 | 5.0 / 5.0 | $3,400 | 1.49x | $5,400 | #29 |
| WR | Ja'Kobi Lane | 4.7 | 4.8 / 4.8 | $3,500 | 1.35x | $4,600 | #29 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Parker Washington - receiving yards 64.5 - over - #26 WR matchup, SMASH tag.
- Trevor Lawrence - passing yards 235.5 - over - favorable #21 QB spot.
- Derrick Henry - rushing yards 68.5 - under - JAX #1 run defense, 17.5 fpa.
- Zay Flowers - receiving yards 46.5 - over - JAX #29 WR allows 36.9 fpa.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Over | Book | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence QB JAX | Pass TD | 1.5 | 2.3 | -125 | BetRivers | #11 |
| Trevor Lawrence QB JAX | Pass yds | 235.5 | 232.7 | -112 | DraftKings | #19 |
| Trevor Lawrence QB JAX | Rush yds | 11.5 | 11.0 | -111 | BetMGM | #13 |
| Zay Flowers WR BAL | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.2 | +120 | DraftKings | #29 |
| Zay Flowers WR BAL | Rec yds | 46.5 | 63.8 | -112 | DraftKings | #29 |
| Parker Washington WR JAX | Receptions | 4.5 | 3.6 | +105 | Bovada | #19 |
| Parker Washington WR JAX | Rec yds | 64.5 | 58.2 | -113 | DraftKings | #19 |
| Derrick Henry RB BAL | Rush yds | 68.5 | 51.7 | -113 | DraftKings | #1 |
| Derrick Henry RB BAL | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.0 | +113 | DraftKings | #29 |
| Derrick Henry RB BAL | Rec yds | 7.5 | 6.1 | -102 | FanDuel | #29 |
| Joe Fagnano QB BAL | Pass TD | 0.5 | – | -125 | BetMGM | #4 |
| Joe Fagnano QB BAL | Pass yds | 155.5 | 530.1 | -112 | DraftKings | #28 |
| Brenton Strange TE JAX | Receptions | 3.5 | 3.8 | -115 | BetMGM | #19 |
| Brenton Strange TE JAX | Rec yds | 35.5 | 45.8 | -114 | DraftKings | #19 |
Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).
All JAX and BAL props with AI gradesInjuries
JAX 8 listed- Quest. Ameer Abdullah RB Unknown Moderate
- Quest. Bhayshul Tuten RB Unknown Moderate
- Quest. Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB Hand Moderate
- Out Antonio Johnson FS Unknown Minimal
- Out DaVon Hamilton DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Jamal Hill LB Unknown Minimal
- Out Jared Bartlett ILB Unknown Minimal
- Out Parker Hughes LB Unknown Minimal
BAL 8 listed- Out Lamar Jackson QB Unknown Severe
- Out Skylar Thompson QB Unknown Severe
- Out Tyler Huntley QB Right Turf Toe Moderate
- Quest. Joe Fagnano QB Unknown Moderate
- Out Andrew Vorhees G Unknown Minimal
- Out Jaylinn Hawkins FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Vega Ioane G Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Broderick Washington DT Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- JAX 4-1 last five; BAL dropped three straight including 10-36 at BUF.
- H2H: BAL won last meeting 23-7, prior game 28-27 JAX.
- Total fell 42.5 to 40.5; spread held at 9.5.
JAX last 5W 42-7 vs INDL 31-34 vs HOUW 19-17 vs PHIW 22-17 @ CINW 35-6 vs NE
BAL last 5L 10-36 @ BUFL 13-35 vs CINL 10-13 @ CLEW 30-23 @ ATLW 24-18 vs TEN
Head-to-head
- Dec 17, 2023 BAL 23 at JAX 7
- Nov 27, 2022 BAL 27 at JAX 28
Watch list
- Tuten questionable: his status sets the Jacksonville backfield split.
- Fagnano questionable: confirm he starts or the Ravens total craters further.
- Gusts to 23 mph: recheck wind before trusting passing props.
- Total move 42.5 to 40.5: further drop strengthens the under.
Week 9 slate
All 15 games this week.
JAX @ BAL
Thu 8:15 PM ET
JAX -9.5
O/U 40.5
Ready
CIN @ ATL
Sun 9:30 AM ET
CIN -3
O/U 52.5
Unlocks Fri 9:30 AM
CLE @ NO
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NO -1.5
O/U 42.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
DAL @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DAL -5.5
O/U 51.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
DEN @ CAR
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DEN -3
O/U 43.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
DET @ MIA
Sun 1:00 PM ET
DET -7
O/U 50.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
LA @ WAS
Sun 1:00 PM ET
LA -5.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NYG @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NYG -3
O/U 39.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
NYJ @ KC
Sun 1:00 PM ET
KC -9.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
HOU @ LAC
Sun 4:05 PM ET
HOU -4.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 4:05 PM
ARI @ SEA
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SEA -11.5
O/U 41.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
GB @ NE
Sun 4:25 PM ET
NE -3
O/U 46.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
LV @ SF
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -9.5
O/U 52.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
TB @ CHI
Sun 8:20 PM ET
CHI -6.5
O/U 47.5
Unlocks Fri 8:20 PM
BUF @ MIN
Mon 8:15 PM ET
BUF -3
O/U 46.5
Unlocks Sat 8:15 PM