Milwaukee Brewers

75-48

Los Angeles Dodgers

74-50

4:10 PM ET Dodger Stadium SportsNet LA Day GameWeekend

Take Milwaukee moneyline at +166 behind the pitching mismatch of the day.

Logan Henderson is the far superior arm yet the Brewers are priced as clear underdogs.

SideBET AWAY ML MIL +166.

TotalPASS, 7.5 sits right on the combined implied total.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Henderson owns a 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP versus Skubal's 4.09.
MIL at +166 undersells a top-5 offense scoring 4.85 runs/game.
De-vigged totals gap is thin: LAD 4.1, MIL 3.4.

Best Bet Milwaukee moneyline at +166 is the highest-conviction play on the pitching edge.

Total7.5

MIL Win38%

LAD Win64%

Implied MIL3.4

Implied LAD4.1

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

LAD 1.5

MIL ML

+166 38%

LAD ML

-180 64%

MIL3.4

LAD4.1

The de-vigged implied totals sit at LAD 4.1 and MIL 3.4, a narrower spread than a -180 price implies given Henderson's clear edge over an 11-inning Skubal sample. That makes MIL +166 the soft number here. The total at 7.5 lines up close to the combined implied 7.5, offering little edge.

Pitching Matchup

MIL

Logan Henderson

6-2 · 56.1 IP

ERA

2.88

WHIP

0.91

K/9

11.1

BB/9

1.8

LAD

Tarik Skubal

0-1 · 11.0 IP

ERA

4.09

WHIP

1.09

K/9

9.8

BB/9

3.3

Henderson brings the cleaner profile with elite command (1.76 BB/9) and swing-and-miss (11.07 K/9), sitting on a tiny 6.42 H/9. Skubal has just 11.0 IP of data with a shakier 3.27 BB/9 and 1.09 WHIP, so the reliability edge tilts firmly to Milwaukee.

Offense Comparison

MILRank of 30LAD

4.9 #5 Runs / G 5.0 #4

0.250 #7 AVG 0.259 #2

0.91 #30 HR / G 1.27 #8

8.37 #15 K / G 7.84 #25

The Dodgers lean contact and rarely whiff (AVG rank 2, K rank 25), which is exactly the profile that can dent Henderson if he elevates. Milwaukee counters with a balanced top-5 scoring group but the worst power in baseball (0.91 HR/game, rank 30), so their runs come station-to-station rather than via the stack.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 4:10 PM ET

8 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

86°

Rain

Humidity

32%

dry, denser air

Now: 74° · 2 mph out to LF · Sunny

Outdoor day game at 86F with an 8 mph wind blowing out to center, a modestly positive push for carry and run scoring.

DFS Angles

Lean a Dodgers mini-stack given their contact-heavy lineup (AVG rank 2, K rank 25) and the wind aiding carry, with Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts the core pieces.

Target Henderson as a strong SP anchor on his 2.88 ERA and 11.07 K/9; treat Skubal as a fade given the 4.09 ERA and thin 11.0-inning sample.

MIL top bats

Jackson Chourio 10.0 proj · $5,300 · 1.9x
Andrew Vaughn 9.1 proj · $3,300 · 2.8x
Jake Bauers 8.8 proj · $4,400 · 2.0x
Gary Sanchez 8.7 proj · $3,700 · 2.4x
William Contreras 8.2 proj · $4,000 · 2.0x

LAD top bats

Shohei Ohtani 14.5 proj · $6,500 · 2.2x
Freddie Freeman 11.4 proj · $5,700 · 2.0x
Kyle Tucker 11.1 proj · $4,200 · 2.6x
Andy Pages 10.4 proj · $4,600 · 2.3x
Mookie Betts 9.4 proj · $4,100 · 2.3x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Shohei Ohtani - over hits/total bases lean - top projection at 14.5 fpts with 1.72 H.
Kyle Tucker - value RBI lean - 2.63x at $4200 with 0.74 projected RBI.
Andrew Vaughn - hits lean - 2.77x value at $3300 with 1.16 projected H.
Jackson Chourio - hits lean - leadoff bat projecting 1.21 H.

On watch