Baltimore Orioles

58-62

Tampa Bay Rays

74-46

7:10 PM ET Tropicana Field Rays.TV Divisional

Attack Steven Matz and his 5.46 ERA with cheap Baltimore bats, but pass the sides until the Orioles starter is confirmed.

Matz is a soft home-side arm and Baltimore has multiple high-leverage value plays, yet a blank BAL probable and no Tampa Bay offense data cap any confident bet.

SidePASS

TotalPASS

Lean5/10

Confidence

Matz carries a 5.46 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 62.2 innings.
Baltimore sits 14th in HR/game at 1.18 with power upside.
Tampa Bay implied at 4.3 versus Baltimore 3.7 runs.

Best Bet Roster Baltimore value bats against Matz in DFS rather than betting a side or total tonight.

Total8.0

BAL Win40%

TB Win62%

Implied BAL3.7

Implied TB4.3

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

TB 1.5

BAL ML

+148 40%

TB ML

-160 62%

BAL3.7

TB4.3

De-vigged team totals put Tampa Bay at 4.3 and Baltimore at 3.7, with the Rays priced -160 versus BAL +148. That gap looks reasonable but the Baltimore starter is unconfirmed, so the number is hard to attack with confidence. Nothing here beats the read cleanly enough to fire a side.

Pitching Matchup

BAL

Probable not confirmed

Steven Matz

5-4 · 62.2 IP

ERA

5.46

WHIP

1.23

K/9

7.0

BB/9

2.9

Matz brings modest stuff with a 6.95 K/9 and decent 2.89 BB/9, but the 5.46 ERA and 8.25 H/9 mean plenty of hard contact allowed. Baltimore's probable is not confirmed, so no side of the pitching matchup can be graded. Advantage is impossible to award cleanly with one arm still N/A.

Offense Comparison

BALRank of 30TB

4.5 #15 Runs / G —

0.235 #25 AVG —

1.18 #14 HR / G —

9.19 #4 K / G —

Baltimore ranks 15th in runs per game but whiffs a lot, sitting 4th in strikeouts per game, which pairs oddly against a low-strikeout Matz who lets bats put balls in play. That contact profile gives the Orioles real stack appeal even at a poor .235 team average. Tampa Bay's offensive profile is not available in the brief, so their matchup edge cannot be assessed.

Weather & Park

Indoor / climate-controlled stadium: weather is a non-factor.

Tropicana Field is a dome, so weather is a non-factor and run scoring will not be pushed either direction by conditions.

DFS Angles

Stack Baltimore against Matz, whose 5.46 ERA and low strikeout rate invite the Orioles' power bats even in a neutral dome.

Fade Matz given his 5.46 ERA and 8.25 H/9; the Baltimore starter is N/A, so no counter-target can be endorsed.

BAL top bats

Pete Alonso 12.5 proj · $5,100 · 2.4x
Tyler O'Neill 12.1 proj · $2,900 · 4.2x
Coby Mayo 10.5 proj · $3,500 · 3.0x
Gunnar Henderson 10.0 proj · $4,600 · 2.2x
Christian Franklin 9.4 proj · $2,000 · 4.7x

TB top bats

Jonathan Aranda 12.6 proj · $4,500 · 2.8x
Junior Caminero 11.8 proj · $6,300 · 1.9x
Liam Hicks 11.3 proj · $4,300 · 2.6x
Yandy Diaz 11.1 proj · $5,300 · 2.1x
Chandler Simpson 9.9 proj · $4,100 · 2.4x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Chandler Simpson - over hits lean - projected 2.03 hits leads all bats in the brief.
Jonathan Aranda - over hits lean - 1.80 projected hits and top TB fpts at 12.6.
Tyler O'Neill - HR/hits lean - 4.18x value at only DK $2900 against Matz.
Coby Mayo - HR lean - team-high 0.38 projected homers at DK $3500.

On watch

Christian Franklin - leadoff bat at DK $2000 and 4.68x if he stays in the order.
Junior Caminero - priciest bat at DK $6300 with 0.33 projected homers.
Pete Alonso - 12.5 projected fpts anchoring the Baltimore middle.
Yandy Diaz - 1.61 projected hits from the Tampa Bay leadoff spot.

View all BAL & TB props →