St. Louis Cardinals

61-60

Chicago Cubs

71-51

2:20 PM ET Wrigley Field Apple TV DivisionalDay Game

Back the Cubs at home as their elite offense faces a struggling Liberatore, but wind knocking down power tempers the over.

Chicago's 5.20 runs per game and a 4.4 implied total tower over St. Louis while Wrigley's in-blowing wind caps ceiling.

SideBET HOME ML at CHC -172.

TotalBET UNDER 8.0 given the in-blowing wind.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Cubs rank 2/30 in runs at 5.20 per game.
Liberatore carries a 5.15 ERA, 1.52 WHIP over 113.2 innings.
Wind 8 mph in from LF flagged negative for scoring.

Best Bet Cubs moneyline at -172, backing the far superior offense at home against a leaky Liberatore.

Total8.0

STL Win39%

CHC Win63%

Implied STL3.6

Implied CHC4.4

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

CHC 1.5

STL ML

+158 39%

CHC ML

-172 63%

STL3.6

CHC4.4

The de-vigged implied totals sit at STL 3.6 and CHC 4.4, and CHC at -172 matches their status as the stronger, higher-total side. The number looks fair rather than soft, offering no glaring price edge to attack on the moneyline. The total at 8.0 feels rich once you factor the wind, nudging toward the under.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Matthew Liberatore

5-9 · 113.2 IP

ERA

5.15

WHIP

1.52

K/9

8.8

BB/9

3.4

CHC

Clay Holmes

0-1 · 4.0 IP

ERA

9.00

WHIP

2.00

K/9

2.3

BB/9

4.5

Neither arm inspires confidence: Liberatore misses bats at 8.75 K/9 but leaks baserunners with a 1.52 WHIP and 10.34 H/9, while Holmes has just 4.0 innings logged with a 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, and an alarming 2.25 K/9 in a tiny sample. If that Holmes line is his true form the edge tilts St. Louis, but the sample is too thin to trust either starter deep into the day. Liberatore is the steadier profile on volume alone.

Offense Comparison

STLRank of 30CHC

4.4 #19 Runs / G 5.2 #2

0.240 #20 AVG 0.249 #9

1.01 #25 HR / G 1.27 #8

7.71 #27 K / G 8.62 #8

Chicago's lineup is the deeper threat, fronted by Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki with real power up top, giving it the premier stack appeal against a hittable lefty. St. Louis leans contact-challenged, striking out often and lacking pop, so its bats need to string singles rather than slug against Holmes. The Cubs are the clear stack over a thinner Cardinals order.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 2:20 PM ET

8 mph in from LF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

78°

Rain

13%

Humidity

90%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Now: 74° · 8 mph R to L cross · Sunny

Wrigley is outdoor and sunny at 78F, but the 8 mph wind blowing in from left field is explicitly flagged as a negative for run scoring, which trims fly-ball damage. That environment argues against a shootout despite two shaky starters.

DFS Angles

Stack the Cubs; their 2nd-ranked offense and top-heavy power lineup best exploit Liberatore's 1.52 WHIP even with the wind in.

Fade both starters given Holmes' 9.00 ERA sample and Liberatore's 5.15 ERA; if forced, Liberatore's 8.75 K/9 is the only strikeout equity worth a punt.

STL top bats

Alec Burleson 10.7 proj · $8,800 · 1.2x
JJ Wetherholt 9.7 proj · $8,000 · 1.2x
Ivan Herrera 9.6 proj · $7,000 · 1.4x
Jordan Walker 9.1 proj · $9,200 · 1.0x
Masyn Winn 7.7 proj · $6,000 · 1.3x

CHC top bats

Pete Crow-Armstrong 13.9 proj · $10,600 · 1.3x
Seiya Suzuki 13.0 proj · $9,600 · 1.4x
Michael Busch 12.0 proj · $7,800 · 1.5x
Alex Bregman 11.8 proj · $8,400 · 1.4x
Carson Kelly 10.9 proj · $5,600 · 1.9x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Pete Crow-Armstrong - over hits lean - team-best 1.52 projected hits atop the order.
Michael Busch - RBI lean - 1.02 projected RBI and 1.54x value.
Carson Kelly - value play - 1.94x on just $5600 DK salary.
Seiya Suzuki - over total bases lean - 0.29 projected HR and 1.36x value.

On watch