Archived pregame breakdown. This is how the matchup looked before first pitch on August 13, 2026: the odds, projected lineups and picks shown were pregame numbers and are not live. See today's games

Milwaukee Brewers

73-47

Los Angeles Dodgers

73-48

10:10 PM ET Dodger Stadium MLB.TV

Take Milwaukee at plus-128 as live-dog value behind the clear starting-pitching edge.

Drohan brings the sharper ratios into a game the market still tilts toward Los Angeles.

SideBET AWAY ML at MIL +128.

TotalPASS

Lean6/10

Confidence

Drohan ERA 3.87, WHIP 1.25 tops Sasaki 4.54, 1.28.
MIL offense ranks 5th in runs, 5th in AVG.
Plus-128 implies just 43.9 percent for a top-5 offense.

Best Bet Milwaukee moneyline at plus-128 is the highest-conviction play, backing the better arm at dog value.

Total8.5

MIL Win44%

LAD Win58%

Implied MIL4.0

Implied LAD4.5

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

LAD 1.5

MIL ML

+128 44%

LAD ML

-138 58%

MIL4.0

LAD4.5

The de-vigged implied totals sit at MIL 4.0 and LAD 4.5, and plus-128 on Milwaukee prices a top-5 offense with the better starter at under 44 percent, which reads slightly generous. The total of 8.5 matches the combined implied runs almost exactly, offering no clear de-vigged edge either way. The side, not the number, is where the value lives.

Pitching Matchup

MIL

Shane Drohan

6-4 · 93.0 IP

ERA

3.87

WHIP

1.25

K/9

9.0

BB/9

2.7

LAD

Roki Sasaki

5-5 · 105.0 IP

ERA

4.54

WHIP

1.28

K/9

9.1

BB/9

3.4

Drohan owns the cleaner profile with a 3.87 ERA and 2.71 BB/9, showing better command than Sasaki, whose 3.43 BB/9 and 4.54 ERA leave more margin for damage. Both miss bats near a strikeout per inning, but the walk gap and run-prevention edge point to Milwaukee's arm as the safer bet tonight.

Offense Comparison

MILRank of 30LAD

4.9 #5 Runs / G 5.0 #3

0.252 #5 AVG 0.261 #1

0.92 #30 HR / G 1.27 #7

8.28 #17 K / G 7.82 #26

Los Angeles is the tougher lineup to navigate, leading the league in batting average and ranking 26th in strikeouts per game, so they put the ball in play against Drohan relentlessly. Milwaukee contact-hits well but ranks dead last, 30th, in home runs per game, capping its stack ceiling despite a strong average, while the Dodgers' 7th-ranked power gives them the higher slugging path.

Weather & Park

Current conditions

3 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

68°

Humidity

85%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Outdoor at Dodger Stadium, overcast and 68F with a 3 mph breeze out to left field flagged as a positive for scoring, a mild nudge toward the ball carrying.

DFS Angles

Stack the Dodgers against Sasaki's 3.43 BB/9, leaning on their league-best average, 7th-ranked power, and the positive wind to left field. Ohtani and Pages anchor the highest-upside bats on the slate.

Target Drohan as the value SP given his 3.87 ERA and superior command, while Sasaki profiles as a fade with a 4.54 ERA facing a top-5 Brewers offense.

MIL top bats

Jackson Chourio 12.2 proj · $5,700 · 2.1x
Brice Turang 12.2 proj · $5,400 · 2.3x
Jake Bauers 11.3 proj · $4,900 · 2.3x
Garrett Mitchell 10.9 proj · $4,000 · 2.7x
Christian Yelich 10.2 proj · $4,600 · 2.2x

LAD top bats

Shohei Ohtani 13.0 proj · $6,500 · 2.0x
Andy Pages 12.3 proj · $4,800 · 2.6x
Freddie Freeman 11.0 proj · $5,500 · 2.0x
Tommy Edman 11.0 proj · $4,100 · 2.7x
Mookie Betts 10.8 proj · $4,000 · 2.7x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Andy Pages - hits over lean - projects 1.49 H against Sasaki-less matchup upside at $4800.
Tommy Edman - hits over lean - team-high 1.61 projected hits at just $4100.
Brice Turang - hits over lean - leadoff bat with 1.67 projected hits.
Shohei Ohtani - total bases lean - 1.54 H and 0.28 HR projection tops the slate.

On watch