Pittsburgh Pirates

58-64

Miami Marlins

62-59

1:10 PM ET LoanDepot Park MLB.TV Day Game

Back the Pirates on the road, their top-five offense should feast on Tyler Phillips.

Pittsburgh pairs the better arm and the better bats while the price sits at just PIT -122.

SideBET AWAY ML at PIT -122.

TotalPASS, the 8.0 sits right on the 8.0 combined implied total.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Pirates rank 4th in runs at 4.98 per game.
Phillips carries a bloated 1.36 WHIP, 3.77 BB/9.
Ashcraft owns 9.88 K/9, tidy 1.16 WHIP.

Best Bet Pirates moneyline at -122, backing the superior arm and a top-five offense against a high-WHIP starter.

Total8.0

PIT Win55%

MIA Win47%

Implied PIT4.1

Implied MIA3.9

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

MIA 1.5

PIT ML

-122 55%

MIA ML

+112 47%

PIT4.1

MIA3.9

De-vigged team totals land at PIT 4.1 and MIA 3.9, and the ML at PIT -122 lines up cleanly with those implied numbers rather than offering a big overlay. The Pittsburgh side is fair value given the pitching edge, but there is no glaring softness to exploit at that price. The total of 8.0 also sits right on the combined implied total, leaving little room.

Pitching Matchup

PIT

Braxton Ashcraft

11-5 · 132.1 IP

ERA

4.08

WHIP

1.16

K/9

9.9

BB/9

2.2

MIA

Tyler Phillips

3-5 · 93.1 IP

ERA

3.47

WHIP

1.36

K/9

6.8

BB/9

3.8

Ashcraft is the clear edge, missing bats at 9.88 K/9 with a strong 2.18 BB/9 that keeps his WHIP down to 1.16. Phillips posts a respectable 3.47 ERA but the peripherals are shakier, a modest 6.77 K/9 paired with 3.77 BB/9 and a 1.36 WHIP that invites traffic. Command and swing-and-miss both favor the Pittsburgh side.

Offense Comparison

PITrank of 30MIA

5.0 4 Runs / G 18 4.4

0.256 3 AVG 8 0.250

1.20 12 HR / G 26 1.01

9.46 3 K / G 19 8.12

Pittsburgh brings a contact-heavy lineup, ranking 3rd in average at .256, and Phillips' low strikeout rate lets that group put balls in play against him. Miami sits 18th in runs and just 26th in home runs at 1.01 per game, a light power profile that struggles to break out against a bat-misser like Ashcraft. The Pirates are the more reliable stack; the Marlins need contact-driven rallies rather than the long ball.

Weather & Park

Indoor / climate-controlled stadium: weather is a non-factor.

LoanDepot Park is a dome, so weather is a non-factor and run scoring comes down purely to the arms and bats on the field.

DFS Angles

Stack the Pirates against Phillips' 1.36 WHIP and 3.77 BB/9; their top-five offense and 3rd-ranked contact profile is the best rally source in a run-neutral dome.

Ashcraft is the premium SP target given his 9.88 K/9 and matchup against Miami's 26th-ranked power. Fade Phillips, whose low K/9 and high walk rate cap his DFS ceiling.

PIT top bats

Brandon Lowe 12.5 proj · $5,400 · 2.3x
Bryan Reynolds 12.3 proj · $4,900 · 2.5x
Spencer Horwitz 11.6 proj · $3,900 · 3.0x
Jake Mangum 11.1 proj · $4,000 · 2.8x
Esmerlyn Valdez 9.8 proj · $4,400 · 2.2x

MIA top bats

Xavier Edwards 10.1 proj · $4,100 · 2.5x
Griffin Conine 9.7 proj · $3,500 · 2.8x
Otto Lopez 9.7 proj · $4,600 · 2.1x
Jakob Marsee 9.4 proj · $3,400 · 2.8x
Heriberto Hernandez 9.1 proj · $3,800 · 2.4x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Jake Mangum - over hits lean - projects a team-best 2.15 hits atop the order.
Bryan Reynolds - over hits lean - 1.46 projected hits against a contact-prone starter.
Spencer Horwitz - hits lean - 1.42 projected hits at a cheap $3900, 2.98x value.
Braxton Ashcraft - strikeouts lean - 9.88 K/9 versus Miami's 19th-ranked whiff-prone bats.

On watch