Archived pregame breakdown. This is how the matchup looked before first pitch on August 15, 2026: the odds, projected lineups and picks shown were pregame numbers and are not live. See today's games

New York Yankees

68-54

Toronto Blue Jays

60-64

3:07 PM ET Rogers Centre YES DivisionalDay GameWeekend

Back Gerrit Cole and the Yankees on the road ML at -164 against a scuffling Blue Jays offense.

Cole's elite command and Bieber's control problems tilt this divisional day game toward New York.

SideBET AWAY ML at -164

TotalBET UNDER 7.5

Strong7/10

Confidence

Cole owns a 3.22 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 86.2 innings.
Bieber counters with a 4.99 ERA and bloated 1.56 WHIP.
Toronto's offense ranks 29/30 in runs at 3.91 per game.

Best Bet Yankees moneyline at -164 is the highest-conviction play behind Cole's edge.

Total7.5

NYY Win62%

TOR Win40%

Implied NYY4.1

Implied TOR3.4

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

TOR 1.5

NYY ML

-164 62%

TOR ML

+152 40%

NYY4.1

TOR3.4

The de-vigged implied totals sit at NYY 4.1 and TOR 3.4, and the Yankees at -164 line up with the pitching mismatch rather than fading it. Toronto's 3.4 implied total feels generous given a bottom-tier offense facing Cole. The number looks fair on the side but leaves modest value chasing the away favorite.

Pitching Matchup

NYY

Gerrit Cole

6-6 · 86.2 IP

ERA

3.22

WHIP

1.08

K/9

9.6

BB/9

2.0

TOR

Shane Bieber

4-2 · 48.2 IP

ERA

4.99

WHIP

1.56

K/9

6.9

BB/9

4.5

Cole is the clear edge here, pairing a 9.61 K/9 with a stingy 1.98 BB/9 that keeps traffic off the bases. Bieber has been hittable and wild, with a 6.91 K/9 undercut by a 4.48 BB/9 and 9.71 H/9. That command gap is the single biggest lever in this game.

Offense Comparison

NYYRank of 30TOR

4.5 #15 Runs / G 3.9 #29

0.230 #28 AVG 0.242 #19

1.39 #2 HR / G 0.94 #29

9.13 #5 K / G 7.27 #29

New York brings the power, ranking 2/30 in home runs at 1.39 per game, which punishes a Bieber arm surrendering hard contact, though their 28/30 AVG means they live and die by the longball. Toronto is a contact-first group ranking 29/30 in strikeouts but also 29/30 in home runs, a shape that struggles to string rallies against Cole's swing-and-miss stuff.

Weather & Park

Indoor / climate-controlled stadium: weather is a non-factor.

Rogers Centre is a dome or retractable-roof park, so treat weather as a non-factor with no wind or temperature impact on scoring.

DFS Angles

Stack the Yankees against Bieber's 4.48 BB/9 and 9.71 H/9, leaning on their power bats for upside in this dome. Toronto's 29/30 home run rate makes them a weak counter-stack against Cole.

Target Gerrit Cole as the premium arm given his 3.22 ERA and 9.61 K/9 against a high-strikeout Toronto lineup. Fade Bieber, whose 4.99 ERA and control issues cap his ceiling.

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 13.7 proj · $6,000 · 2.3x
Trent Grisham 12.1 proj · $4,600 · 2.6x
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 11.0 proj · $4,700 · 2.4x
Luis Garcia Jr. 10.6 proj · $4,900 · 2.2x
Heliot Ramos 10.5 proj · $3,800 · 2.8x

TOR top bats

George Springer 9.0 proj · $4,000 · 2.3x
Kazuma Okamoto 8.7 proj · $3,800 · 2.3x
Alejandro Kirk 8.5 proj · $3,500 · 2.4x
Brett Bateman 7.2 proj · $2,600 · 2.8x
Nathan Lukes 7.1 proj · $2,900 · 2.4x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Ben Rice - over hits/HR lean - top projected Yankee at 13.7 fpts with 0.44 HR.
Heliot Ramos - hits lean - best value multiplier at 2.77x with 1.61 projected hits.
George Springer - under production lean - just 9.0 fpts facing Cole.
Alejandro Kirk - contact lean - 1.17 projected hits fits Toronto's contact profile.

On watch