St. Louis Cardinals

64-62

Cincinnati Reds

60-65

6:40 PM ET Great American Ball Park Reds.TV Divisional

Lean the under 8.5 with wind blowing in and Leahy holding the clear arm edge.

A negative-impact wind, a strikeout-prone Reds lineup, and the steadier starter all point below the number.

SidePASS, the market prices STL -116 fairly against the de-vigged totals.

TotalBET UNDER 8.5, wind in plus MLB-most Reds strikeouts.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Wind 6 mph in from RF at first pitch flags negative run impact.
Reds strike out most in MLB, 9.52 K/game, rank 1/30.
Leahy 3.38 ERA tops Abbott 4.06 with tidier 2.69 BB/9.

Best Bet Under 8.5 is the top play with wind blowing in and Leahy's strikeout edge over a whiff-heavy Reds lineup.

Total8.5

STL Win54%

CIN Win49%

Implied STL4.3

Implied CIN4.2

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

CIN 1.5

STL ML

-116 54%

CIN ML

+106 49%

STL4.3

CIN4.2

The de-vigged team totals sit tight at STL 4.3 and CIN 4.2, and St. Louis is only a slim -116 favorite, so there is no glaring side value. The total of 8.5 is where the softness lives, as the implied 8.5 combined runs runs ahead of a wind-suppressed park facing two contact-limited offenses. That number is beatable to the under.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Kyle Leahy

9-4 · 117.1 IP

ERA

3.38

WHIP

1.34

K/9

8.1

BB/9

2.7

CIN

Andrew Abbott

6-7 · 133.0 IP

ERA

4.06

WHIP

1.41

K/9

6.9

BB/9

4.3

Leahy owns the edge with a 3.38 ERA, 8.07 K/9, and a manageable 2.69 BB/9 that keeps traffic down. Abbott counters with a 4.06 ERA but shakier control at 4.33 BB/9 and a lower 6.90 K/9, so his margin for error is thin. Advantage clearly to the Cardinals righty on both stuff and command.

Offense Comparison

STLRank of 30CIN

4.4 #19 Runs / G 4.1 #25

0.240 #21 AVG 0.227 #30

1.03 #22 HR / G 1.30 #6

7.72 #27 K / G 9.52 #1

Cincinnati brings real thump ranking 6/30 in HR/game but pairs it with a league-worst .227 AVG and MLB-most strikeouts, a boom-or-bust profile that Leahy's swing-and-miss can exploit. St. Louis is more contact-oriented, ranking 21/30 in AVG and 27/30 in strikeouts avoided, so it depends on stringing hits against Abbott's walk-prone command. Neither is a premium stack, though Reds power gives some ceiling if balls carry.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 6:40 PM ET

6 mph in from RF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

76°

Rain

12%

Humidity

58%

moderate

Now: 69° · 4 mph in from RF · Moderate rain at times

Great American is outdoor with overcast skies, 76F, and a 6 mph wind blowing in from right field flagged as a negative for run scoring. That knocks down some of the Reds' natural home-run appeal.

DFS Angles

If chasing upside, a light Reds mini-stack around Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart carries the most raw power (6/30 HR/game), but the wind in tempers ceiling. St. Louis is a cash-lineup source, not a leverage stack.

Target Kyle Leahy against a lineup fanning 9.52 times per game and hitting just .227. Fade or avoid Abbott given his 4.33 BB/9 and 4.06 ERA.

STL top bats