Back Jesus Luzardo to dominate a whiff-prone Cardinals lineup at Citizens Bank Park.
His 11.09 K/9 collides with a St. Louis offense that strikes out at a bottom-tier clip.
- Luzardo 3.23 ERA, 1.14 WHIP dwarfs McGreevy's 6.24 K/9.
- STL offense ranks 27/30 in K/game at 7.74.
- PHI implied 4.6 runs versus STL's soft 3.4.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged team totals (STL 3.4, PHI 4.6) line up cleanly with the pitching mismatch, so the number looks efficient rather than soft. Phillies at -250 is a steep price with little margin to beat, and the 8.0 total sits right where the implied runs land. No standout edge on the side or number.
Pitching Matchup
Luzardo is the clear edge with elite swing-and-miss (11.09 K/9) and tidy 2.76 BB/9 command, a nasty combo against contact-challenged bats. McGreevy is a steady strike-thrower (2.36 BB/9) but generates little whiff at 6.24 K/9, meaning he needs weak contact to survive. Advantage decisively Philadelphia's arm.
Offense Comparison
St. Louis brings a low-power, high-strikeout profile that is a poor stylistic match for Luzardo's stuff, sapping stack appeal. Philadelphia's lineup carries more thump (11th in HR/game) and a top-heavy core that can punish McGreevy's contact-oriented approach. The Phillies are the more dangerous unit tonight.
Weather & Park
Outdoor at 80F with a neutral 4 mph left-to-right cross and just 11% rain chance, so conditions are effectively run-neutral at first pitch. No meaningful boost or suppression to bake in.
DFS Angles
Lean a Phillies mini-stack around Schwarber, Harper, and Turner given their power edge and 4.6 implied runs against McGreevy's low-strikeout profile.
Target Luzardo as a premium strikeout arm versus a K-prone lineup; fade McGreevy given his limited whiff upside.
- Alec Burleson 14.8 proj · $8,200 · 1.8x
- JJ Wetherholt 12.9 proj · $7,200 · 1.8x
- Ivan Herrera 11.4 proj · $6,800 · 1.7x
- Jordan Walker 11.3 proj · $8,800 · 1.3x
- Joshua Baez 10.8 proj · $5,200 · 2.1x
- Kyle Schwarber 14.5 proj · $9,800 · 1.5x
- Bryce Harper 14.1 proj · $9,400 · 1.5x
- Trea Turner 12.3 proj · $8,400 · 1.5x
- Bryson Stott 10.8 proj · $7,000 · 1.6x
- Alec Bohm 10.2 proj · $6,200 · 1.6x
Players to Watch
- Kyle Schwarber - HR lean - projects a robust 0.45 HR with 14.5 fpts.
- Bryce Harper - total bases lean - 1.35 H and 0.30 HR projection against McGreevy.
- Alec Burleson - hits lean - top STL bat at 1.65 projected hits.
- Joshua Baez - cheap $5200 dart with 0.50 HR and 2.07x value.
- Trea Turner - 1.63 projected hits sets table atop the order.
- Alec Bohm - value bat at $6200 with 1.50 projected hits.
- JJ Wetherholt - leadoff bat projecting 1.50 hits for STL.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: STL 2 – PHI 1
Cardinals lead the season series 2-1.
Today's MLB Slate
ATL @ MIL
STL @ PHI
TOR @ NYY
SF @ BOS
WAS @ MIA
TB @ BAL
NYM @ CWS
DET @ KC
ATH @ HOU
LAA @ TEX
CLE @ COL
CIN @ ARI
MIN @ SD
PIT @ LAD
CHC @ SEA
