Baltimore Orioles

65-67

St. Louis Cardinals

66-68

2:15 PM ET Busch Stadium MASN Day Game

Lean Under 8 with wind blowing in from right field suppressing power at Busch.

Both de-vigged team totals sit under 4.2 and neither offense profiles as a power monster today.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 8.0

Lean6/10

Confidence

Wind 6 mph in from RF flagged negative for run scoring.
De-vigged team totals are just BAL 4.1, STL 3.9.
McGreevy owns a 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP with 2.41 BB/9.

Best Bet Under 8.0, backed by the negative RF wind and modest implied team totals.

Total8.0

BAL Win54%

STL Win48%

Implied BAL4.1

Implied STL3.9

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

STL 1.5

BAL ML

-118 54%

STL ML

+110 48%

BAL4.1

STL3.9

The de-vigged team totals of 4.1 and 4.2 imply a game closer to 8, so the number is priced fairly with only a mild tilt below. BAL at -118 is a slim road favorite despite the better offense, and STL at +110 offers modest value if you trust the McGreevy command edge. No side screams mispriced, but the total leans slightly rich given the wind.

Pitching Matchup

BAL

Kyle Bradish

7-12 · 143.0 IP

ERA

4.15

WHIP

1.42

K/9

8.4

BB/9

3.9

STL

Michael McGreevy

5-9 · 142.1 IP

ERA

3.86

WHIP

1.25

K/9

6.2

BB/9

2.4

McGreevy is the steadier arm, pounding the zone with a 2.41 BB/9 and 1.25 WHIP, though his 6.21 K/9 means he pitches to contact. Bradish misses more bats at 8.37 K/9 but his 3.90 BB/9 and 1.42 WHIP invite traffic and elevate his pitch count. Command edge and overall efficiency go to McGreevy.

Offense Comparison

BALRank of 30STL

4.5 #11 Runs / G 4.4 #18

0.237 #24 AVG 0.241 #20

1.23 #9 HR / G 1.04 #21

9.19 #5 K / G 7.81 #27

Baltimore brings the more dangerous top-to-bottom group, ranking 9th in HR/game, and a lefty-leaning core of Henderson and Holliday can punish mistakes. St. Louis makes the most contact in the sport, ranking 27th in strikeouts per game, which fits well against a walk-prone Bradish but the group ranks 21st in home run pop. Neither lineup screams elite stack, but BAL carries more slugging upside.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 2:15 PM ET

6 mph in from RF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Partly Cloudy

Temp

87°

Rain

Humidity

34%

dry, denser air

Now: 72° · 4 mph in from RF · Sunny

Outdoor day game at 87F with 6 mph blowing in from right field, explicitly tagged as a negative for run scoring. That wind knocks down carry and nudges this toward pitching.

DFS Angles

If forced to stack, favor Baltimore for its 9th-ranked HR/game power around Alonso and Henderson, though the in-blowing wind caps ceilings for both sides. St. Louis is more a spot for cheap contact plays than a power stack given its 21st HR ranking.

McGreevy is the better DFS anchor thanks to his 3.86 ERA and command in a wind-suppressed park, but his 6.21 K/9 limits strikeout upside. Bradish is a higher-variance strikeout dart at 8.37 K/9 who carries WHIP risk against a contact-heavy St. Louis lineup.

BAL top bats