Cincinnati Reds

64-72

Chicago Cubs

77-59

7:20 PM ET Wrigley Field NBC/Peacock DivisionalWeekend

Take Cincinnati moneyline at +142 behind Chase Burns, the clear pitching edge in this spot.

Burns brings a 2.77 ERA and elite whiff rate against a Cubs lineup priced as a modest home favorite.

SideBET AWAY ML at CIN +142.

TotalPASS on 9.0 with the wind out but Burns elite.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Burns owns a 2.77 ERA and 10.60 K/9 over 139.2 innings.
Cubs favored at just -154 despite facing that arm.
CIN implied at 4.2 undervalues 1.32 HR/game, 5th-ranked power.

Best Bet Cincinnati moneyline at +142 is the highest-conviction play, buying Burns as an underdog.

Total9.0

CIN Win41%

CHC Win61%

Implied CIN4.2

Implied CHC4.8

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

CHC 1.5

CIN ML

+142 41%

CHC ML

-154 61%

CIN4.2

CHC4.8

De-vigged implied totals sit at CIN 4.2 and CHC 4.8, a narrow gap given the pitching mismatch tilts toward the road side. The Cubs at -154 look a touch rich when their opponent runs out the stronger starter. The +142 return on the Reds beats our read on Burns.

Pitching Matchup

CIN

Chase Burns

14-3 · 139.2 IP

ERA

2.77

WHIP

1.15

K/9

10.6

BB/9

3.2

CHC

Shota Imanaga

8-9 · 145.1 IP

ERA

3.84

WHIP

1.12

K/9

8.9

BB/9

2.1

Burns is the superior arm here, pairing a 2.77 ERA with a 10.60 K/9 that misses bats at will, though his 3.17 BB/9 leaves some traffic. Imanaga counters with pristine control, a 2.11 BB/9 and 1.12 WHIP, but his 3.84 ERA and 8.00 H/9 make him more hittable. Edge clearly to Burns on raw stuff and strikeout upside.

Offense Comparison

CINRank of 30CHC

4.1 #23 Runs / G 5.3 #1

0.227 #30 AVG 0.251 #6

1.32 #5 HR / G 1.36 #2

9.51 #1 K / G 8.52 #11

Chicago's lineup is the deepest threat, leading the league in runs and posting the 2nd-most homers, and it stacks well top to bottom against Burns. Cincinnati is a boom-or-bust unit, dead-last in average with the most strikeouts, but capable of quick damage via its 5th-ranked home run rate off Imanaga. Whiff-prone Reds bats are a natural target for Imanaga's control.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 7:20 PM ET

10 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

84°

Rain

Humidity

52%

moderate

Now: 70° · 9 mph out to LF · Moderate rain

Wrigley is outdoor with sunny skies, 84F, and a 10 mph wind blowing out to left field, a positive push for run scoring and fly-ball carry. That environment slightly favors the power bats on both sides.

DFS Angles

Stack the Cubs, the league's top-scoring offense, with the wind blowing out to left and Crow-Armstrong projecting a game-high 15.0 fpts. A secondary Reds mini-stack around their power bats fits the friendly carry.

Burns is the premium play with strikeout upside against a K-friendly game script. Imanaga is a strong value target too, facing the league's most strikeout-prone lineup at high per-dollar value.

CIN top bats

Sal Stewart 11.9 proj · $8,400 · 1.4x
Elly De La Cruz 11.5 proj · $9,400 · 1.2x
Tyler Stephenson 10.6 proj · $5,400 · 2.0x
Eugenio Suarez 10.0 proj · $6,400 · 1.6x
JJ Bleday 9.6 proj · $7,600 · 1.3x

CHC top bats

Pete Crow-Armstrong 15.0 proj · $10,200 · 1.5x
Michael Busch 12.7 proj · $7,200 · 1.8x
Seiya Suzuki 11.6 proj · $8,600 · 1.4x
Ian Happ 11.5 proj · $6,800 · 1.7x
Alex Bregman 11.0 proj · $9,000 · 1.2x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Pete Crow-Armstrong - over hits/HR lean - team-best 15.0 fpts and 0.42 projected HR with wind out.
Tyler Stephenson - over total bases lean - 1.96x value and 1.35 projected hits.
Eugenio Suarez - HR lean - 0.30 projected homers into carrying wind.
Michael Busch - over hits lean - 1.77x value and 1.35 projected hits.

On watch

Chase Burns - his command against the league's best offense sets the game's ceiling.
Elly De La Cruz - top Reds threat at 11.5 fpts who swings the underdog case.
Seiya Suzuki - 0.26 projected HR that thrives with wind out to left.
Sal Stewart - team-high 11.9 fpts batting third for Cincinnati.

View all CIN & CHC props →