Colorado Rockies

46-71

St. Louis Cardinals

58-59

2:15 PM ET Busch Stadium Rockies.TV Day GameWeekend

Back St. Louis on the moneyline as McGreevy's control faces a Lorenzen start bleeding a 7.11 ERA.

The Cardinals draw a home-plate mismatch with a far steadier arm against a Rockies starter surrendering hits at will.

SideBET HOME ML STL -158

TotalBET OVER 9.5

Strong7/10

Confidence

McGreevy's 3.59 ERA and 1.20 WHIP dwarf Lorenzen's 7.11 and 1.85.
Lorenzen's 13.10 H/9 fuels St. Louis's 5.1 implied team total.
STL priced -158, a fair number given the arm gap.

Best Bet St. Louis moneyline at -158, backing McGreevy's command over a Lorenzen start bleeding hits.

Total9.5

COL Win41%

STL Win61%

Implied COL4.4

Implied STL5.1

Vegas / Market

Total

9.5

Run line

STL 1.5

COL ML

+146 41%

STL ML

-158 61%

COL4.4

STL5.1

The de-vigged totals split 5.1 St. Louis and 4.4 Colorado, and STL's -158 lines up with the pitching gap rather than screaming value. The moneyline looks efficient but justified given Lorenzen's numbers. The total sits exactly at the implied sum of 9.5, so the edge lives on the side, not a big number gap.

Pitching Matchup

COL

Michael Lorenzen

3-10 · 107.2 IP

ERA

7.11

WHIP

1.85

K/9

6.7

BB/9

3.6

STL

Michael McGreevy

4-9 · 120.1 IP

ERA

3.59

WHIP

1.20

K/9

6.1

BB/9

2.3

McGreevy owns the clear edge with a 1.20 WHIP, tidy 2.25 BB/9, and low 8.54 H/9, pounding the zone efficiently. Lorenzen is the opposite profile, a 1.85 WHIP and 3.61 BB/9 with hits pouring in at 13.10 per nine. Neither misses many bats, but McGreevy's command separates them decisively.

Offense Comparison

COLrank of 30STL

4.8 7 Runs / G 19 4.3

0.256 4 AVG 20 0.239

1.13 18 HR / G 22 1.03

8.67 8 K / G 27 7.71

St. Louis stacks a contact-heavy group (27th in strikeouts, meaning fewest whiffs) that should put balls in play against a hittable Lorenzen. Colorado actually carries the better slash line, ranking 7th in runs and 4th in average, but faces a strike-thrower who limits free bases. The Rockies rely on contact over power (18th in homers), a tougher path against McGreevy.

Weather & Park

12 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

89°

Humidity

63%

moderate

Hot and sunny at 89F with a feels-like 98F and a 12 mph wind blowing out to left, all pushing run scoring up in outdoor Busch Stadium.

DFS Angles

Stack St. Louis against Lorenzen's 1.85 WHIP with the wind out to left aiding fly balls; Burleson, Wetherholt, and Walker headline the value.

Target McGreevy as a stable arm facing a strikeout-heavy Rockies offense (8th most Ks) and fade Lorenzen entirely given his 7.11 ERA.

COL top bats

Cole Carrigg 12.2 proj · $4,200 · 2.9x
Hunter Goodman 11.9 proj · $5,500 · 2.2x
Jake McCarthy 11.7 proj · $4,400 · 2.7x
TJ Rumfield 11.4 proj · $3,800 · 3.0x
Mickey Moniak 11.2 proj · $5,000 · 2.2x

STL top bats

Alec Burleson 14.5 proj · $5,200 · 2.8x
JJ Wetherholt 13.0 proj · $5,000 · 2.6x
Ivan Herrera 12.9 proj · $4,200 · 3.1x
Jordan Walker 12.7 proj · $5,400 · 2.3x
Jimmy Crooks 10.6 proj · $2,500 · 4.2x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Alec Burleson - over hits/total bases lean - top projection at 14.4 fpts and 1.83 H off a hittable arm.
Ivan Herrera - hits lean - 1.78 projected hits with elite 3.06x value.
Jimmy Crooks - HR sprinkle lean - 0.25 projected HR at a bargain 4.22x with wind out to left.
Jordan Walker - RBI lean - 1.05 projected RBI batting cleanup against Lorenzen.

On watch

JJ Wetherholt - leadoff bat with 0.32 projected HR setting the table.
Hunter Goodman - Colorado's best power source at 0.40 projected HR against McGreevy.
Cole Carrigg - top Rockies value at 2.90x if COL keeps contact going.
Michael Lorenzen - his hit-suppression will decide whether the over cashes.

View all COL & STL props →