Tampa Bay Rays

70-46

Seattle Mariners

56-62

4:10 PM ET T-Mobile Park Rays.TV Day GameWeekend

Lean UNDER 7.5 with Hancock's sharp command facing baseball's weakest offense.

Seattle's league-worst run production and both starters' low WHIPs cap the ceiling.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 7.5

Lean6/10

Confidence

Hancock owns a 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 116.1 innings.
Seattle ranks 30th in runs (3.91) and 30th in AVG (.229).
De-vigged team totals sit at just TB 3.7, SEA 3.8.

Best Bet UNDER 7.5 is the highest-conviction play given Seattle's 30th-ranked offense and Hancock's command.

Total7.5

TB Win50%

SEA Win51%

Implied TB3.7

Implied SEA3.8

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

SEA 1.5

TB ML

-102 50%

SEA ML

-106 51%

TB3.7

SEA3.8

The market is essentially pick-em at ML TB -102 / SEA -106, and the de-vigged team totals of 3.7 and 3.8 add to exactly the 7.5 line, so the number is efficiently priced. The soft spot is the total rather than the side, since Seattle's implied 3.8 looks generous for a league-worst offense. No side edge stands out at these prices.

Pitching Matchup

Ian Seymour

8-3 · 84.1 IP

ERA

4.27

WHIP

1.13

K/9

10.6

BB/9

3.0

SEA

Emerson Hancock

6-6 · 116.1 IP

ERA

3.33

WHIP

1.07

K/9

8.4

BB/9

2.3

Hancock has the clear edge here, pairing a 2.25 BB/9 with a tidy 1.07 WHIP that signals strong command and limited traffic. Seymour misses more bats at 10.59 K/9 but his 3.00 BB/9 and 4.27 ERA point to a shakier profile. The efficiency gap favors Seattle's arm on strike-throwing and run prevention.

Offense Comparison

TBrank of 30SEA

4.4 15 Runs / G 30 3.9

0.257 3 AVG 30 0.229

1.03 23 HR / G 15 1.16

7.19 30 K / G 13 8.52

Tampa Bay brings a contact-oriented lineup, ranking 3rd in AVG but a modest 23rd in HR/game, so their damage comes in singles more than stacks against Hancock. Seattle is the polar opposite bat-for-bat, dead last in both runs and average, which makes their lineup a tough matchup for Seymour despite his walk issues. Neither side profiles as a premium full-stack tonight.

Weather & Park

2 mph out to LF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

64°

Humidity

76%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

T-Mobile Park has a retractable roof, so treat weather as a non-factor with no wind or temperature swing on scoring.

DFS Angles

Lean lightly on Tampa Bay bats given their 3rd-ranked AVG, but this is a low-total game with no strong stack appeal on either side. Seattle's league-worst offense is a fade in cash.

Target Hancock as the cleaner arm at 3.33 ERA in a favorable spot against Seattle-facing volatility. Seymour's strikeout upside (10.59 K/9) makes him a GPP dart despite the 4.27 ERA.

TB top bats