Archived pregame breakdown. This is how the matchup looked before first pitch on August 10, 2026: the odds, projected lineups and picks shown were pregame numbers and are not live. See today's games

Philadelphia Phillies

63-56

St. Louis Cardinals

59-59

7:45 PM ET Busch Stadium FS1

Back Philadelphia at a pick-em price with Jesus Luzardo the clear pitching edge over Michael McGreevy.

Luzardo misses far more bats while both offenses sit near league average, yet Phillies are priced even.

SideBET AWAY ML at PHI -104.

TotalPASS at 9.0.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Luzardo 3.32 ERA and 11.06 K/9 tower over McGreevy.
McGreevy manages just 6.07 K/9 with 8.71 H/9.
PHI ML -104 undersells this arm gap at 4.5 implied.

Best Bet Philadelphia moneyline at -104 is the highest-conviction play on Luzardo's pitching edge.

Total9.0

PHI Win51%

STL Win51%

Implied PHI4.5

Implied STL4.5

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

STL 1.5

PHI ML

-104 51%

STL ML

-104 51%

PHI4.5

STL4.5

The market has both sides at PHI -104 / STL -104 with de-vigged team totals of 4.5 apiece, treating this as a true coinflip. Given Luzardo's clear stuff advantage over McGreevy, an even price on Philadelphia looks like the soft spot. The total of 9.0 sits right at the combined implied 9.0, offering no obvious edge either way.

Pitching Matchup

PHI

Jesus Luzardo

10-5 · 143.2 IP

ERA

3.32

WHIP

1.13

K/9

11.1

BB/9

2.8

STL

Michael McGreevy

4-9 · 126.0 IP

ERA

3.64

WHIP

1.22

K/9

6.1

BB/9

2.3

Luzardo is the higher-ceiling arm, pairing an 11.06 K/9 with tidy 2.77 BB/9 and a 1.13 WHIP that points to swing-and-miss dominance. McGreevy leans on contact management with a modest 6.07 K/9 and 8.71 H/9, so he lives in the zone (2.29 BB/9) and depends on defense. The strikeout edge clearly belongs to Luzardo.

Offense Comparison

PHIRank of 30STL

4.4 #16 Runs / G 4.4 #19

0.238 #21 AVG 0.241 #20

1.25 #8 HR / G 1.03 #22

8.61 #10 K / G 7.67 #27

Both lineups are middling in average, but Philadelphia carries the power (8th in HR/game) with Schwarber and Harper anchoring a stack that can punish McGreevy's contact profile. St. Louis makes contact well (27th in strikeouts, fewest) but ranks 22nd in home runs, a tough shape against a high-whiff arm like Luzardo. Edge in stack appeal tilts to the Phillies.

Weather & Park

Current conditions

8 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

78°

Humidity

77%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Sunny 78F at outdoor Busch Stadium with an 8 mph wind blowing out to center, a flagged positive for run scoring that helps fly balls carry.

DFS Angles

Stack the Phillies against McGreevy's contact-reliant profile, with the wind out to center aiding their 8th-ranked power; Schwarber and Harper lead the group.

Target Luzardo as a strikeout anchor given his 11.06 K/9; McGreevy is a fade or GPP-only dart against the power-heavy Phillies.

PHI top bats