St. Louis Cardinals

66-65

Philadelphia Phillies

72-58

1:35 PM ET Citizens Bank Park NBCSP Day GameWeekend

Back Philadelphia on the run line at -1.5 behind Cristopher Sanchez against a strikeout-prone Cardinals lineup.

Sanchez owns a clear stuff and command edge over a St. Louis offense that whiffs more than almost anyone.

SideBET HOME RL -1.5 to avoid the -210 moneyline tax

TotalBET UNDER 8.0 given Sanchez versus a 27th-ranked whiff offense

Lean6/10

Confidence

Sanchez 2.56 ERA and 10.44 K/9 tower over Leahy's profile.
St. Louis strikes out 7.79 per game, ranked 27/30.
Phillies implied 4.5 runs, a full run over St. Louis.

Best Bet Phillies -1.5 run line is the highest-conviction play with Sanchez controlling a K-prone Cardinals lineup.

Total8.0

STL Win34%

PHI Win68%

Implied STL3.5

Implied PHI4.5

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

PHI 1.5

STL ML

+194 34%

PHI ML

-210 68%

STL3.5

PHI4.5

The de-vigged implied totals of PHI 4.5 and STL 3.5 line up with the pitching mismatch, making the Phillies the right side. PHI -210 on the moneyline is steep juice, so the -1.5 run line is the more efficient way to bet the favorite. The number does not scream value, but it beats laying more than two-to-one.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Kyle Leahy

10-4 · 122.1 IP

ERA

3.24

WHIP

1.31

K/9

8.2

BB/9

2.6

PHI

Cristopher Sanchez

16-4 · 161.2 IP

ERA

2.56

WHIP

1.22

K/9

10.4

BB/9

2.1

Sanchez is the sharper arm across the board, missing bats at a 10.44 K/9 clip with a tidy 2.12 BB/9 that points to strong command. Leahy has been solid with a 3.24 ERA and reasonable 2.58 BB/9, but his 8.18 K/9 and 9.21 H/9 leave less margin. The edge clearly belongs to the Phillies lefty.

Offense Comparison

STLRank of 30PHI

4.4 #17 Runs / G 4.6 #11

0.240 #21 AVG 0.243 #17

1.04 #22 HR / G 1.21 #11

7.79 #27 K / G 8.38 #15

The Cardinals bring a contact-light, whiff-heavy group that profiles poorly against a lefty as dominant as Sanchez, limiting stack appeal. Philadelphia's lineup carries more thump at 1.21 HR/game and a top-heavy core of Schwarber, Turner, Harper, and Stott that can punish Leahy. The Phillies are the far more attractive offense to build around.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 1:35 PM ET

10 mph out to RF · favors hitters

Conditions

Heavy rain

Temp

80°

Rain

78%

Humidity

67%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Now: 78° · 9 mph out to RF · Heavy rain at times

Heavy rain with a 78% chance of precipitation at first pitch raises real delay or postponement risk, so confirm the game goes off. The 10 mph wind out to right field is a positive for run scoring at Citizens Bank Park.

DFS Angles

Stack Philadelphia, led by Schwarber and Harper, against Leahy with the wind blowing out to right field aiding their power. St. Louis is a fade given the Sanchez matchup.

Target Cristopher Sanchez as a premium play against a Cardinals offense that fans at a 27/30 rate. Fade Leahy in a tough road spot despite the friendly ERA.

STL top bats

Jordan Walker 10.4 proj · $5,800 · 1.8x
Ivan Herrera 10.2 proj · $4,300 · 2.4x
Joshua Baez 8.5 proj · $3,600 · 2.4x
Blaze Jordan 7.9 proj · $2,700 · 2.9x
Jose Fermin 7.4 proj · $3,100 · 2.4x

PHI top bats

Kyle Schwarber 14.3 proj · $6,500 · 2.2x
Bryce Harper 14.1 proj · $6,100 · 2.3x
Bryson Stott 12.0 proj · $4,100 · 2.9x
Trea Turner 11.2 proj · $4,900 · 2.3x
Brandon Marsh 11.0 proj · $4,300 · 2.6x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Kyle Schwarber - over on total bases - top projection at 14.3 fpts with 0.45 HR.
Bryce Harper - over on hits - 1.35 projected hits versus Leahy.
Trea Turner - over on hits - team-high 1.49 projected hits.

On watch