Tampa Bay Rays

76-53

Baltimore Orioles

63-66

1:35 PM ET Oriole Park at Camden Yards MASN DivisionalDay GameWeekend

Take Tampa Bay on the moneyline at +100 behind the clear pitching mismatch with Nick Martinez.

Martinez is one of the AL's steadiest arms while Baz owns a 4-13 record and shaky command.

SideBET AWAY ML at +100.

TotalPASS, total 8.5 sits right on the combined implied 8.5 with rain risk.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Martinez 3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP dwarfs Baz's 4.08 ERA, 1.35 WHIP.
TB owns the majors' best contact bat at .261, rank 1/30.
Baz walks 3.04 per nine; TB whiffs fewest, rank 30/30.

Best Bet Tampa Bay moneyline at +100 is the highest-conviction play on the pitching edge.

Total8.5

TB Win50%

BAL Win52%

Implied TB4.2

Implied BAL4.3

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

BAL 1.5

TB ML

+100 50%

BAL ML

-108 52%

TB4.2

BAL4.3

The de-vigged implied totals sit nearly even at TB 4.2 and BAL 4.3, yet TB at even money undersells the starting-pitcher gap. Getting the superior arm as a pick-em price is the value; BAL at -108 is priced too generously given Baz's form. The ML beats my read on the away side.

Pitching Matchup

Nick Martinez

12-4 · 141.2 IP

ERA

3.05

WHIP

1.14

K/9

5.3

BB/9

1.4

BAL

Shane Baz

4-13 · 145.2 IP

ERA

4.08

WHIP

1.35

K/9

8.2

BB/9

3.0

Martinez brings elite command with a 1.40 BB/9 and 1.14 WHIP, pounding the zone even without big whiff numbers at 5.29 K/9. Baz misses more bats at 8.18 K/9 but undermines it with a 3.04 BB/9 and 1.35 WHIP. The edge is decisively Martinez, who limits free passes and traffic while Baz gives extra base runners.

Offense Comparison

TBRank of 30BAL

4.5 #14 Runs / G 4.5 #16

0.261 #1 AVG 0.236 #24

1.05 #21 HR / G 1.22 #10

7.08 #30 K / G 9.21 #5

Tampa Bay's league-leading contact profile and lowest strikeout rate is a poor stylistic draw for Baz, who relies on missing bats. Baltimore leans on power, ranking 10th in HR per game, but its high whiff rate at 5/30 in strikeouts plays right into Martinez's zone-filling approach. TB is the more reliable stack against this specific arm.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 1:35 PM ET

10 mph out to RF · favors hitters

Conditions

Patchy rain nearby

Temp

84°

Rain

57%

Humidity

47%

moderate

Now: 80° · 11 mph out to RF · Patchy rain nearby

Wind is 10 mph out to right field with an 84F day, a positive for run scoring at Camden Yards, though a 57% rain chance adds delay and washout risk.

DFS Angles

Stack Tampa Bay bats against Baz, whose walk rate and 1.35 WHIP invite traffic, and the wind out to right helps their lefties. A smaller Baltimore power pivot fits the RF breeze if you want contrarian exposure.

Target Nick Martinez as a stable floor play given his 3.05 ERA and elite command against a high-strikeout Baltimore lineup. Fade Shane Baz, whose 4-13 record and 4.08 ERA make him a risky roster.

TB top bats