Braves vs Marlins Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Apr 12th 2024

Hey sports junkies, get ready for a sizzling showdown in the Sunshine State! The red-hot Atlanta Braves, boasting a solid 7W-4L record, are packing their bags and heading to the home of the struggling Miami Marlins, who are barely treading water with a 2W-11L record. The action unfolds at the beautifully modern LoanDepot Park tonight at 7:10PM EST. The Braves are neck-and-neck in the National League conference, while the Marlins are gasping for air, lagging a full six games behind. The bookies have crunched the numbers, setting the over/under at a tantalizing 8.5, with the Braves tipped as favorites at -184 and the Marlins as underdogs at +152. The Marlins are fresh off a surprising 5-2 victory against the NYY, while the Braves are licking their wounds after a brutal 4-16 defeat against the NYM. Mother Nature seems to be on our side, with a sunny forecast, a gentle breeze from the NW, and a perfect game-time temperature of 73.9°. So, folks, get ready – because when the Braves start chopping, the Marlins might just find themselves swimming upstream!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 12, 2024 07:10PM EST

Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami

Weather: Sunny with winds from the NW at 12.5 mph. Temperature is at 73.9° with 60% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	ATL ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-184	+152	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-194	+159	9.0	-1.5/1.5
Difference	-10	+7	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

144W-98L

66.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

2W-8L

HOME

118W-127L

34.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/24/23	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Over	+2.5
04/24/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	11	Over	+2.5
04/25/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+2.5
04/25/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+2.5
04/26/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+1.5
04/26/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+1.5
04/27/23	Miami Marlins MIA	5	Over	+0.5
04/27/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Over	+0.5
05/02/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Under	-2.5
05/02/23	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Under	-2.5
05/03/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	14	Over	+11.5
05/03/23	Miami Marlins MIA	6	Over	+11.5
05/04/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+0.5
05/04/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+0.5
06/30/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+11.5
06/30/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	16	Over	+11.5
07/01/23	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Under	-1.5
07/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-1.5
07/02/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+0.5
07/02/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+0.5
09/15/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+6.5
09/15/23	Miami Marlins MIA	9	Over	+6.5
09/16/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	5	Over	+7.5
09/16/23	Miami Marlins MIA	11	Over	+7.5
09/17/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	2	Over	+9.5
09/17/23	Miami Marlins MIA	16	Over	+9.5

Braves Vs Over/Under

Marlins Vs Over/Under

Allan Winans

ERA 5.289 | IP 32.3 | 1.0W-2.0L | KO 34.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-06-24	vsARI	8-9W	4.3	10	8	5	Over
03-30-24	@PHI	12-4W	0.7	2	3	1	Over
09-21-23	@WAS	10-3W	6.0	3	1	7	Over
09-12-23	@PHI	7-6W	5.0	4	1	6	Over
09-07-23	vsSTL	5-8W	6.0	6	3	4	Over
09-01-23	@LAD	6-3W	7.0	3	0	10	Push
08-26-23	@SF	7-3W	6.0	6	2	8	Over
08-20-23	vsSF	4-3L	5.7	9	3	6	Under
08-14-23	vsNYY	3-11W	6.0	8	2	2	Over
08-09-23	@PIT	6-5W	4.0	6	4	4	Over
04-11-24	vsNYM	16-4L	5.0	8	7	1	Over
09-29-23	vsWAS	10-6L	5.3	6	6	2	Over
09-24-23	@WAS	2-3L	5.0	7	2	6	Under
09-10-23	vsPIT	2-5W	6.3	6	2	8	Under
08-21-23	vsNYM	10-4L	4.3	9	7	4	Over
08-12-23	@NYM	21-3W	7.0	4	0	9	Over
07-22-23	@MIL	3-4L	4.3	5	2	5	Under

Trevor Rogers

ERA 4.0 | IP 18.0 | 1.0W-2.0L | KO 19.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-06-24	@STL	1-3L	5.0	5	3	3	Under
03-31-24	vsPIT	9-7L	5.0	7	4	6	Over
04-19-23	vsSF	5-2L	3.0	3	1	3	Under
04-14-23	vsARI	1-5W	6.0	5	1	7	Under
04-08-23	@NYM	2-5L	4.7	4	3	5	Under
04-02-23	vsNYM	5-1L	4.3	4	4	4	Under
09-17-22	vsWAS	5-1L	1.0	3	2	1	Under
09-12-22	vsTEX	5-1L	6.3	4	2	9	Under
09-07-22	vsPHI	5-1L	6.0	5	3	8	Under
08-31-22	vsTB	5-1L	6.0	5	1	5	Under

Braves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/13	@ NYM	4-16L	10	0	Over
04/11	@ NYM	6-5W	11	0	Over
04/10	@ NYM	7-8L	12	1	Over
04/09	@ ARI	5-2W	7	3	Under
04/08	@ ARI	9-8W	15	1	Over
04/07	@ ARI	6-5W	12	1	Over
04/04	vs CWS	2-3L	5	2	Under
04/03	vs CWS	9-0W	11	1	Push
04/02	vs PHI	4-5L	7	1	Push
04/01	vs PHI	12-4W	19	4	Over
03/31	vs PHI	9-3W	13	0	Over
10/03	@ WAS	9-10L	11	2	Over
10/02	@ WAS	5-3W	11	1	Under
10/01	@ WAS	6-10L	17	0	Over
09/30	@ CHC	5-3W	6	1	Under

Marlins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/12	vs NYY	5-2W	6	1	Under
04/11	vs NYY	2-3L	4	0	Under
04/10	vs NYY	0-7L	2	0	Under
04/09	vs STL	10-3W	13	2	Over
04/08	vs STL	1-3L	8	0	Under
04/06	vs STL	5-8L	9	3	Over
04/05	@ LAA	2-10L	4	0	Over
04/04	@ LAA	1-3L	5	1	Under
04/03	@ LAA	4-7L	9	0	Over
04/02	@ PIT	7-9L	7	3	Over
04/01	@ PIT	3-9L	5	0	Over
03/31	@ PIT	2-7L	9	0	Push
03/30	@ PIT	5-6L	8	0	Over
10/04	vs NYM	2-1W	8	0	Under
10/03	vs PIT	0-3L	3	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Atlanta Braves	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Ronald Acuna Jr.	11.1	14.4	0.34	0.599	47.9%	107.8%	6.4%
#2 Ozzie Albies	8.9	11.8	0.28	0.515	37.2%	88.7%	5.6%
#3 Austin Riley	9.7	12.8	0.28	0.517	38.8%	90.5%	5.9%
#4 Matt Olson	8.8	11.9	0.283	0.604	46.2%	106.6%	8.9%
#5 Marcell Ozuna	8.3	11.0	0.276	0.565	39.0%	95.4%	7.6%
#6 Adam Duvall	7.6	10.1	0.245	0.522	33.0%	85.2%	6.3%
#7 Michael Harris II	8.1	10.4	0.293	0.478	35.3%	83.1%	3.6%
#8 Orlando Arcia	6.7	8.8	0.267	0.424	35.3%	77.7%	3.5%
#9 Travis d’Arnaud	6.7	8.9	0.224	0.388	31.6%	70.3%	3.8%
#9 Chadwick Tromp	5.4	7.1	0.125	0.188	12.5%	31.2%	0.0%

Miami Marlins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Luis Arraez	7.7	9.7	0.356	0.472	42.5%	89.6%	1.8%
#2 Bryan De La Cruz	6.9	8.9	0.253	0.401	32.5%	72.6%	3.1%
#3 Jake Burger	7.4	9.8	0.248	0.518	33.8%	85.7%	7.0%
#4 Josh Bell	6.8	8.9	0.247	0.419	36.6%	78.6%	4.0%
#5 Jazz Chisholm Jr.	6.2	8.1	0.252	0.462	33.1%	79.3%	5.4%
#6 Tim Anderson	5.9	7.3	0.248	0.299	30.7%	60.7%	0.2%
#7 Avisail Garcia	5.5	7.2	0.185	0.315	25.9%	57.4%	2.8%
#8 Emmanuel Rivera	4.9	6.3	0.265	0.364	35.2%	71.5%	1.6%
#9 Nick Fortes	4.5	5.9	0.203	0.3	28.6%	58.6%	2.1%