Orioles vs Red Sox Game Breakdown & Projections – Tue, Apr 9th 2024

Alright, folks, it’s time to loosen up those armchairs and dust off your lucky caps because we’ve got a rip-roaring AL showdown brewing at the historic Fenway Park. The 5W-4L Baltimore Orioles, still licking their wounds from a narrow loss against Pittsburgh, are flying north to challenge the 7W-3L Boston Red Sox, who are still riding high on the wave of their recent thrashing of the Angels. The first pitch is set to sizzle across the plate at 02:10PM EST, and with the O’s 3.0 games behind in the conference and the Sox nipping at their heels just 1.5 games back, you can bet your last hotdog this is gonna be a nail-biter. The bookies have the over/under at 8.5, with the Orioles at -134 and the Red Sox at 112. And to add to the drama, Mother Nature is playing ball too, serving up a sunny day with a gentle breeze from the north and a comfy 55.9°. So, whether you’re an Oriole hoping to peck away at the competition or a Red Sox ready to sock it to ’em, this is one game that promises to ruffle some feathers and knock a few socks off!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 09, 2024 02:10PM EST

Location: Fenway Park, Boston

Weather: Sunny with winds from the N at 2.2 mph. Temperature is at 55.9° with 45% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	BAL ML	BOS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-134	+112	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-132	+110	8.0	-1.5/1.5
Difference	+2	-2	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

115W-129L

56.9% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

127W-111L

43.1% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
03/30/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	10	Over	+10.5
03/30/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	9	Over	+10.5
10/01/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	6	Under	-1.5
10/01/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	1	Under	-1.5
04/01/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	8	Over	+8.5
04/01/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	9	Over	+8.5
04/02/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	5	Over	+5.5
04/02/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	9	Over	+5.5
04/24/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	4	Over	+0.5
04/24/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	5	Over	+0.5
04/25/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	8	Over	+5.5
04/25/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	6	Over	+5.5
04/26/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Under	-0.5
04/26/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	6	Under	-0.5
09/08/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	11	Over	+4.5
09/08/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Over	+4.5
09/09/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	13	Over	+16.5
09/09/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	12	Over	+16.5
09/10/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	3	Over	+1.5
09/10/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	7	Over	+1.5
09/28/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	0	Under	-6.5
09/28/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	2	Under	-6.5
09/29/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	3	Under	-5.5
09/29/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	0	Under	-5.5
09/30/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Under	-1.5
09/30/23	Baltimore Orioles BAL	5	Under	-1.5

Orioles Vs Over/Under

Red Sox Vs Over/Under

Corbin Burnes

ERA 3.392 | IP 193.7 | 10.0W-8.0L | KO 200.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-03-24	vsKC	3-4W	5.7	9	2	3	Under
03-28-24	vsLAA	3-11W	6.0	1	1	11	Over
09-28-23	@STL	0-3W	4.0	5	0	4	Under
09-22-23	@MIA	16-1L	5.0	2	0	6	Over
09-16-23	@WAS	5-9W	5.7	5	4	9	Over
09-10-23	@NYY	3-4W	8.0	0	0	7	Under
09-04-23	@PIT	2-4W	6.0	7	4	7	Under
08-29-23	@CHC	0-1W	7.0	8	1	7	Under
08-23-23	@MIN	7-8W	6.0	8	6	5	Over
08-17-23	@LAD	0-1W	7.0	2	0	9	Under

Brayan Bello

ERA 4.242 | IP 157.0 | 12.0W-11.0L | KO 132.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-02-24	@OAK	5-4W	5.0	5	4	6	Over
03-28-24	@SEA	6-4W	5.0	5	2	2	Over
09-27-23	vsTB	5-0L	6.0	9	5	3	Under
09-20-23	@TEX	5-15L	3.0	8	8	2	Over
09-15-23	@TOR	0-3L	6.0	4	3	10	Under
09-10-23	vsBAL	3-7W	5.0	7	3	4	Over
09-04-23	@TB	7-3W	6.0	5	3	7	Over
08-29-23	vsHOU	6-2L	4.7	4	3	2	Push
08-24-23	@HOU	17-1W	7.0	9	1	4	Over
08-18-23	@NYY	8-3W	6.0	6	1	4	Over

Orioles Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/09	vs PIT	2-3L	6	0	Under
04/08	vs PIT	4-5L	4	0	Over
04/07	vs PIT	5-2W	12	3	Under
04/05	@ KC	4-3W	6	0	Under
04/04	@ KC	1-4L	3	0	Under
04/03	@ KC	6-4W	9	2	Over
04/02	@ LAA	1-4L	3	0	Under
04/01	@ LAA	13-4W	14	2	Over
03/30	@ LAA	11-3W	10	2	Over
10/03	@ BOS	1-6L	2	0	Under
10/02	@ BOS	5-2W	7	0	Under
10/01	@ BOS	0-3L	3	0	Under
09/30	@ BOS	2-0W	4	1	Under
09/29	@ WAS	5-1W	9	1	Under
09/28	@ WAS	1-0W	6	1	Under

Red Sox Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/09	vs LAA	12-2W	12	4	Over
04/08	vs LAA	1-2L	3	0	Under
04/07	vs LAA	8-6W	9	5	Over
04/05	vs OAK	1-0W	10	0	Under
04/04	vs OAK	5-4W	12	0	Over
04/03	vs OAK	9-0W	9	0	Over
04/02	vs SEA	5-1W	10	2	Under
04/01	vs SEA	3-4L	7	0	Under
03/31	vs SEA	0-1L	4	0	Under
03/30	vs SEA	6-4W	11	2	Over
10/03	vs BAL	6-1W	5	0	Under
10/02	vs BAL	2-5L	14	0	Under
10/01	vs BAL	3-0W	4	1	Under
09/30	vs BAL	0-2L	3	0	Under
09/29	@ TB	0-5L	3	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Baltimore Orioles	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Gunnar Henderson	11.1	14.7	0.254	0.49	35.9%	84.9%	5.0%
#2 Adley Rutschman	10.1	13.3	0.276	0.43	43.5%	86.5%	3.3%
#3 Anthony Santander	9.9	13.1	0.254	0.46	35.4%	81.4%	4.4%
#4 Ryan Mountcastle	8.9	11.7	0.268	0.45	36.3%	81.3%	4.3%
#5 Ryan O’Hearn	8.2	10.7	0.288	0.48	34.0%	82.0%	4.1%
#6 Cedric Mullins	8.6	11.5	0.231	0.414	34.1%	75.4%	3.8%
#7 Jordan Westburg	7.2	9.3	0.261	0.399	34.5%	74.4%	1.5%
#8 Colton Cowser	5.8	8.3	0.103	0.138	36.2%	50.0%	0.0%
#9 Ramon Urias	6.6	8.6	0.262	0.366	36.1%	72.7%	0.8%

Boston Red Sox	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Jarren Duran	8.2	10.5	0.294	0.482	37.6%	85.8%	2.4%
#2 Rafael Devers	7.7	10.3	0.271	0.502	39.8%	89.9%	5.7%
#3 Tyler O’Neill	8.2	10.7	0.231	0.403	34.9%	75.2%	3.8%
#4 Triston Casas	7.4	9.8	0.263	0.49	42.9%	91.8%	5.6%
#5 Masataka Yoshida	6.9	8.9	0.287	0.439	36.4%	80.3%	2.6%
#6 Ceddanne Rafaela	6.1	7.7	0.241	0.386	30.1%	68.7%	2.4%
#7 Enmanuel Valdez	5.2	6.7	0.266	0.453	33.1%	78.4%	4.3%
#8 Reese McGuire	5.2	6.5	0.267	0.358	33.2%	69.0%	0.5%
#9 David Hamilton	5.2	6.8	0.121	0.182	30.3%	48.5%	0.0%