Red Sox vs Marlins Game Breakdown

Get ready to dive into the heat of the action as the Boston Red Sox, boasting a solid 45W-39L record, cruise into the sunny climes of LoanDepot Park to face off against the underdog Miami Marlins, who are currently sitting at 30W-55L. With the first pitch set to fly at 06:40 PM EST, the stakes are high as the Red Sox aim to widen their 8.5-game gap in the American League, while the Marlins look to claw back from a 25.5-game deficit in the National League. The betting scene is buzzing with an over/under of 8.0, favoring the Sox at -145 against the Marlins’ +122. Fresh off a fiery encounter where Boston cooked Miami 8-3 just yesterday, the stage is set for another sizzling showdown. With partly cloudy skies, a gentle eastern breeze, and the mercury pushing 88 degrees, will the Marlins find a way to cool down the red-hot Sox, or will Boston continue to turn up the heat? Let’s see if the Marlins can swim upstream or if the Red Sox will keep running the bases!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: July 03, 2024 06:40PM EST

Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the E at 9.4 mph. Temperature is at 88.0° with 73% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	BOS ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-145	+122	8.0	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-142	+119	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Difference	+3	-3	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

142W-141L

58.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

134W-148L

41.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
07/02/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	8	Over	+3.0
07/02/24	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+3.0
06/27/23	Miami Marlins MIA	10	Over	+3.0
06/27/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	1	Over	+3.0
06/28/23	Miami Marlins MIA	6	Push	-0.0
06/28/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Push	-0.0
06/29/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-6.0
06/29/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	0	Under	-6.0

Red Sox Vs Over/Under

Marlins Vs Over/Under

Brayan Bello

ERA 5.551 | IP 71.3 | 7.0W-5.0L | KO 64.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
06-25-24	vsTOR	9-4L	2.3	5	7	2	Over
06-19-24	@TOR	7-3W	6.0	7	2	6	Over
06-14-24	vsNYY	8-1L	4.7	6	5	5	Over
06-08-24	@CWS	1-6L	4.7	9	5	2	Under
06-02-24	vsDET	8-4L	6.3	8	4	5	Over
05-28-24	@BAL	8-3W	5.0	5	3	7	Over
05-22-24	@TB	8-5W	6.0	4	3	6	Over
05-17-24	@STL	6-10L	4.7	7	5	4	Over
05-12-24	vsWAS	2-3W	5.0	4	2	1	Under
04-19-24	@PIT	8-1W	6.0	1	0	7	Over

Trevor Rogers

ERA 4.869 | IP 81.3 | 1.0W-8.0L | KO 64.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
06-27-24	@PHI	7-4W	6.0	6	3	4	Over
06-21-24	vsSEA	2-3W	6.3	4	2	5	Under
06-15-24	@WAS	0-4L	7.0	6	2	3	Under
06-09-24	vsCLE	6-3L	5.0	2	1	5	Over
06-02-24	vsTEX	6-0L	6.0	6	4	3	Under
05-27-24	@SD	1-2L	5.3	6	1	3	Under
05-21-24	vsMIL	7-5L	3.7	6	4	4	Over
05-15-24	@DET	2-0W	5.0	3	0	6	Under
05-10-24	vsPHI	8-2L	3.3	9	5	3	Over
05-04-24	@OAK	4-20L	2.3	8	8	1	Over

Red Sox Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/04	vs MIA	8-3W	13	2	Over
07/02	@ SD	4-1W	8	2	Under
07/01	@ SD	1-11L	6	1	Over
06/30	@ SD	2-9L	8	1	Over
06/27	@ TOR	4-9L	5	2	Over
06/26	@ TOR	7-6W	11	2	Over
06/25	vs CIN	7-4W	10	2	Over
06/24	vs CIN	4-3W	9	1	Under
06/23	vs CIN	2-5L	6	2	Under
06/21	vs TOR	7-3W	10	2	Over
06/20	vs TOR	4-3W	12	1	Under
06/19	vs TOR	7-3W	11	4	Over
06/18	@ NYY	9-3W	14	0	Over
06/17	@ NYY	8-4W	12	0	Over
06/16	@ NYY	1-8L	5	0	Over

Marlins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/04	@ BOS	3-8L	7	2	Over
07/02	vs PHI	6-7L	11	1	Over
07/01	vs PHI	3-2W	8	1	Under
06/30	vs PHI	0-2L	3	0	Under
06/29	vs PHI	7-4W	13	1	Over
06/28	vs KC	1-5L	5	0	Under
06/27	vs KC	2-1W	7	0	Under
06/26	vs KC	1-4L	4	0	Under
06/25	@ SEA	6-4W	7	2	Over
06/24	@ SEA	0-9L	4	0	Over
06/23	@ SEA	3-2W	7	2	Under
06/21	@ STL	4-3W	8	2	Under
06/20	@ STL	9-8W	15	2	Over
06/19	@ STL	6-7L	8	1	Over
06/18	vs WAS	1-3L	8	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Boston Red Sox	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Jarren Duran	8.6	11.1	0.287	0.497	0.388	0.885	0.357	0.029
#2 Rob Refsnyder	8.1	10.5	0.322	0.483	0.476	0.958	0.379	0.021
#3 Tyler O’Neill	9.5	12.6	0.257	0.528	0.407	0.935	0.371	0.075
#4 Rafael Devers	8.4	11.2	0.288	0.568	0.424	0.993	0.393	0.066
#5 Connor Wong	7.1	9.1	0.324	0.465	0.423	0.887	0.359	0.033
#6 Romy Gonzalez	6.8	8.7	0.283	0.358	0.396	0.755	0.308	0.000
#7 Dominic Smith	6.3	8.5	0.213	0.327	0.347	0.673	0.278	0.020
#8 Ceddanne Rafaela	6.7	8.7	0.240	0.394	0.282	0.676	0.282	0.031
#9 David Hamilton	5.5	7.0	0.268	0.427	0.341	0.768	0.316	0.030

Miami Marlins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Jazz Chisholm Jr.	9.6	12.4	0.252	0.414	0.350	0.764	0.312	0.032
#2 Bryan De La Cruz	7.2	9.3	0.239	0.421	0.307	0.728	0.301	0.045
#3 Josh Bell	8.6	11.1	0.239	0.368	0.330	0.698	0.289	0.025
#4 Jesus Sanchez	8.8	11.4	0.231	0.374	0.307	0.681	0.283	0.034
#5 Jake Burger	7.3	9.4	0.217	0.357	0.270	0.627	0.262	0.033
#6 Nick Gordon	7.7	10.0	0.232	0.401	0.266	0.667	0.278	0.039
#7 Xavier Edwards	6.2	8.0	0.231	0.308	0.385	0.692	0.283	0.000
#8 Otto Lopez	6.1	7.8	0.252	0.350	0.294	0.644	0.270	0.018
#9 Ali Sanchez	5.5	6.6	0.267	0.267	0.467	0.733	0.298	0.000

Red Sox Notable Injuries

Vaughn Grissom OUT (2B): Avg: 0.148 SLG:0.16 Last game: 06/03/24. Impact: 1.1

Marlins Notable Injuries

Ryan Weathers OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/09/24. Impact: 7.4
Jesus Luzardo OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/18/24. Impact: 6.0
Braxton Garrett OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/19/24. Impact: 6.0