Red Sox vs Pirates Game Breakdown & Projections – Sat, Apr 20th 2024

Get ready to slide into some MLB Daily Fantasy action as the Boston Red Sox, boasting an 11-10 record, charge into PNC Park to clash with the equally eager Pittsburgh Pirates, who are sitting pretty at 11-9. It’s a mid-afternoon showdown with the first pitch at 04:05 PM EST, where standings and spirits are high, and the stakes are even higher. With the Red Sox looking to extend their recent victory and the Pirates itching to flip the script from their last meetup, the air is buzzing—not just from the partly cloudy skies and brisk winds sweeping through the stadium. The betting lines are dancing around with Boston slightly edging out as underdogs in this tight contest. So, as the temperature hovers in the cool fifties, let’s see if the Red Sox can cook up a win, or if the Pirates will sail away with the treasure today!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 20, 2024 04:05PM EST

Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the W at 11.9 mph. Temperature is at 54.0° with 38% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	BOS ML	PIT ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-104	-116	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Recent	-102	-118	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+2	-2	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

125W-128L

50.5% Win Probability

LAST 10

3W-7L

HOME

112W-134L

49.5% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/19/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	8	Over	+1.0
04/19/24	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	1	Over	+1.0
04/03/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	7	Over	+5.0
04/03/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	6	Over	+5.0
04/04/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	4	Under	-3.0
04/04/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	1	Under	-3.0
04/05/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	4	Under	-3.0
04/05/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	1	Under	-3.0

Red Sox Vs Over/Under

Pirates Vs Over/Under

Brayan Bello

ERA 3.038 | IP 26.7 | 3.0W-1.0L | KO 26.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-15-24	vsCLE	6-0L	5.7	2	0	6	Under
04-10-24	vsBAL	7-5L	5.0	2	0	6	Over
04-05-24	@LAA	8-6W	4.7	2	1	5	Over
03-30-24	@SEA	3-4L	6.0	3	1	7	Under
09-30-23	@BAL	2-5L	6.0	1	0	7	Under
09-24-23	vsCWS	3-2L	5.3	4	3	7	Under
09-18-23	@TEX	4-2W	6.0	4	2	7	Under
09-12-23	vsNYY	4-1L	4.7	3	1	7	Under
09-05-23	@TB	6-8L	3.7	3	5	5	Over
08-30-23	vsHOU	7-4L	2.7	7	6	1	Over
04-19-24	@PIT	8-1W	6.0	1	0	7	Over
04-14-24	vsLAA	4-5W	5.3	6	2	8	Over
04-09-24	vsBAL	7-1L	5.3	4	3	3	Push
04-02-24	@OAK	5-4W	5.0	5	4	6	Over
03-28-24	@SEA	6-4W	5.0	5	2	2	Over
09-27-23	vsTB	5-0L	6.0	9	5	3	Under
09-20-23	@TEX	5-15L	3.0	8	8	2	Over
09-15-23	@TOR	0-3L	6.0	4	3	10	Under
09-10-23	vsBAL	3-7W	5.0	7	3	4	Over
09-04-23	@TB	7-3W	6.0	5	3	7	Over

Mitch Keller

ERA 4.5 | IP 24.0 | 2.0W-1.0L | KO 21.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-14-24	@PHI	9-2W	7.0	8	2	4	Over
04-08-24	vsDET	4-7W	6.0	5	2	9	Over
04-03-24	@WAS	3-5L	5.3	8	5	5	Push
03-28-24	@MIA	6-5W	5.7	7	5	3	Over
09-26-23	@PHI	2-3L	6.0	3	2	6	Under
09-20-23	@CHC	13-7W	5.7	9	7	6	Over
09-14-23	vsWAS	0-2W	8.0	2	0	7	Under
09-08-23	@ATL	2-8L	5.0	12	8	4	Over
09-01-23	@STL	4-2W	6.0	5	1	8	Under
08-25-23	vsCHC	1-2W	8.0	4	0	6	Under

Red Sox Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/21	vs PIT	8-1W	12	4	Over
04/20	@ CLE	4-5L	6	0	Over
04/19	@ CLE	2-0W	5	1	Under
04/18	@ CLE	7-10L	11	3	Over
04/17	@ CLE	0-6L	3	0	Under
04/16	@ LAA	5-4W	7	3	Over
04/15	@ LAA	7-2W	11	1	Over
04/14	@ LAA	0-7L	3	0	Under
04/13	@ BAL	4-9L	8	1	Over
04/12	@ BAL	5-7L	8	1	Over
04/11	@ BAL	1-7L	2	1	Push
04/09	vs LAA	12-2W	12	4	Over
04/08	vs LAA	1-2L	3	0	Under
04/07	vs LAA	8-6W	9	5	Over
04/05	vs OAK	1-0W	10	0	Under

Pirates Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/21	@ BOS	1-8L	4	0	Over
04/19	vs NYM	1-9L	5	0	Over
04/18	vs NYM	1-3L	5	0	Under
04/17	vs NYM	3-6L	3	0	Over
04/16	vs PHI	8-2W	10	3	Over
04/15	vs PHI	3-4L	5	1	Under
04/14	vs PHI	5-2W	9	0	Under
04/13	vs PHI	1-5L	7	0	Under
04/11	@ DET	3-5L	8	2	Push
04/10	@ DET	7-4W	12	1	Over
04/09	@ BAL	3-2W	7	0	Under
04/08	@ BAL	5-4W	11	1	Over
04/07	@ BAL	2-5L	6	2	Under
04/06	vs WAS	7-4W	11	1	Over
04/05	vs WAS	3-5L	4	1	Push

Team’s Batting Order

Boston Red Sox	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Jarren Duran	10.7	13.6	0.284	0.398	38.6%	78.4%	1.1%
#2 Wilyer Abreu	9.0	11.8	0.233	0.395	37.2%	76.7%	2.3%
#3 Rob Refsnyder	7.3	10.0	0.333	1.0	33.3%	133.3%	16.7%
#4 Triston Casas	9.1	12.1	0.244	0.513	38.5%	89.7%	7.7%
#5 Connor Wong	8.3	10.4	0.349	0.581	34.9%	93.0%	7.0%
#6 Pablo Reyes	6.7	8.6	0.179	0.205	20.5%	41.0%	0.0%
#6 Masataka Yoshida	7.9	10.4	0.221	0.294	33.8%	63.2%	1.5%
#7 Bobby Dalbec	6.4	8.9	0.045	0.091	13.6%	22.7%	0.0%
#7 Reese McGuire	6.2	8.1	0.275	0.45	37.5%	82.5%	5.0%
#8 Enmanuel Valdez	6.2	8.5	0.161	0.304	21.4%	51.8%	3.6%
#9 David Hamilton	6.0	7.6	0.182	0.303	27.3%	57.6%	3.0%
#9 Ceddanne Rafaela	5.9	7.9	0.167	0.303	22.7%	53.0%	1.5%

Pittsburgh Pirates	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Oneil Cruz	9.7	12.2	0.222	0.346	27.2%	61.7%	3.7%
#2 Bryan Reynolds	8.9	11.8	0.253	0.392	44.3%	83.5%	2.5%
#3 Ke’Bryan Hayes	7.2	9.5	0.261	0.333	44.9%	78.3%	0.0%
#4 Rowdy Tellez	6.9	9.0	0.218	0.273	34.5%	61.8%	1.8%
#5 Andrew McCutchen	6.9	9.3	0.191	0.298	36.2%	66.0%	2.1%
#5 Edward Olivares	6.4	8.5	0.261	0.478	34.8%	82.6%	6.5%
#6 Jack Suwinski	7.0	9.5	0.18	0.311	31.1%	62.3%	3.3%
#7 Connor Joe	5.9	7.9	0.276	0.414	44.8%	86.2%	1.7%
#7 Jared Triolo	5.8	7.5	0.221	0.279	33.8%	61.8%	1.5%
#8 Michael A. Taylor	6.0	7.7	0.3	0.36	36.0%	72.0%	0.0%
#9 Henry Davis	5.3	7.2	0.182	0.236	34.5%	58.2%	0.0%