Cubs vs Red Sox Game Breakdown & Projections – Sat, Apr 27th 2024

Get ready to slide into some major league excitement as the high-flying Chicago Cubs, boasting a solid 17-9 record, jet over to the historic Fenway Park to lock horns with the gritty Boston Red Sox, who are sitting at a respectable 14-13 this season. The first pitch is set to fly at 4:10 PM EST, and with the Cubs just a whisker away from the top spot in the National League and the Sox clawing their way up the American League, every swing counts. The stakes are sky-high with the betting lines buzzing—Cubs favored slightly in what’s expected to be a tight showdown with an over/under of 8.5. Following a dominant Cubs victory and a Sox stumble just yesterday, the stage is set for a sunny showdown with just a hint of a breeze at Fenway. So, as the Cubs try to plant another W in their garden, and the Red Sox look to sock it back, this matchup promises to be anything but bearish or sox-standard!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 27, 2024 04:10PM EST

Location: Fenway Park, Boston

Weather: Sunny with winds from the N at 2.2 mph. Temperature is at 55.9° with 45% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	CHC ML	BOS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-122	+102	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-117	-103	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Difference	+5	-205	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

113W-140L

53.9% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

130W-119L

46.1% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/26/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	7	Under	-0.5
04/26/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	1	Under	-0.5
07/14/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	8	Over	+2.5
07/14/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	3	Over	+2.5
07/15/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	4	Over	+5.5
07/15/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	10	Over	+5.5
07/16/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	11	Over	+7.5
07/16/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	5	Over	+7.5

Cubs Vs Over/Under

Red Sox Vs Over/Under

Ben Brown

ERA 3.724 | IP 19.3 | 0.0W-0.0L | KO 18.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-23-24	vsHOU	2-7W	1.0	0	0	0	Over
04-20-24	vsMIA	3-5W	2.0	2	0	3	Under
04-15-24	@ARI	3-2W	6.0	1	1	4	Under
04-09-24	@SD	5-1W	4.7	3	0	5	Under
04-03-24	vsCOL	8-9W	4.0	3	1	5	Over
03-30-24	@TEX	2-11L	1.7	5	6	1	Over

Josh Winckowski

ERA 4.2 | IP 15.0 | 1.0W-1.0L | KO 18.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-21-24	@PIT	6-1W	3.3	3	1	1	Under
04-16-24	vsCLE	10-7L	1.0	2	3	1	Over
04-15-24	vsCLE	6-0L	1.0	2	2	1	Under
04-13-24	vsLAA	2-7W	2.0	0	0	2	Over
04-09-24	vsBAL	7-1L	2.7	9	4	4	Under
04-05-24	@LAA	8-6W	1.0	2	4	2	Over
04-02-24	@OAK	5-4W	2.0	0	0	3	Over
03-29-24	@SEA	0-1L	2.0	1	0	4	Under
09-30-23	@BAL	2-5L	1.0	3	2	2	Under
09-28-23	@BAL	0-2L	1.7	0	0	2	Under

Cubs Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/28	vs BOS	7-1W	14	0	Under
04/27	@ HOU	3-1W	7	1	Under
04/26	@ HOU	4-3W	8	1	Under
04/25	@ HOU	7-2W	6	3	Over
04/23	@ MIA	3-6L	8	0	Over
04/22	@ MIA	5-3W	7	2	Under
04/22	@ MIA	2-3L	7	0	Under
04/21	@ MIA	8-3W	10	0	Over
04/19	vs ARI	5-3W	9	1	Under
04/18	vs ARI	11-11L	14	1	Over
04/17	vs ARI	3-2W	9	1	Under
04/16	vs SEA	3-2W	8	1	Under
04/15	vs SEA	4-1W	6	3	Under
04/14	vs SEA	2-4L	4	1	Under
04/12	vs SD	2-10L	3	1	Over

Red Sox Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/28	@ CHC	1-7L	7	1	Under
04/27	vs CLE	4-5L	10	0	Over
04/26	vs CLE	8-0W	16	3	Under
04/25	vs CLE	1-4L	6	1	Under
04/23	vs PIT	6-1W	8	0	Under
04/22	vs PIT	4-2W	7	1	Under
04/21	vs PIT	8-1W	12	4	Over
04/20	@ CLE	4-5L	6	0	Over
04/19	@ CLE	2-0W	5	1	Under
04/18	@ CLE	7-10L	11	3	Over
04/17	@ CLE	0-6L	3	0	Under
04/16	@ LAA	5-4W	7	3	Over
04/15	@ LAA	7-2W	11	1	Over
04/14	@ LAA	0-7L	3	0	Under
04/13	@ BAL	4-9L	8	1	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Chicago Cubs	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Nico Hoerner	8.4	10.9	0.284	0.379	42.1%	80.0%	0.0%
#2 Mike Tauchman	7.8	10.5	0.295	0.475	54.1%	101.6%	3.3%
#3 Ian Happ	8.6	11.6	0.225	0.337	40.4%	74.2%	1.1%
#4 Christopher Morel	7.9	10.6	0.215	0.366	33.3%	69.9%	3.2%
#5 Michael Busch	8.2	10.9	0.289	0.554	39.8%	95.2%	7.2%
#6 Dansby Swanson	8.3	10.9	0.245	0.394	35.1%	74.5%	3.2%
#7 Matt Mervis	6.3	8.2	0.111	0.111	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%
#8 Yan Gomes	6.7	8.3	0.189	0.297	18.9%	48.6%	2.7%
#9 Pete Crow-Armstrong	6.1	8.2	0.429	0.857	42.9%	128.6%	14.3%

Boston Red Sox	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Jarren Duran	8.3	10.6	0.246	0.351	34.2%	69.3%	0.9%
#2 Rafael Devers	10.1	13.3	0.262	0.475	44.3%	91.8%	4.9%
#3 Tyler O’Neill	8.7	11.5	0.311	0.705	52.5%	123.0%	13.1%
#4 Wilyer Abreu	7.5	9.9	0.306	0.516	45.2%	96.8%	3.2%
#5 Enmanuel Valdez	6.4	8.7	0.145	0.263	19.7%	46.1%	2.6%
#6 Pablo Reyes	6.4	8.2	0.172	0.207	24.1%	44.8%	0.0%
#7 Bobby Dalbec	7.4	9.5	0.093	0.116	16.3%	27.9%	0.0%
#8 Reese McGuire	5.4	7.1	0.275	0.412	37.3%	78.4%	3.9%
#9 Ceddanne Rafaela	5.7	7.5	0.156	0.267	21.1%	47.8%	1.1%