Cubs vs Reds Game Breakdown

Get ready to dive into the heart of the National League action as the Chicago Cubs, with a record teetering just below the .500 mark, storm into the Great American Ball Park to face off against the equally eager Cincinnati Reds. It’s a mid-conference clash that promises sparks with both teams looking to claw their way up the standings, each sitting about a stone’s throw from the coveted top spot. The stakes are high and the bats are hot, especially after yesterday’s showdown where the Reds took the Cubs to school with a commanding 7-1 victory. With the first pitch set to soar at 07:10 PM EST under a clear sky and a gentle breeze, this matchup is not just about settling scores. The odds-makers are stirring the pot too, setting a tight line that’s got the crowd buzzing. So, as the sun sets over Cincinnati tonight, will the Cubs bear down, or will the Reds’ recent victory light a fire that’s too hot to handle?

Game Breakdown

Game Time: July 30, 2024 07:10PM EST

Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati

Weather: Sunny with winds from the WNW at 7.6 mph. Temperature is at 85.2° with 51% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	CHC ML	CIN ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-135	+113	9.0	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-138	+115	9.0	-1.5/1.5
Difference	-3	+2	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

129W-166L

58.0% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

138W-154L

42.0% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
05/31/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	5	Over	+4.5
05/31/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	4	Over	+4.5
06/01/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	5	Over	+7.5
06/01/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	7	Over	+7.5
06/02/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	5	Over	+2.5
06/02/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	2	Over	+2.5
06/06/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	4	Over	+7.5
06/06/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	8	Over	+7.5
06/07/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	2	Over	+0.5
06/07/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	3	Over	+0.5
06/08/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	3	Over	+2.5
06/08/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	4	Over	+2.5
06/09/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	4	Over	+1.5
06/09/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	2	Over	+1.5
07/29/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	1	Over	+3.5
07/29/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	7	Over	+3.5
04/03/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	6	Over	+8.5
04/03/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	7	Over	+8.5
04/04/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	12	Over	+12.5
04/04/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	5	Over	+12.5
09/01/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	6	Over	+3.5
09/01/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	2	Over	+3.5
05/26/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	9	Over	+4.5
05/26/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	0	Over	+4.5
05/27/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	8	Over	+8.5
05/27/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	5	Over	+8.5
05/28/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	8	Over	+8.5
05/28/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	5	Over	+8.5
07/31/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	6	Over	+6.5
07/31/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	5	Over	+6.5
08/01/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	9	Over	+24.5
08/01/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	20	Over	+24.5
08/02/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	6	Over	+17.5
08/02/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	16	Over	+17.5
08/03/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	3	Over	+3.5
08/03/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	5	Over	+3.5
09/01/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	2	Over	+0.5
09/01/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	3	Over	+0.5
09/02/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	1	Under	-1.5
09/02/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	2	Under	-1.5
09/03/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	15	Over	+17.5
09/03/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	7	Over	+17.5

Cubs Vs Over/Under

Reds Vs Over/Under

Justin Steele

ERA 3.363 | IP 96.3 | 2.0W-4.0L | KO 91.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
07-24-24	vsMIL	3-2L	5.3	6	2	4	Under
07-19-24	vsARI	5-2L	4.7	9	5	6	Under
07-11-24	@BAL	8-0W	7.0	3	0	4	Under
07-05-24	vsLAA	1-5W	9.0	2	1	7	Under
06-29-24	@MIL	5-3W	6.0	7	3	5	Under
06-24-24	@SF	4-5L	7.3	6	2	9	Push
06-18-24	vsSF	2-5W	6.7	4	2	8	Under
06-13-24	@TB	2-3L	6.0	3	0	5	Under
06-07-24	@CIN	2-3L	7.0	5	3	7	Under
06-01-24	vsCIN	5-7W	5.0	7	5	5	Over

Nick Martinez

ERA 3.822 | IP 73.0 | 4.0W-5.0L | KO 57.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
07-26-24	@TB	3-2W	2.0	1	0	2	Under
07-12-24	vsMIA	4-7W	3.0	3	0	2	Over
07-09-24	vsCOL	6-12W	1.3	1	0	3	Over
07-07-24	vsDET	5-1L	2.0	3	1	2	Under
07-04-24	@NYY	8-4W	2.0	2	2	0	Over
07-02-24	@NYY	5-4W	1.3	1	0	0	Push
06-28-24	@STL	0-1L	2.0	2	0	0	Under
06-23-24	vsBOS	7-4L	1.0	1	0	3	Over
06-21-24	vsBOS	2-5W	1.0	1	0	1	Under
06-19-24	@PIT	0-1L	0.7	1	1	1	Under

Cubs Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/31	vs CIN	1-7L	3	1	Under
07/30	vs KC	7-3W	12	1	Over
07/29	vs KC	9-4W	9	2	Over
07/28	vs KC	0-6L	4	0	Under
07/26	@ MIL	2-3L	6	1	Under
07/25	@ MIL	0-1L	7	0	Under
07/24	@ MIL	3-1W	8	1	Under
07/23	@ ARI	2-1W	4	0	Under
07/22	@ ARI	0-3L	4	0	Under
07/21	@ ARI	2-5L	8	0	Under
07/15	vs STL	4-5L	12	1	Push
07/15	vs STL	3-11L	7	2	Over
07/14	vs STL	5-1W	13	0	Under
07/13	vs BAL	8-0W	13	1	Under
07/12	vs BAL	4-0W	11	1	Under

Reds Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/31	@ CHC	7-1W	9	3	Under
07/30	vs TB	1-1L	6	0	Under
07/29	vs TB	0-4L	4	0	Under
07/28	vs TB	3-2W	3	0	Under
07/26	vs ATL	9-4W	12	2	Over
07/24	vs ATL	4-1W	9	1	Under
07/23	vs WAS	2-5L	5	2	Under
07/22	vs WAS	4-5L	7	1	Push
07/21	vs WAS	5-7L	7	0	Over
07/15	@ MIA	10-6W	10	6	Over
07/14	@ MIA	7-4W	11	3	Over
07/13	@ COL	8-1W	14	3	Push
07/12	@ COL	5-6L	12	2	Over
07/11	@ COL	12-6W	13	4	Over
07/10	@ COL	6-0W	8	1	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Chicago Cubs	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Nico Hoerner	8.5	11.0	0.248	0.339	0.365	0.704	0.290	0.011
#2 Michael Busch	8.9	11.7	0.266	0.461	0.409	0.870	0.348	0.040
#3 Christopher Morel	9.2	12.3	0.196	0.355	0.349	0.704	0.288	0.045
#3 Seiya Suzuki	9.3	12.2	0.262	0.476	0.380	0.856	0.346	0.048
#4 Cody Bellinger	9.0	11.6	0.269	0.410	0.365	0.776	0.317	0.029
#5 Isaac Paredes	8.7	11.6	0.247	0.439	0.422	0.861	0.343	0.044
#6 Ian Happ	8.8	11.9	0.226	0.419	0.391	0.810	0.325	0.042
#7 Dansby Swanson	7.4	9.6	0.221	0.346	0.325	0.672	0.277	0.027
#8 Pete Crow-Armstrong	6.2	7.8	0.185	0.272	0.245	0.516	0.218	0.005
#9 Miguel Amaya	5.7	7.3	0.213	0.292	0.307	0.599	0.251	0.015

Cincinnati Reds	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Jonathan India	7.8	10.3	0.262	0.397	0.429	0.826	0.331	0.024
#2 Elly De La Cruz	8.7	11.2	0.262	0.483	0.398	0.882	0.353	0.044
#3 Tyler Stephenson	8.0	10.6	0.226	0.416	0.343	0.759	0.311	0.040
#4 Spencer Steer	8.4	11.2	0.239	0.433	0.370	0.803	0.326	0.039
#5 Jeimer Candelario	8.3	10.9	0.231	0.445	0.313	0.758	0.312	0.048
#6 Stuart Fairchild	6.3	8.2	0.230	0.372	0.333	0.705	0.291	0.033
#7 Noelvi Marte	6.3	8.3	0.185	0.293	0.239	0.533	0.227	0.022
#8 Ty France	6.0	7.9	0.225	0.352	0.356	0.708	0.292	0.027
#9 Austin Slater	5.0	6.7	0.189	0.226	0.387	0.613	0.254	0.009

Cubs Notable Injuries

Cody Bellinger OUT (OF): Avg: 0.269 SLG:0.41 Last game: 07/12/24. Impact: 2.6
Hayden Wesneski OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/21/24. Impact: 2.6
Tomas Nido OUT (C): Avg: 0.19 SLG:0.294 Last game: 07/26/24. Impact: 0.8
Colten Brewer OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/08/24. Impact: 0.7
Luke Little OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/14/24. Impact: 1.2

Reds Notable Injuries

Nick Martini OUT (OF): Avg: 0.212 SLG:0.37 Last game: 07/08/24. Impact: 2.3
Luke Maile OUT (C): Avg: 0.176 SLG:0.265 Last game: 07/06/24. Impact: 1.6
Brent Suter OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/21/24. Impact: 1.2