Cubs vs Padres Game Breakdown & Projections – Tue, Apr 9th 2024

Hold onto your hats, sports fans, because we’ve got the Chicago Cubs, sitting pretty with a 6W-4L record, prowling into the den of the San Diego Padres, who are biting at their heels with a 6W-7L record. The battleground? None other than Petco Park, where the first pitch is set to sizzle across home plate at 10:05PM EST. The Cubs are nipping at the heels of the National League conference, just 2.5 games back, while the Padres are hot on their trail, a mere 3.0 games back. The betting lines are buzzing, with the over/under set at a tantalizing 8.0, the Cubs prowling at 134, and the Padres charging at -160. Fresh off a 9-8 victory against the Cubs on 04/10/24, the Padres are hungry for more, while the Cubs, smarting from their 8-9 defeat, are itching for redemption. And with the sun shining down on Petco Park, winds whispering from the North at a gentle 2.2 mph, and the mercury holding steady at a cool 50.0°, it’s a perfect day for baseball. So, buckle up, because when these two teams clash, it’s not just a game, it’s a bear and bull fight in the park!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 09, 2024 10:05PM EST

Location: Petco Park, San Diego

Weather: Sunny with winds from the N at 2.2 mph. Temperature is at 50.0° with 83% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	CHC ML	SD ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+134	-160	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+140	-168	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+6	-8	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

107W-137L

41.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

133W-114L

58.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/08/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	8	Over	+9.0
04/08/24	San Diego Padres SD	9	Over	+9.0
04/25/23	San Diego Padres SD	0	Under	-2.0
04/25/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	6	Under	-2.0
04/26/23	San Diego Padres SD	5	Push	-0.0
04/26/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	3	Push	-0.0
04/27/23	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-1.0
04/27/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	5	Under	-1.0
06/02/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	2	Under	-5.0
06/02/23	San Diego Padres SD	1	Under	-5.0
06/03/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	0	Under	-2.0
06/03/23	San Diego Padres SD	6	Under	-2.0
06/04/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	7	Push	-0.0
06/04/23	San Diego Padres SD	1	Push	-0.0
06/05/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	0	Under	-3.0
06/05/23	San Diego Padres SD	5	Under	-3.0

Cubs Vs Over/Under

Padres Vs Over/Under

Javier Assad

ERA 3.046 | IP 109.3 | 5.0W-3.0L | KO 94.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-08-24	@SD	8-9L	5.0	3	2	7	Over
04-02-24	vsCOL	2-12W	6.0	4	0	5	Over
09-30-23	@MIL	10-6W	1.7	2	0	4	Over
09-28-23	@ATL	3-5L	2.0	1	1	3	Push
09-26-23	@ATL	6-7L	1.0	1	2	2	Over
09-23-23	vsCOL	3-6W	4.0	2	0	6	Over
09-19-23	vsPIT	1-14W	5.0	5	1	8	Over
09-12-23	@COL	4-6L	3.3	5	4	4	Over
09-07-23	vsARI	6-2L	5.3	7	3	0	Push
09-02-23	@CIN	1-2L	8.0	7	0	7	Under

Joe Musgrove

ERA 3.252 | IP 91.3 | 9.0W-3.0L | KO 90.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-08-24	vsCHC	8-9W	3.0	4	4	4	Over
04-02-24	vsSTL	5-2L	7.0	5	3	6	Under
03-28-24	vsSF	4-6W	5.0	5	1	7	Over
08-25-23	@MIL	3-7L	4.0	6	5	3	Over
08-19-23	vsARI	8-1L	5.0	9	4	7	Over
08-14-23	vsBAL	4-1L	7.0	8	4	6	Under
08-09-23	@SEA	1-6L	6.0	6	1	4	Under
08-04-23	vsLAD	10-5L	7.0	5	2	4	Over
07-29-23	vsTEX	0-4W	6.0	3	0	9	Under
07-24-23	vsPIT	8-4L	4.3	8	7	3	Over
04-03-24	vsSTL	2-3W	6.0	5	1	7	Under
03-29-24	vsSF	8-3L	5.7	8	4	3	Over
07-28-23	vsTEX	1-7W	6.0	4	0	5	Push
07-23-23	@DET	1-3L	6.0	7	3	6	Under
07-18-23	@TOR	9-1W	6.0	5	1	7	Over
07-04-23	vsLAA	5-8W	7.0	3	1	11	Over
06-29-23	@PIT	4-5L	6.0	7	2	6	Over
06-23-23	vsWAS	3-13W	7.0	6	1	7	Over
06-18-23	vsTB	4-5W	6.0	6	2	1	Over
06-13-23	vsCLE	3-6W	6.0	7	3	5	Over

Cubs Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/10	vs SD	8-9L	8	0	Over
04/09	@ LAD	8-1W	7	1	Over
04/08	@ LAD	1-4L	7	0	Under
04/07	@ LAD	9-7W	9	2	Over
04/05	@ COL	9-8W	10	1	Over
04/04	@ COL	12-2W	14	4	Over
04/03	@ COL	5-0W	9	0	Under
04/02	vs TEX	9-5W	12	1	Over
04/01	vs TEX	2-11L	5	1	Over
03/30	vs TEX	3-4L	6	0	Under
10/03	vs MIL	0-4L	5	0	Under
10/02	vs MIL	10-6W	13	3	Over
10/01	vs MIL	3-4L	6	2	Under
09/30	vs ATL	3-5L	6	0	Push
09/29	vs ATL	5-6L	7	2	Over

Padres Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/10	@ CHC	9-8W	8	3	Over
04/09	vs SF	2-3L	11	0	Under
04/08	vs SF	4-0W	5	1	Under
04/07	vs SF	2-3L	6	0	Under
04/05	@ STL	3-2W	7	1	Under
04/04	@ STL	2-5L	9	0	Under
04/03	@ STL	2-6L	5	2	Push
04/02	@ SF	13-4W	16	2	Over
04/01	@ SF	6-9L	7	2	Over
03/31	@ SF	3-8L	9	3	Over
03/30	@ SF	6-4W	9	0	Over
10/03	vs CWS	2-1W	7	0	Under
10/02	vs CWS	6-1W	12	0	Under
10/01	vs CWS	3-2W	6	0	Under
09/29	vs SF	5-2W	10	1	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Chicago Cubs	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Ian Happ	7.9	10.5	0.25	0.43	42.8%	85.8%	3.6%
#2 Seiya Suzuki	7.3	9.5	0.285	0.479	40.4%	88.3%	3.7%
#3 Cody Bellinger	7.7	10.2	0.306	0.526	39.5%	92.1%	5.2%
#4 Christopher Morel	7.0	9.3	0.247	0.51	34.6%	85.7%	6.8%
#5 Dansby Swanson	7.0	9.2	0.244	0.416	37.0%	78.6%	3.9%
#6 Michael Busch	6.0	8.0	0.167	0.292	27.8%	56.9%	2.8%
#7 Nico Hoerner	6.0	7.7	0.286	0.387	38.7%	77.4%	1.5%
#8 Mike Tauchman	5.4	7.3	0.253	0.38	43.4%	81.3%	2.4%
#9 Yan Gomes	4.5	5.9	0.265	0.407	34.4%	75.1%	2.6%

San Diego Padres	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Xander Bogaerts	8.5	10.9	0.285	0.441	39.2%	83.3%	3.2%
#2 Fernando Tatis Jr.	9.6	12.5	0.257	0.448	35.6%	80.4%	4.4%
#3 Jake Cronenworth	7.0	9.1	0.229	0.379	35.2%	73.1%	2.2%
#4 Manny Machado	8.3	10.9	0.256	0.451	35.3%	80.3%	5.2%
#5 Ha-Seong Kim	7.0	9.1	0.258	0.399	40.4%	80.3%	3.2%
#6 Jurickson Profar	6.2	8.1	0.244	0.371	36.7%	73.8%	2.0%
#7 Luis Campusano	6.3	8.2	0.313	0.485	37.4%	85.9%	4.3%

Cubs Notable Injuries

Justin Steele OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 03/30/24. Impact: 8.0
Julian Merryweather OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 04/07/24. Impact: 1.5