Royals vs Braves Game Breakdown

Get ready to rumble at Truist Park tonight as the Kansas City Royals, hot on the heels of their recent skid, take another swing at the Atlanta Braves, who just shut them out yesterday! With the Royals clawing at a 7-game deficit in the AL and the Braves chasing closely behind in the NL, every pitch counts in this showdown. Kicking off at 7:20 PM EST under a partly cloudy sky with a brisk breeze, the stage is set for a nail-biter. Odds makers are leaning towards the Braves with a -155 line and an over/under that promises a tight clash at 7.5 runs. Will the Royals find their revenge or will the Braves keep their winning streak alive? Tonight, it’s all about whether Royals can conquer the Braves or if they’ll just end up playing checkers in a chess match!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: September 28, 2024 07:20PM EST

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the SSW at 13.0 mph. Temperature is at 70.0° with 73% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	KC ML	ATL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+130	-155	7.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+168	-206	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+38	-51	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

3W-7L

AWAY

122W-197L

37.3% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

190W-125L

62.7% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
09/27/24	Kansas City Royals KC	0	Under	-4.5
09/27/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Under	-4.5
04/14/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	10	Over	+5.5
04/14/23	Kansas City Royals KC	3	Over	+5.5
04/15/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	9	Over	+4.5
04/15/23	Kansas City Royals KC	3	Over	+4.5
04/16/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	5	Over	+1.5
04/16/23	Kansas City Royals KC	4	Over	+1.5

Royals Vs Over/Under

Braves Vs Over/Under

Will Smith

ERA 6.471 | IP 40.3 | 0.0W-4.0L | KO 27.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-22-24	vsSF	2-0L	7.0	3	2	5	Under
09-22-24	vsSF	2-0L	7.0	3	2	5	Under
09-16-24	vsDET	7-6L	4.7	8	4	4	Over
09-10-24	@NYY	5-0W	7.0	3	0	10	Under
09-04-24	vsCLE	1-4W	7.0	6	1	4	Under
08-30-24	@HOU	2-3L	7.0	6	1	9	Under
08-25-24	vsPHI	11-3L	5.3	11	6	3	Over
08-19-24	vsLAA	3-5W	7.0	4	2	8	Push
08-13-24	@MIN	3-13L	4.0	9	8	4	Over
08-06-24	vsBOS	6-5L	5.3	6	6	4	Over
08-25-24	vsPHI	11-3L	1.0	4	5	1	Over
08-24-24	vsPHI	11-2L	1.0	3	2	2	Over
08-20-24	vsLAA	9-5L	1.0	1	2	1	Over
08-13-24	@MIN	3-13L	1.3	3	3	1	Over
08-09-24	vsSTL	8-5L	0.3	1	2	0	Over
08-07-24	vsBOS	4-8W	1.0	0	0	0	Over
08-06-24	vsBOS	6-5L	1.0	0	0	1	Over
08-04-24	@DET	3-2W	1.0	1	0	1	Under
08-01-24	@DET	7-1W	1.0	0	0	2	Push
07-29-24	@CWS	8-5W	1.0	0	0	0	Over

Reynaldo Lopez

ERA 2.028 | IP 128.7 | 8.0W-5.0L | KO 137.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-10-24	@WAS	12-0W	1.0	1	0	1	Over
09-05-24	vsCOL	3-1L	6.0	5	2	11	Under
08-30-24	@PHI	7-2W	6.0	4	1	6	Over
08-25-24	vsWAS	5-1L	6.0	3	1	7	Under
08-20-24	vsPHI	1-3W	5.0	5	1	10	Under
07-28-24	@NYM	9-2W	3.0	3	0	2	Over
07-22-24	vsCIN	4-1L	6.0	7	4	5	Under
07-13-24	@SD	0-4L	6.0	11	3	2	Under
07-07-24	vsPHI	0-6W	6.0	2	0	6	Under
07-02-24	vsSF	5-3L	4.3	4	2	6	Push

Royals Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/29	vs ATL	0-3L	3	0	Under
09/28	vs WAS	7-4W	8	1	Over
09/27	vs WAS	3-0W	7	0	Under
09/26	vs WAS	1-0W	8	0	Under
09/24	@ SF	0-2L	3	0	Under
09/24	@ SF	0-2L	3	0	Under
09/23	@ SF	0-9L	5	0	Over
09/22	@ SF	1-2L	5	0	Under
09/20	@ DET	2-4L	7	0	Under
09/19	@ DET	1-3L	7	0	Under
09/18	@ DET	6-7L	11	1	Over
09/17	vs PIT	3-4L	8	0	Under
09/16	vs PIT	5-1W	7	1	Under
09/15	vs PIT	8-3W	8	3	Over
09/13	vs NYY	3-4L	8	1	Under

Braves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/29	@ KC	3-0W	4	1	Under
09/26	@ NYM	5-1W	10	2	Under
09/24	vs MIA	5-4W	11	2	Over
09/24	vs MIA	5-4W	11	2	Over
09/23	vs MIA	6-2W	14	3	Push
09/22	vs MIA	3-4L	9	2	Under
09/21	vs CIN	15-3W	18	6	Over
09/20	vs CIN	7-1W	10	2	Push
09/19	vs CIN	5-6L	12	3	Over
09/18	@ LAD	0-9L	4	0	Over
09/17	@ LAD	2-9L	4	0	Over
09/16	@ LAD	10-1W	10	0	Over
09/15	@ LAD	6-2W	10	2	Push
09/13	vs WAS	1-5L	6	0	Under
09/12	vs WAS	12-0W	15	4	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Kansas City Royals	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Tommy Pham	6.8	8.7	0.248	0.368	0.333	0.701	0.289	0.021
#2 Bobby Witt Jr.	8.2	10.7	0.333	0.593	0.437	1.030	0.411	0.051
#3 Michael Massey	7.0	9.1	0.258	0.443	0.314	0.757	0.313	0.040
#4 Salvador Perez	6.9	9.1	0.270	0.449	0.363	0.812	0.332	0.044
#5 MJ Melendez	6.7	8.8	0.208	0.403	0.302	0.705	0.291	0.042
#6 Yuli Gurriel	5.4	7.2	0.241	0.296	0.407	0.704	0.286	0.000
#6 Will Smith	4.7	11.8	nan	nan	nan	nan	0.000	nan
#7 Adam Frazier	5.2	6.9	0.203	0.285	0.316	0.602	0.252	0.012
#8 Maikel Garcia	5.0	6.4	0.233	0.335	0.303	0.637	0.265	0.012
#9 Kyle Isbel	5.0	6.5	0.232	0.371	0.313	0.684	0.283	0.021

Atlanta Braves	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Michael Harris II	9.2	11.8	0.266	0.429	0.324	0.753	0.311	0.037
#2 Ozzie Albies	8.9	11.6	0.249	0.402	0.321	0.723	0.299	0.026
#3 Marcell Ozuna	8.3	10.9	0.307	0.557	0.432	0.990	0.394	0.066
#4 Matt Olson	9.3	12.4	0.248	0.466	0.386	0.852	0.343	0.050
#5 Jorge Soler	6.6	8.9	0.243	0.443	0.395	0.838	0.337	0.044
#6 Ramon Laureano	6.9	8.9	0.255	0.431	0.332	0.763	0.315	0.036
#7 Travis d’Arnaud	6.5	8.7	0.231	0.408	0.330	0.738	0.304	0.041
#8 Gio Urshela	5.1	6.5	0.253	0.370	0.308	0.678	0.282	0.021
#9 Orlando Arcia	5.1	6.6	0.216	0.353	0.292	0.645	0.269	0.031

Royals Notable Injuries

Vinnie Pasquantino OUT (1B): Avg: 0.262 SLG:0.447 Last game: 08/31/24. Impact: 2.9
James McArthur OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 09/18/24. Impact: 0.7
Chris Stratton OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 09/15/24. Impact: -0.3