Royals vs Mets Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Apr 12th 2024

Alright sports junkies, buckle up for a thrill ride tonight as the red-hot Kansas City Royals, sporting a slick 9W-4L record, are storming into the Big Apple to clash with the 5W-7L New York Mets at the iconic Citi Field. We’re talking a 7:10PM EST showdown, under a misty sky, with the Royals just half a game out of the American League’s top spot and the Mets trying to claw their way out of a 2.5 game hole in the National League. If you’re into the numbers game, the over/under is pegged at a tantalizing 8.0, with the Royals at 104 and the Mets at -124. Both teams are fresh off some serious slugfests, with the Mets mauling ATL 16-4 and the Royals ripping HOU a new one with a 13-3 victory. And let’s not forget the weather, folks – we’re looking at a cool 57.0°, misty conditions, and a gentle breeze from the southeast at 6.9 mph. So, as we gear up for this epic face-off, just remember: in this royal battle, it’s the Mets’ game to lose and the Royals’ kingdom to conquer!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 12, 2024 07:10PM EST

Location: Citi Field, New York

Weather: Mist with winds from the SE at 6.9 mph. Temperature is at 57.0° with 89% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	KC ML	NYM ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+104	-124	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+103	-123	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-1	+1	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

8W-2L

AWAY

83W-161L

49.3% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

141W-102L

50.7% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
08/01/23	New York Mets NYM	6	Over	+5.0
08/01/23	Kansas City Royals KC	7	Over	+5.0
08/02/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-4.0
08/02/23	Kansas City Royals KC	4	Under	-4.0
08/03/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Over	+3.0
08/03/23	Kansas City Royals KC	9	Over	+3.0

Royals Vs Over/Under

Mets Vs Over/Under

Will Smith

ERA 4.395 | IP 57.3 | 2.0W-7.0L | KO 55.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-06-24	vsCWS	0-3W	7.0	2	0	8	Under
04-01-24	@BAL	4-6L	5.0	3	3	5	Over
09-30-23	@CWS	6-1L	7.0	3	0	7	Under
09-24-23	@STL	2-12W	7.0	6	2	6	Over
09-18-23	@COL	9-11W	5.0	5	3	6	Over
09-12-23	@LAD	2-11W	4.0	7	7	3	Over
09-06-23	@PHI	5-1L	4.0	7	3	6	Under
09-01-23	@SF	3-7W	6.0	6	2	6	Over
08-27-23	@MIL	6-10W	5.3	4	4	5	Over
08-21-23	@MIA	2-6W	5.3	5	1	7	Under
04-11-24	vsHOU	3-13W	5.0	5	1	4	Over
04-05-24	vsCWS	1-2W	6.3	2	1	4	Under
03-31-24	vsMIN	0-11W	7.0	3	0	10	Over
09-18-23	vsCLE	4-6W	6.0	8	4	4	Over
09-12-23	@CWS	2-6L	5.3	9	6	2	Under
09-05-23	vsCWS	6-7W	5.0	9	6	2	Over
08-25-23	@SEA	5-7L	4.0	9	4	6	Over
08-19-23	@CHC	4-6L	3.7	9	6	3	Over
08-14-23	vsSEA	6-7W	7.3	2	2	8	Over
08-08-23	@BOS	9-3W	6.7	5	3	4	Over
04-07-24	vsCWS	3-5W	1.0	1	0	1	Under
04-05-24	vsCWS	1-2W	0.3	1	0	1	Under
04-03-24	@BAL	3-4L	0.7	2	2	1	Under
04-02-24	@BAL	4-1W	1.0	0	0	1	Under
03-30-24	vsMIN	5-1L	1.0	2	4	0	Under
09-29-23	@SEA	0-8W	1.0	0	0	1	Under
09-26-23	@LAA	3-9W	1.0	0	0	1	Over
09-20-23	@BOS	5-15W	1.0	3	1	1	Over
09-18-23	@BOS	4-2L	0.3	2	3	1	Under
09-16-23	@CLE	1-2W	0.7	1	2	0	Under

Jose Quintana

ERA 3.568 | IP 75.7 | 3.0W-6.0L | KO 60.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-06-24	@CIN	6-9L	5.0	3	2	7	Over
03-30-24	vsMIL	7-6L	5.0	12	6	6	Over
09-08-23	@MIL	8-2L	4.0	4	2	5	Over
09-02-23	@HOU	5-4L	4.0	6	4	3	Over
08-28-23	@DET	4-1L	7.0	5	0	8	Under
08-23-23	@WAS	1-9W	6.7	1	0	2	Over
08-15-23	@ATL	0-5W	4.0	5	5	5	Under
08-09-23	@CWS	2-9W	2.0	5	4	2	Over
08-04-23	@HOU	7-3L	4.0	5	5	4	Over
07-30-23	@BAL	3-9W	3.3	10	9	5	Over
04-11-24	@ATL	16-4W	5.3	5	3	4	Over
04-05-24	@CIN	3-2W	5.7	5	1	4	Under
03-29-24	vsMIL	3-1L	4.7	6	2	4	Under
09-30-23	vsPHI	4-11W	4.0	7	4	5	Over
09-23-23	@PHI	5-7L	6.0	8	6	10	Over
09-17-23	vsCIN	4-8W	6.7	8	2	2	Over
09-11-23	vsARI	4-3L	5.0	5	2	4	Under
09-05-23	@WAS	11-5W	7.0	4	1	4	Over
08-29-23	vsTEX	2-1L	6.0	3	0	5	Under
08-23-23	@ATL	0-7L	5.3	9	5	5	Under

Royals Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/13	@ HOU	13-3W	16	2	Over
04/12	@ HOU	11-2W	11	1	Over
04/11	@ HOU	3-3L	7	0	Under
04/09	@ CWS	5-3W	6	2	Under
04/08	@ CWS	3-0W	10	1	Under
04/07	@ CWS	2-1W	7	0	Under
04/06	@ CWS	10-1W	10	2	Over
04/05	vs BAL	3-4L	10	1	Under
04/04	vs BAL	4-1W	8	0	Under
04/03	vs BAL	4-6L	7	2	Over
04/02	@ MIN	11-0W	14	5	Over
04/01	@ MIN	1-5L	5	0	Under
03/30	@ MIN	1-4L	5	1	Under
10/03	@ NYY	5-2W	11	3	Under
10/02	@ NYY	2-5L	11	1	Under

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/13	vs ATL	16-4W	16	2	Over
04/11	vs ATL	5-6L	12	1	Over
04/10	vs ATL	8-7W	11	3	Over
04/09	vs CIN	3-1W	9	1	Under
04/08	vs CIN	6-9L	11	0	Over
04/07	vs CIN	3-2W	4	1	Under
04/06	@ DET	3-6L	6	0	Over
04/06	@ DET	2-1W	3	1	Under
04/03	@ DET	0-5L	5	0	Under
04/02	@ MIL	1-4L	7	0	Under
04/01	@ MIL	6-7L	12	3	Over
03/31	@ MIL	1-3L	1	1	Under
10/04	@ MIA	1-2L	5	0	Under
10/03	@ PHI	1-9L	2	1	Over
10/02	@ PHI	4-3W	5	1	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Kansas City Royals	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Maikel Garcia	9.3	11.8	0.272	0.359	35.9%	71.7%	0.9%
#2 Bobby Witt Jr.	11.3	14.5	0.276	0.494	34.3%	83.7%	4.7%
#3 Vinnie Pasquantino	7.6	10.0	0.247	0.437	36.4%	80.1%	3.9%
#4 Salvador Perez	8.3	10.8	0.254	0.422	31.2%	73.5%	4.3%
#4 Will Smith	6.2	10.9	nan	nan	nan%	nan%	nan%
#5 MJ Melendez	8.3	10.8	0.236	0.4	35.7%	75.7%	3.0%
#6 Nelson Velazquez	8.2	11.2	0.228	0.58	32.7%	90.7%	10.5%
#9 Kyle Isbel	6.7	8.8	0.236	0.368	29.9%	66.7%	1.4%

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Brandon Nimmo	9.0	11.8	0.275	0.469	41.8%	88.6%	4.1%
#2 Starling Marte	7.3	9.2	0.248	0.324	32.4%	64.8%	1.6%
#3 Francisco Lindor	8.0	10.6	0.254	0.472	38.5%	85.6%	5.2%
#4 Pete Alonso	7.6	10.3	0.218	0.506	36.8%	87.4%	8.1%
#5 Brett Baty	6.3	8.2	0.214	0.326	30.0%	62.6%	2.6%
#6 Francisco Alvarez	7.0	9.4	0.208	0.438	31.1%	74.9%	6.6%
#7 Jeff McNeil	6.8	8.7	0.27	0.378	36.6%	74.4%	1.7%
#8 DJ Stewart	7.5	10.0	0.236	0.497	36.9%	86.6%	7.0%
#9 Harrison Bader	5.5	7.1	0.232	0.35	29.6%	64.6%	2.2%