Marlins vs Cubs Game Breakdown & Projections – Sun, Apr 21st 2024

Get ready to dive into the deep end as the floundering Miami Marlins swim upstream to the historic Wrigley Field, hoping to hook another win against the high-flying Chicago Cubs this afternoon at 02:20 PM EST. With the Marlins desperately trying to make a splash from 10.5 games back and the Cubs just a base away from the top of the National League, tensions are as high as the stakes. The odds makers are stirring the pot too, setting the game’s over/under at a teasing 8.5, with the Cubs favored to claw back after yesterday’s narrow miss. While the sun beams down on the Windy City, providing perfect baseball weather, fans are buzzing, ready to see if the Marlins can continue their surprising surge or if the Cubs will bear down and reclaim their turf. So, as the first pitch draws near, let’s see if the Marlins can keep swimming or if the Cubs’ growl is too much to handle on their home den!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 21, 2024 02:20PM EST

Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago

Weather: Sunny with winds from the W at 9.4 mph. Temperature is at 43.0° with 53% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	CHC ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+108	-130	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+112	-134	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+4	-4	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

96W-152L

47.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

124W-121L

52.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/20/24	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Under	-0.5
04/20/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	5	Under	-0.5
04/19/24	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+2.5
04/19/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	8	Over	+2.5
04/20/24	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Under	-3.5
04/20/24	Chicago Cubs CHC	2	Under	-3.5
04/28/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	2	Under	-3.5
04/28/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Under	-3.5
04/29/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	6	Over	+4.5
04/29/23	Miami Marlins MIA	7	Over	+4.5
04/30/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	3	Under	-1.5
04/30/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-1.5
05/05/23	Miami Marlins MIA	1	Under	-3.5
05/05/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	4	Under	-3.5
05/06/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-2.5
05/06/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	4	Under	-2.5
05/07/23	Miami Marlins MIA	5	Over	+0.5
05/07/23	Chicago Cubs CHC	4	Over	+0.5

Marlins Vs Over/Under

Cubs Vs Over/Under

Edward Cabrera

ERA 1.5 | IP 6.0 | 0.0W-0.0L | KO 10.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-20-24	@CHC	3-2W	6.0	3	2	6	Under
04-14-24	vsATL	9-7L	5.0	7	5	4	Over
04-08-24	@NYY	0-7L	4.7	8	7	4	Under
04-02-24	vsLAA	3-1L	5.3	4	3	5	Under
03-28-24	vsPIT	6-5L	5.0	2	2	8	Over
10-02-23	@NYM	0-1L	7.3	4	0	10	Under
09-23-23	vsMIL	4-5W	5.0	3	3	4	Over
09-17-23	vsATL	2-16W	6.0	4	0	8	Over
09-11-23	@MIL	0-12L	5.0	10	6	5	Over
09-05-23	vsLAD	3-6W	6.0	4	2	6	Over
04-15-24	vsSF	4-3L	6.0	5	1	10	Under
09-29-23	@PIT	4-3W	3.7	6	3	3	Under
09-24-23	vsMIL	1-6W	5.0	5	1	5	Under
09-18-23	vsNYM	2-1L	5.3	4	1	4	Under
09-12-23	@MIL	1-3L	4.7	1	2	5	Under
09-06-23	vsLAD	4-11W	4.0	1	0	8	Over
07-31-23	vsPHI	4-2L	3.0	2	2	3	Under
07-25-23	@TB	1-4L	2.0	4	3	0	Under
07-18-23	@STL	2-5L	5.0	2	1	6	Under
06-13-23	@SEA	3-9L	4.0	4	5	4	Over

Kyle Hendricks

ERA 12.706 | IP 17.0 | 0.0W-2.0L | KO 11.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-20-24	vsMIA	3-2L	4.7	3	1	3	Under
04-14-24	@SEA	3-2W	5.7	4	2	6	Under
04-08-24	@SD	8-9L	5.0	3	2	7	Over
04-02-24	vsCOL	2-12W	6.0	4	0	5	Over
09-30-23	@MIL	10-6W	1.7	2	0	4	Over
09-28-23	@ATL	3-5L	2.0	1	1	3	Push
09-26-23	@ATL	6-7L	1.0	1	2	2	Over
09-23-23	vsCOL	3-6W	4.0	2	0	6	Over
09-19-23	vsPIT	1-14W	5.0	5	1	8	Over
09-12-23	@COL	4-6L	3.3	5	4	4	Over
04-16-24	@ARI	11-12L	4.3	5	7	3	Over
04-10-24	@SD	2-10L	5.0	9	7	2	Over
04-05-24	vsLAD	7-9W	4.0	8	5	4	Over
03-30-24	@TEX	2-11L	3.7	9	5	2	Over
09-29-23	@MIL	3-4L	4.3	5	3	2	Under
09-21-23	vsPIT	8-6L	6.0	7	3	5	Over
09-16-23	@ARI	6-7L	5.3	7	3	3	Over
09-10-23	vsARI	2-5W	5.7	7	2	4	Under
09-05-23	vsSF	8-11W	5.3	7	5	5	Over
08-30-23	vsMIL	2-3W	6.0	4	1	6	Under

Marlins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/22	vs CHC	3-2W	8	1	Under
04/22	vs CHC	3-5L	8	1	Push
04/21	vs CHC	3-8L	6	1	Over
04/19	@ SF	1-3L	6	1	Under
04/18	@ SF	6-3W	8	0	Over
04/17	@ SF	3-4L	10	1	Under
04/16	@ ATL	7-9L	9	2	Over
04/15	@ ATL	5-1W	8	1	Under
04/14	@ ATL	1-8L	6	0	Over
04/12	vs NYY	5-2W	6	1	Under
04/11	vs NYY	2-3L	4	0	Under
04/10	vs NYY	0-7L	2	0	Under
04/09	vs STL	10-3W	13	2	Over
04/08	vs STL	1-3L	8	0	Under
04/06	vs STL	5-8L	9	3	Over

Cubs Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/22	@ MIA	2-3L	7	0	Under
04/22	@ MIA	5-3W	7	2	Push
04/21	@ MIA	8-3W	10	0	Over
04/19	vs ARI	5-3W	9	1	Push
04/18	vs ARI	11-11L	14	1	Over
04/17	vs ARI	3-2W	9	1	Under
04/16	vs SEA	3-2W	8	1	Under
04/15	vs SEA	4-1W	6	3	Under
04/14	vs SEA	2-4L	4	1	Under
04/12	vs SD	2-10L	3	1	Over
04/11	vs SD	5-1W	9	2	Under
04/10	vs SD	8-9L	8	0	Over
04/09	@ LAD	8-1W	7	1	Over
04/08	@ LAD	1-4L	7	0	Under
04/07	@ LAD	9-7W	9	2	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Miami Marlins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Luis Arraez	7.2	9.1	0.27	0.337	37.1%	70.8%	0.0%
#2 Bryan De La Cruz	8.2	10.5	0.275	0.484	29.7%	78.0%	5.5%
#3 Jazz Chisholm Jr.	8.9	11.7	0.218	0.346	34.6%	69.2%	2.6%
#4 Josh Bell	7.1	9.5	0.198	0.346	34.6%	69.1%	3.7%
#5 Jesus Sanchez	7.7	9.7	0.191	0.191	25.5%	44.7%	0.0%
#6 Tim Anderson	7.0	8.5	0.25	0.279	30.9%	58.8%	0.0%
#7 Nick Gordon	6.1	8.4	0.233	0.488	30.2%	79.1%	7.0%
#8 Emmanuel Rivera	6.0	7.5	0.242	0.242	42.4%	66.7%	0.0%
#9 Nick Fortes	5.7	7.5	0.083	0.111	16.7%	27.8%	0.0%
#9 Jhonny Pereda	7.0	7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Chicago Cubs	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Nico Hoerner	7.6	10.1	0.254	0.338	43.7%	77.5%	0.0%
#2 Patrick Wisdom	8.3	11.5	0.125	0.375	25.0%	62.5%	0.0%
#3 Cody Bellinger	7.5	10.0	0.218	0.41	34.6%	75.6%	5.1%
#4 Christopher Morel	8.0	10.7	0.205	0.359	30.8%	66.7%	3.8%
#5 Michael Busch	7.6	10.1	0.328	0.656	46.9%	112.5%	9.4%
#5 Dansby Swanson	7.9	10.4	0.243	0.392	36.5%	75.7%	2.7%
#6 Garrett Cooper	7.6	9.9	0.303	0.485	42.4%	90.9%	3.0%
#7 Nick Madrigal	5.3	7.2	0.231	0.308	30.8%	61.5%	0.0%
#7 Mike Tauchman	6.1	8.2	0.239	0.326	43.5%	76.1%	0.0%
#8 Miguel Amaya	6.8	9.0	0.282	0.462	33.3%	79.5%	2.6%
#8 Yan Gomes	6.0	7.5	0.176	0.294	17.6%	47.1%	2.9%
#9 Alexander Canario	5.0	6.8	0.333	0.778	44.4%	122.2%	11.1%